证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 07 月 18 日 网易云音乐（09899.HK） 社区生态护城河稳固，付费指标上升空间充足 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 公司以"音乐社区+技术赋能"为核心深耕垂类，构建在线音乐平台差异化优势， 在后版权时代积极扩张优质音乐内容资源，聚焦年轻化群体，在 AI 等创新技术 驱动及会员权益的持续优化下，会员规模持续扩张，对标行业来看 ARPU 值上 升空间充足，首次覆盖给予"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（首次） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：286.0 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 217 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 217 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 62.2 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 62.2 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 46.8 | | ROE（TTM） | 15.3 | | 资产负债率 | 25.0% | | 主要股东 | 丁磊 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 59.7834% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 16 153 198 相对表现 13 126 161 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -5 ...

in terms of sales and the revenue growth. We are keeping a close eye on the broader customer trend. We still see customers choose more willingness to spend on family and seasonal essentials, and they are gradually catching up on spending in most discretion categories. We remain anchored to the value proposition of discount retail for brands. Certainly upon our long standing merchandising strategy, we are also making change throughout the organizations in how we align with those priorities. Operator in great ...

Investment Ratings - Kuaishou: Buy rated, share price increased by 55% YTD and 28% post 1Q result [3] - Tencent Music: Buy rated, share price increased by 80% YTD and 37% post 1Q result [5] - NetEase: Buy rated, share price increased by 52% YTD and 25% post 1Q result [11] - Focus Media: Buy rated, share price increased by 11% YTD and 8% post 1Q result [14] - Bilibili: Buy rated, share price increased by 31% YTD and 22% post 1Q result [18] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong rally in major games and entertainment names post 1Q25 results, driven by resilient growth profiles, disciplined competition, AI applications potential, and rising expectations on game pipelines [1] - Key focus areas for the upcoming earnings season include advertising outlook, game momentum into the summer peak season, AI applications monetization, and pricing strategies [2] - The report anticipates that further upside in share prices will require continued earnings delivery or new growth engines contributing to revenue growth in future years [1] Kuaishou - Kuaishou is expected to deliver in-line results for 2Q25 with a 12% year-over-year growth in ads and a 13% growth in GMV, with a 3Q25 outlook of 14% ads growth [3][4] - The company is positioned to improve sequential ads from 2Q onwards due to higher monetization efforts, despite competition from peers [4] - The revenue target for Kling AI has been raised from US$100 million to over US$140 million for FY25 [4] Tencent Music - Tencent Music is projected to achieve a 17% year-over-year growth in music revenue for 2Q25, with an ARPU increase of 9% [8] - The company is expected to maintain good momentum in ARPU due to lower discounts on SVIP subscriptions and new content initiatives [9] - Long-term growth visibility remains strong, with expectations of mid-teen year-over-year music revenue growth [10] NetEase - NetEase is expected to report a 15% year-over-year growth in game revenue for 2Q25, with operating profit increasing by 20% [11][12] - The company is focusing on updates for its 2026 game pipeline, with expectations of stable performance from legacy titles [13] - The stock is trading at 16X 2025E PE, with potential for further EPS upgrades [13] Focus Media - Focus Media's revenue is expected to increase by 1% year-over-year in 2Q25, with operating profit up by 3% [14] - The company anticipates a 6% year-over-year sales increase in 2H25 due to rising ad demand from internet and selective consumer players [15] - The collaboration with Alipay aims to target 400K devices across tier 1/2 locations [17] Bilibili - Bilibili's game sales are projected to increase by 58% year-over-year in 2Q25, with ads up by 18% [18] - The company is expected to face a high comparison in 2H24 but has reset market expectations lower, with potential catalysts from new game approvals [19] - Despite valuation concerns, Bilibili is expected to deliver faster than industry growth in ads and livestreaming [20] Price Targets and Estimates - For NetEase, revenue estimates for 2025-27E have been slightly adjusted downwards, while net profit estimates have been raised [21] - Focus Media's revenue estimates have been trimmed slightly, but the price target has been revised up to Rmb8.3 [21] - Across game coverage, price targets and estimates for XD have been raised due to solid new game releases and better profit margins [21]

18 June 2025 | 6:46AM HKT Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Constructive outlook on faster SVIP penetration, non-subs business long-term potential; Raise TP, Buy | TME | 12m Price Target: $21.00 | Price: $18.20 | Upside: 15.4% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1698.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$82.00 | Price: HK$73.40 | Upside: 11.7% | We raise TME's TP to US$21/HK$82 and reiterate our Buy rating on the name. The stock has rallied +69% YTD (vs. HSTech +18%), on the back of solid music growth visibility and pr ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music has finalized the acquisition of Ximalaya for a total cash consideration of $1.26 billion, which includes the issuance of Class A ordinary shares [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves a total cash payment of $1.26 billion, with Tencent Music issuing Class A ordinary shares not exceeding 5.1986% of the total shares outstanding prior to the transaction [1] - Ximalaya will undergo a restructuring of certain existing businesses related to the transaction [1] - The completion of the transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and other closing conditions [1] Group 2: Recent Transactions - On May 30, HYBE sold its entire stake in SM Entertainment to Tencent Music's Hong Kong entity for approximately 243.3 billion KRW, equivalent to about 1.29 billion RMB, representing 9.38% of SM Entertainment [2][3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tencent Music reported revenue of 7.356 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.226 billion RMB, up 22.8% [5] - Online music revenue grew by 15.9% year-on-year to 5.8 billion RMB, with subscription revenue increasing by 16.6% to 4.22 billion RMB [6] - The number of online paid users rose by 8.3% to 122.9 million, with average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) increasing by 0.3 RMB to 11.4 RMB [6] Group 4: User Engagement Challenges - Monthly active users (MAUs) for Tencent Music's online music services declined by 4.0% year-on-year to 555 million [7] - The decline in MAUs poses a direct constraint on Tencent Music's revenue potential [8] Group 5: Strategic Focus - Tencent Music is shifting its focus towards paid users, a strategy common among Tencent's subsidiaries [8] - The company has decided to no longer separately disclose operational metrics for its social entertainment segment, which saw a revenue decline of 11.9% to 1.55 billion RMB in Q1 [9] Group 6: Potential Benefits of Acquisition - The acquisition of Ximalaya is expected to provide Tencent Music with significant traffic, as Ximalaya reported 303 million MAUs in 2023, with 133 million being mobile users [13] - Ximalaya has developed a unique UGC content ecosystem and holds numerous audiobook copyrights, which could offer substantial monetization opportunities [13] - Tencent Music has a history of successful acquisitions, which have been pivotal in establishing its current market position [13]

"时光企鹅"正式解锁 它长这样 给大家科普下，QQ等级从星星开始，四颗星星合成月亮，四个月亮变太阳， 四个太阳成皇 冠，皇冠之后是啥一直是个谜 。 就在今天 腾讯全球首位QQ256级用户诞生！ "腾讯"发文提到 随着该用户成功升级 一个全新的QQ等级图标—— 腾讯公司公关总监张军也在社媒上发文：全球首位QQ 256级用户啦！他的升级，也成功解锁 了一个全新的QQ等级图标——「时光企鹅」。相比而言，我自愧弗如，看了下，才到113 级。 网友热评 这是青春的记忆啊！ 腾讯也采访到了"爱芥末"，他感慨地说："拥有QQ的那一年我才十岁，转眼二十多年过去 了，能见证到新图标的诞生，意义非常重大。" 你还在用QQ吗，多少级了？ 谜底一藏就是22年，现在终于揭晓！ 据悉，这位"爱芥末"用户的账号系继承自其父亲，自2000年起便开始活跃在QQ平台上。用 户开通了QQ超级会员SVIP等加速服务，根据第三方的QQ等级排行榜，该用户位于山东青 岛，活跃天数超182年。 自从"爱芥末"的QQ达到250级，就不断有人私聊询问他升级的时间以及是否会有新图标。据 他透露，一天最多的时候能收到上百条私信，而他QQ空间的访问量也已经高达214 ...

qoq+2.7%）。我们预期随着SVIP 更高ARPPU 的会员套餐渗透率提升，25Q2 公司ARPPU 将持续提升， 或达11.6 元/月，MPU 或达1.24 亿。 Q1 社交娱乐收入15.5 亿人民币（yoy-11.9%, qoq-4.6%），同比减少主要系对直播互动功能进行了调整 和更严格的合规程序所致。我们预期25Q2 收入或达15.5 亿元（yoy-11%，qoq+0%），同比下滑主要系 公司合续缩紧叠加宏观因素导致。 随着在线音乐付费用户、ARPPU 双增，公司在线音乐收入在整体结构比重持续提高，利润率端有望持 续优化。我们预计 25-27 年归母净利润分别为104/101/112 亿元(25-26 年原预测值为 76/91 亿元，因根据 财报上调arppu，毛利率、其他收益等调整盈利预测)。因25 年有高额其他收益，我们参照可比公司，给 予26 年27 倍P/E，目标价94.86 港币(87.26 人民币)，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 机构：东方证券 研究员：项雯倩/李雨琪/金沐阳 Q1 营收73.6 亿人民币(yoy+8.7%, qoq-1.4%)，Q1 毛利率44.07% (yoy+3. ...

智通财经5月20日电，唯品会2025年第一季度财报显示，公司第一季度实现净营收263亿元，Non-GAAP 净利润23亿元。同时，一季度GMV为524亿元，活跃用户数4130万；超级VIP（SVIP）活跃用户数同比 增长18%，贡献线上销售的51%。围绕会员群体，唯品会进一步升级SVIP权益，增强"好货先享""好价 专享"的会员感知。今年一季度，唯品会在线上线下共举办二十余场私享特卖活动，吸引约30万SVIP用 户参与。 唯品会发布Q1财报：SVIP活跃用户数同比增18% ...

环球市场动态 预 期 10 年 期 美 债 利 率 仍 将 维 持 高 位 股 票 中国市场周四情绪偏低，市场受到 社融数据偏低影响，美国最新制裁 华为芯片也令科技股承压；欧洲市 场低开高走，欧元区最新制造业数 据好于预期推动市场情绪向好；美 股个别发展，美国 4 月份 PPI 及零 售销售等多项经济数据疲弱，早盘 大跌，但鲍威尔发言后市场解读为 提升降息预期，最终标指四连升， 纳指小幅回落。 外 汇 / 商 品 消息指美国可能与伊朗达成核武协 议，市场忧虑原油供应增加，拖累 周四国际油价下跌。美国经济数据 疲弱，美元汇价下滑，加上普京不 出席与乌克兰和谈，牵动国际金价 回升。 固 定 收 益 周四美国经济数据疲软，市场对美 联储的宽松预期再度升温。债券市 场反弹，前天的美债抛售被逆转， 5-10 年期美债收益率下挫超 10 个 基点。亚洲投资级债券利差收窄放 缓，收盘利差收窄 1-2 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 5 月 16 日 中 欧 美 市 场 欧美主要指数 主要指数 指数 收盘点位 1日涨跌 ( ...

报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 事件： 1Q25业绩略超彭博一致预期：实现收入73.6亿元人民币（yoy+8.7%，vs彭博一致预期+7.5%）；实现毛利润 32.4亿元，同比提升17.0%，对应毛利率为44.1%（vs彭博一致预期44.0%），环比提升0.5pct；实现经调整净利 润22.3亿元（yoy+22.8%），实现经调整归母净利润21.2亿元（yoy+24.6%，vs彭博一致预期+14.0%），对应利 润率为28.9%。股东回报方面，公司于25Q1从公开市场以约6450万美元现金回购总计590万股ADS，并已于25 年4月支付2.75亿美金年度现金股利。 1Q25公司音乐订阅业务稳步增长，社交娱乐业务降幅优于预期 在线音乐收入58.0亿元（yoy+15.9%），占总收入比例同比提升6.7pct至78.9%，增长主要得益于订阅和广告收 入的强劲增长，艺人周边及线下演出收入亦贡献一定增量。1）会员订阅收入42.2亿元（yoy+16.6%），音乐 MAU达5.55亿人（yoy-4.0%），期末订阅付费用户数达1.23亿人，同比增长8.3%，环比24Q4期末净增加190万 人，增长主要得 ...