Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged past $4,000 per ounce, reaching a record high of $4,059.31 during the holiday period, with a significant increase of over 4.7% over five consecutive trading days [1] Gold Market Performance - As of October 9, the Shanghai gold futures contract rose by 4.82%, hitting a peak of 918.88 yuan per gram [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with Chow Sang Sang's selling price reaching 1,170 yuan per gram and Chow Tai Fook's at 1,168 yuan per gram [4] Year-to-Date Price Movement - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by nearly 54%, making it the best-performing asset class this year [5] Market Dynamics and Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to various factors, including the U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data releases, amplifying market volatility and driving North American ETF investors to increase their gold holdings [5][6] - The market is experiencing a divergence in risk appetite, with some investors favoring gold and U.S. Treasury bonds for safety, while others are investing in Bitcoin and U.S. stocks for speculative gains [5] Central Bank Actions - Concerns over U.S. debt have prompted central banks and private sectors to increase their gold holdings as part of a "de-dollarization" strategy [7] - As of September, central banks' gold reserves increased to 74.06 million ounces, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [7] Future Outlook - The resolution of the U.S. government shutdown is critical; if resolved, it may ease market risk aversion and apply downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, prolonged shutdowns or similar future occurrences could sustain upward pressure on gold [7] - Long-term drivers for precious metal prices include concerns over "stagflation" risks in the U.S. economy, with expectations of continued support for gold prices due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [8] - Investors are advised to diversify their investments across various precious metals, including silver, platinum, and palladium, to mitigate risks associated with gold's financial attributes [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged from $3280 to $3700 per ounce, marking an increase of over 11% [1] - Gold-related assets, including gold stocks, ETFs, and physical gold, have all seen significant price increases [1] - There are concerns about a potential market correction as investors begin to take profits ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut, with discussions centered around a reduction of either 25 or 50 basis points [1] - A 25 basis point cut may not lead to significant market reactions, as the recent price increase has already priced in expectations [1] - The more critical factor is the Fed's stance on future rate cuts beyond Q4 2025, particularly in relation to inflation responses [1] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently supported at $3675, with a strong upward trend challenging the $3700 mark [1] - The market is advised to be cautious, as the overall upward direction does not preclude the possibility of adjustments [3] - The recommendation is to wait for a price correction to the $3660-$3665 range before considering further purchases [3]