Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant price increase of lemons in China, particularly the yellow lemon, which has seen prices rise 3 to 5 times compared to the previous year, with wholesale prices reaching 14.47 yuan per kilogram, up over 80% year-on-year [4][30]. Price Trends - The price of yellow lemons has surpassed that of lychees, a fruit traditionally considered expensive, with 500g of yellow lemons priced at 13.8 yuan compared to 9.9 yuan for the same weight of lychees [5]. - The price of yellow lemons has been on a continuous upward trend since June of the previous year, with significant fluctuations noted in regions like Sichuan Anju [4][30]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in lemon prices is attributed not only to increased demand but also to a sharp decline in supply due to adverse weather conditions affecting major production areas like Sichuan Anju, which accounts for over 80% of China's lemon production [28][30]. - The global supply of lemons has also been impacted, with Turkey halting exports due to frost and Spain experiencing a 25% reduction in production due to drought, leading to a broader international supply gap [30]. Market Impact - Despite the price increase, major tea brands like Mixue Ice City have not significantly altered their lemon supply or product pricing, maintaining a stable supply of lemon drinks [18][19]. - The article notes that while the rising costs are pressuring consumers and small businesses, the notion of "not being able to afford lemon water" is seen as an exaggeration [24]. Future Outlook - The upcoming harvest season in September is expected to stabilize lemon prices, although ongoing weather challenges may continue to affect production levels [31][33]. - The article highlights the importance of supply chain capabilities for tea brands, with companies like Mixue Ice City investing in direct sourcing and processing facilities to mitigate price volatility [42][43][45].

Core Insights - The price of lemons, particularly yellow lemons, has surged significantly this summer, with some varieties increasing by 3 to 5 times compared to the same period last year [1][5] - The wholesale price of lemons in China has consistently risen, reaching 14.47 yuan per kilogram in July 2025, up from 7.76 yuan per kilogram a year earlier, marking an increase of over 80% [1][15] - Yellow lemons have now surpassed lychees in price, with 500g of yellow lemons priced at 13.8 yuan compared to 9.9 yuan for the same amount of lychees [1] Price Trends - The price of yellow lemons has reached an all-time high, while the prices of other types of lemons, such as fragrant lemons, have remained stable [6][12] - The price of fragrant lemons previously surged by 30 times from 2019 to 2022 but has since dropped significantly [3][21] - The current market dynamics indicate that while lemon prices are high, they have not yet severely impacted sales for established brands like Mixue Ice City, which continues to supply lemon drinks at stable prices [6][23] Supply Chain Dynamics - The surge in lemon prices is attributed to a significant drop in supply due to adverse weather conditions affecting major production areas like Sichuan Anyue, which accounts for over 80% of China's lemon production [15][17] - International supply disruptions, such as Turkey's frost and Spain's drought leading to a 25% reduction in lemon production, have exacerbated the situation, creating a supply gap [15][17] - The export volume of Anyue lemons has increased by over 102.5% year-on-year, with self-operated exports reaching 85.86 million yuan in the first five months of the year, indicating a growing international demand [15][23] Market Impact - The rising lemon prices have led to consumer discussions about affordability, with some opting for alternatives like passion fruit due to the high cost of lemons [10][12] - Despite the price increases, major tea brands are still launching new lemon-based products, indicating that demand remains strong [13][21] - The competitive landscape in the beverage industry is shifting towards supply chain capabilities, with companies like Mixue Ice City investing in direct sourcing and production facilities to mitigate price volatility [23][25]

Core Insights - The price of lemons has surged significantly this summer, with wholesale prices reaching 14.08 yuan per kilogram in July 2025, up from 7.76 yuan per kilogram in the same month last year, marking an increase of over 80% [1][3][23] - The most affected variety is the yellow lemon, which has seen its price double in some regions, such as Anju County, where the price reached around 8 yuan per jin [3][23] - The rising prices are attributed to supply-demand imbalances caused by extreme weather conditions affecting lemon production in key regions like Turkey, Spain, and Sichuan, which produces over 70% of China's yellow lemons [21][23] Industry Impact - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a shift in lemon sourcing, with many brands transitioning from yellow lemons to the more stable-priced fragrant lemons due to cost pressures [24][30] - Major tea brands like Mixue Ice City and Luckin Coffee have been impacted by the rising costs, with reports indicating that some stores are now selling lemon drinks at significantly higher prices [9][20] - The demand for fragrant lemons is increasing as they are favored for their aromatic qualities, which enhance the sensory experience of tea beverages [25][30] Market Trends - The trend of using fragrant lemons is becoming more prevalent, with a notable increase in their usage in new beverage products, as evidenced by a report showing that 48 out of 201 new products contained fragrant lemons [25][30] - The market for lemon tea has expanded rapidly, with a significant increase in the number of dedicated lemon tea stores, reflecting a growing consumer preference for lemon-based beverages [27][30] - Despite the rising prices, some traditional restaurants continue to use yellow lemons for their distinct flavor in drinks, indicating a potential market segment that may resist the shift to fragrant lemons [19][30]

Core Viewpoint - The price of lemons has surged significantly this year, with retail prices reaching as high as 29.9 yuan per kilogram, raising concerns about potential price increases in related beverage markets [2][3][4]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of lemons began to rise in May, starting from around 9.5 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of the year to 14.02 yuan per kilogram by the end of June [7]. - Retail prices for yellow lemons have reached 10 yuan per kilogram, with premium A-grade lemons priced at 15 yuan per kilogram [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in lemon prices is attributed to a significant decrease in supply due to extreme weather conditions affecting major production areas, particularly in Sichuan's Anyue County, which accounts for over 70% of China's lemon production [10][14]. - The production in Anyue has decreased by approximately 40% compared to last year, leading to a supply shortage [14][15]. - Global lemon production has also been impacted, with countries like Turkey and Italy experiencing severe weather that has led to reduced yields [20][21]. Export Growth - The export volume of Anyue lemons reached 3 million kilograms, a significant increase compared to previous years, with export revenue rising to 128 million yuan in 2023, marking a 78% year-on-year growth [22]. Impact on Beverage Industry - The rising lemon prices are expected to affect the tea beverage market, as many popular tea brands rely heavily on lemons as a key ingredient [26]. - Major tea brands like Mixue and Nayuki have established their own supply chains to mitigate the impact of rising lemon prices, while smaller tea shops are struggling and may need to substitute with cheaper lemon varieties [27][30].