Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly regarding new IPOs and sectors such as new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][10]. Core Insights - The asset trading platform remains a clear direction for investment, with a focus on the expansion of various asset transactions and liquidity [3][10]. - The report highlights the positive trend in virtual assets, including stablecoins, with traditional financial institutions increasingly entering this space [3][10]. - Recent upgrades in subsidies for e-commerce and food delivery platforms are expected to benefit sectors like coffee and tea drinks, as well as advertising channels [3][10]. Industry Situation Tracking 1. Education - The Chinese education index increased by 2.47% from July 7 to July 11, outperforming major indices [11][20]. - Notable stock performances include New High Education Group rising by 24.18% and Fenbi increasing by 13.44% [11][20]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure due to macroeconomic impacts, with notable stock movements including Samsonite up by 3.76% and Prada down by 0.99% [22][24]. 3. Coffee and Tea Drinks - The coffee sector remains highly prosperous, with significant benefits from platform subsidies, while tea drinks also see substantial gains [26][27]. - Luckin Coffee opened 373 new stores, with a focus on both first and second-tier markets [32]. 4. E-commerce and Internet - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index saw a slight increase of 0.18%, with stocks like Beike and Dingdong rising by 6.34% and 3.85% respectively [31][36]. - The competition in the e-commerce sector remains fierce, with significant subsidy initiatives impacting profitability [31][38]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng Media Index rose by 2.2%, with stocks like NetEase Cloud Music and iQIYI showing positive performance [37][42]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $374.04 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 8.8% and 17.9% respectively [41][43]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of regulatory frameworks for virtual assets in both the US and Hong Kong [48].

Group 1: Virtual Assets and Stablecoins - The trend of virtual assets is continuously improving due to the enhancement of regulatory frameworks and increased institutional participation, with expectations of liquidity easing [2][18][25] - The global stablecoin market is projected to grow significantly, from approximately $5 billion in 2020 to around $200 billion by the end of 2024, indicating a clear expansion path for trading scenarios [25][26] - Various regions are implementing stablecoin policies, such as the U.S. passing the "Genius Act" and Hong Kong enacting the "Stablecoin Ordinance," which will take effect on August 1, 2025 [25][29] Group 2: Streaming Platforms - Music streaming platforms are identified as high-quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with continuous scale effects driving profit leverage [2] - The market for music subscriptions is expected to grow, with major players like Spotify and Tencent Music holding significant market shares [33] Group 3: O2O Service Platforms - The trend of strong players becoming stronger is evident, with major platforms like Beike and Tuhu expected to increase market share amid a shrinking real estate and automotive aftermarket demand [2][39] - The used housing transaction volume in key cities showed a month-on-month decline, indicating a buyer's market, which may benefit established platforms [39] Group 4: Coffee, Tea, and E-commerce Delivery Platforms - The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, indicating a competitive landscape where marketing expenses are rising [2][56] - The coffee and tea segment is highlighted as a key beneficiary in the delivery battle, with significant growth in order volumes and city coverage [68][75] Group 5: K12 Education and Training - The K12 education sector is experiencing a resurgence in non-subject training demand, with a significant reduction in subject-based training institutions, leading to a scarcity of quality compliant products [2][86] - Major players in the K12 sector, such as New Oriental and TAL Education, are showing strong performance with revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [91]

风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：K12 教培行业高景气维持，地方成建制连锁品牌仍然稀缺，看好存量头部机构持续扩大市场份额。 奢侈品：宏观经济影响奢侈品销售表现，景气略有承压，但部分抓住需求趋势的品牌表现突出，建议关注。 咖啡茶饮：行业景气度稳健向上，京东近期减少中小商家外卖补贴力度，关注平台补贴节奏变化对行业影响。 OTA：行业景气度稳健向上，旅游大盘稳健增长，OTA 渠道价值依旧不容忽视，携程海外业务"招兵买马"加速扩 张。 电商：电商大盘景气略有承压，阿里/京东/美团在电商&外卖&即时零售上的竞争依旧持续，近期部分地区国补暂 停;电商平台依旧处于"618"活动大促期，关注大促收官平台表现。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需相关的优质互联网资产，规模效应持续驱动盈利杠杆释放，行业高景气度维 持，我们建议持续关注音乐订阅平台。本周 TME 拟全资收购喜马拉雅，音乐和长音频形成用户和内容互补。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：本周《Genius 法案》通过美参议 ...

影视、餐饮、航空股走强 【导读】港股高开低走，影视、餐饮、航空股走强，科网股涨跌不一 5月28日，港股市场高开低走。截至收盘，恒生指数下跌0.53%，报收于23258.31点；恒生科技指数下跌0.15%，报收于5174.64点；恒生国企指数下跌 0.31%，报收于8443.87点。 截至收盘，阿里影业、英皇文化产业、欢喜传媒分别上涨11.54%、7.69%、7.50%。 个股异动方面，万国数据下跌近10%。消息面上，该公司发布公告称，将发行本金总额为5亿美元的可转换优先债券，年利率设定为2.25%，并确定初始转 换价格为每股美国存托股33.08美元。 阿里影业近日股价表现 消息面上，阿里影业管理层在业绩会上表示，未来2—3年将保持电影投资的审慎纪律性，同时将人力资源向大麦业务及IP商品销售板块倾斜。 花旗研报指出，"Chiikawa"和"蜡笔小新"等重磅IP将在新财年贡献增量收入，当前估值尚未完全反映IP衍生业务的增长潜力，存在价值重估空间。预计 2025财年核心业务将保持双位数增长，Chiikawa和蜡笔小新将在2026财年带来新贡献。 餐饮消费股走强，九毛九、特海国际、海底捞分别上涨5.53%、2.59% ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 14.69 | 美元 | 美元 17.00 | +15.7% | | | 腾讯音乐 (TME US) | | | | | | | | SVIP | 运营及利润释放 | | | 聚焦高质量会员增长，关注 | | | | | 我们小幅上调 2025 年经调整净利润 3%至 89 亿元（人民币，下同），维持 SOTP 目标价 17 美元/66 港元（1698 HK），其中：1）音乐 14 美元，参考可比 优质音乐平台及版权公司平均 20 倍市盈率；2）社交 1 美元，基于 8 倍市盈 率；3）现金 2 美元。我们持续看好在线音乐稳健增长，预计 ARPPU 提升拉动 效果将会高于会员数增加，关注会员权益、粉丝经济及长音频拉动SVIP增长， 看好订阅及广告收入增长、自制内容增加持续促进毛利率优化，股东回馈持 续，维持买入。 盈利预测变动 | | | | —————2025E————— —————2026E————— | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment improved, leading to a collective rise in major U.S. stock indices, with notable gains in popular Chinese concept stocks, particularly Tencent Music, which saw a significant increase in its stock price following positive earnings expectations and results [1][3]. Company Performance - Tencent Music's total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 7.36 billion yuan, marking an 8.7% year-over-year increase [3]. - The adjusted net profit for the same quarter was 2.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.8% year-over-year growth [3]. - Online music service revenue grew by 15.9% year-over-year to 5.8 billion yuan, while online music subscription revenue increased by 16.6% to 4.22 billion yuan [3]. - The number of paid online music users rose by 8.3% to 12.29 million, with ARPPU (average revenue per paying user) increasing to 11.4 yuan [3]. Market Outlook - Several financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have a positive outlook on Tencent Music's future growth, with ratings of "buy" or "overweight" [4]. - Morgan Stanley highlighted Tencent Music's strategic positioning and operational flexibility as key factors for maintaining resilience in uncertain macroeconomic conditions [4]. - CICC noted Tencent Music's focus on shareholder returns and the potential for continued healthy growth in its online music business driven by super member conversions and ARPPU improvements [4].