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“人工智能+气象” 让天气“变幻可测”(探一线)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-12-05 22:03
以往提到天气,人们往往会说"变幻莫测"。而现在,在人工智能助力下,天气渐渐"变幻可测"。 人工智能技术与数值模式、超强算力协同发力,再加上预报员的专业经验,就能提前"算"出风雨雷电的 信号。速度更快、效率更高的气象预报,将加快赋能千行百业,助力经济社会高质量发展。 "目前,风雷技术的先进性及业务化应用程度表明,我国的短临预报业务在人工智能方面处于世界先进 水平。"盛杰介绍。 风清模型是全自主知识产权的人工智能全球短中期预报系统。国家气象中心天气预报技术研发室主任、 雄安气象人工智能创新研究院副院长曹勇介绍,风清模型可精准捕捉台风、暴雨等灾害天气,输出13层 高空要素与11类地面要素预报。目前,风清已实现业务化部署并向全国推广,广泛应用于防灾减灾、光 伏风电调度、航空保障等场景。 除了风雷、风清、风顺、风和,国家卫星气象中心(国家空间天气监测预警中心)还牵头研发了人工智 能风宇模型,这是空间天气链式人工智能预报模型。目前,该模型已应用于卫星通信导航、航天器轨道 管理、电力设施防护及航空安全等领域。 "人工智能+气象"新应用新场景涌现 每年5月,南海夏季风暴发拉开我国主汛期大幕,推动着我国主雨带进程。对南海夏季风 ...
全球首个全链式空间天气AI预报模型“风宇”!国家卫星气象中心牵头,联合南昌大学、华为共同研发
机器之心· 2025-07-29 09:58
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the development and significance of the "Fengyu" model, which is the world's first full-chain artificial intelligence forecasting model for space weather, enhancing China's capabilities in space weather monitoring and prediction [2][9]. Group 1: Importance of Space Weather Monitoring - The current solar activity poses threats to satellites, aircraft, and critical ground infrastructure due to unpredictable events like solar flares, likened to an invisible "cosmic tsunami" [4]. - Traditional forecasting methods rely heavily on numerical models, which are complex and time-consuming, making real-time responses challenging [5]. Group 2: Introduction of the "Fengyu" Model - The "Fengyu" model was officially launched on July 26, 2025, at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, developed by the National Satellite Meteorological Center in collaboration with Nanchang University and Huawei [8]. - The model integrates physical models, numerical forecasting, and artificial intelligence, significantly improving China's space weather forecasting capabilities [9]. Group 3: Technological Innovations of the "Fengyu" Model - The model features a pioneering "chain training structure" that integrates forecasting processes into a collaborative system, addressing the limitations of previous isolated AI models [12]. - It introduces a unique "intelligent coupling optimization mechanism" that allows for real-time collaborative optimization among different regional models, enhancing forecasting accuracy [14]. - The model is built on the MindSpore Science suite and Ascend hardware, achieving superior training efficiency and predictive accuracy compared to traditional platforms [11][18]. Group 4: Performance and Applications - The "Fengyu" model has demonstrated exceptional short-term forecasting capabilities, maintaining prediction errors for global electron density within approximately 10% during significant geomagnetic storm events [25]. - It can guide spacecraft design and operational management, optimizing satellite fuel usage and flight posture in response to predicted space weather changes [27][28]. Group 5: Future Directions - The release of the "Fengyu" model marks a significant advancement in space weather monitoring and prediction, serving as a successful case in the AI for Science domain [30]. - Future developments aim to deploy AI capabilities directly on satellites for autonomous decision-making, representing a critical evolution in aerospace AI applications [31][32].
预测太阳磁暴全球最强!首个空间天气链式AI预报模型亮相WAIC
量子位· 2025-07-29 05:05
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful development of the "Fengyu" model, which is the world's first full-chain artificial intelligence forecasting model for space weather, significantly enhancing China's capabilities in space weather prediction [2][3][6]. Group 1: Model Development and Features - The "Fengyu" model integrates physical models, numerical forecasting, and artificial intelligence, creating a tripartite structure that improves space weather forecasting capabilities [7]. - It employs innovative technologies such as upstream and downstream intelligent coupling, enabling collaborative optimization and rapid hourly forecasting across different space weather regions [8][12]. - The model is based on the MindSpore Science suite and Ascend hardware, achieving superior training efficiency and prediction accuracy compared to traditional platforms [9][15]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The model features the first international full-link intelligent modeling, covering solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere, with a flexible and efficient update mechanism [12]. - It introduces a coupling optimization mechanism that enhances the interaction between different regional models, improving the understanding and prediction accuracy of space weather phenomena [13][14]. - The model's architecture shifts from isolated operations to a collaborative approach, addressing the limitations of previous AI models in space weather forecasting [10][11]. Group 3: Data Integration and Performance - The "Fengyu" model benefits from China's "Earth-Space Integrated" observation system, which provides extensive and high-quality data for training and validation [16][18]. - It has demonstrated exceptional predictive performance, maintaining a prediction error of around 10% for global electron density during significant geomagnetic events, marking it as the best result globally [21]. - The model has applied for 11 national invention patents, indicating its innovative contributions to the field [22]. Group 4: Practical Applications - The model's predictive capabilities extend to satellite design, management, and operation, allowing for proactive measures against space weather impacts [24][25]. - It aids in optimizing satellite fuel usage and flight posture in response to predicted atmospheric changes due to space weather [26]. - The advancements in the "Fengyu" model represent a significant leap in space weather monitoring and forecasting, with implications for future AI applications in space exploration [27][28]. Group 5: Future Directions - The next step involves deploying AI capabilities directly on satellites for autonomous decision-making, marking a crucial evolution in AI applications within the aerospace sector [28][29].