Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer has reported its latest performance in the beer sector, showing a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating resilience amid industry challenges [2][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Qingdao Beer achieved revenue of 8.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.37 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.62% [2][3]. - For the first three quarters, the total revenue exceeded 29 billion yuan, and net profit surpassed 5.27 billion yuan, with expectations for record annual profits [2][3]. Sales and Market Position - The company reported a slight increase in sales volume of 2.155 million kiloliters in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.3%, and a total increase of 1.6% for the first three quarters [6]. - The main brand's sales grew by 4.2% year-on-year, with mid-to-high-end products seeing a 6.8% increase, outperforming industry averages [6][7]. Strategic Initiatives - Qingdao Beer is focusing on brand strength, quality, and channel network advantages, accelerating product structure optimization, and innovating marketing strategies to enhance consumer experience and drive consumption [5]. - The company is actively expanding both domestic and international markets while maintaining a multi-channel approach to solidify its market position [5]. Shareholder Dynamics - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reduced its holdings from 23.34 million shares to 10.8 million shares, representing a significant decrease in ownership [8]. - As of the latest data, the top shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Qingdao Beer Group, with the latter holding 32.51% of shares [9]. Stock Performance - As of October 27, Qingdao Beer’s stock price has declined by 15.9% this year [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Tsingtao Brewery, with a target price of RMB 88.00 based on a current price of RMB 69.50 [2]. Core Insights - Tsingtao Brewery's profitability continues to improve, with H1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching RMB 20.491 billion and RMB 3.904 billion, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.11% and 7.21% year-on-year. The net profit margin improved to 19.05% [3][11]. - The company has demonstrated resilience in sales volume, achieving 4.732 million kiloliters, which is a 2.3% increase, outperforming the industry average decline of 0.3% [11]. - The product mix is optimizing, with mid-to-high-end sales volumes accounting for 42.1% of total sales, indicating a clear growth pattern favoring premium products [3][12]. Revenue Analysis - The beer business revenue increased by 1.9% in H1 2025, with a slight decline in ton price of 0.3%. However, Q2 showed a positive trend in ton price, indicating price stabilization [4][12]. - Regional performance varied, with Shandong showing solid fundamentals and East China emerging as a new growth engine, achieving revenue growth of 9.94% [4][12]. Profitability and Cost Management - Gross margin reached 43.7% in H1 2025, with a further increase to 45.84% in Q2, driven by lower unit costs due to falling raw material prices [5][13]. - The operating cash flow/net profit ratio stands at 123%, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 60%, providing reliable returns in uncertain markets [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the strategic resolve of Tsingtao Brewery in adapting to industry changes, such as the rise of on-demand retail and craft beer diversification. The company is well-positioned to benefit from consumers' renewed preference for high-quality products [14]. - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is RMB 3.52, RMB 3.75, and RMB 3.95, respectively, with a maintained target price of RMB 88 based on a 25x PE multiple for 2025 [14].