摘要今日周二（8月26日)亚盘时段，黄金价格持续攀升，于欧洲早盘时段一举跃升至近两周以来的最高 点，达3,385美元。此番金价上扬，主要受两大因素驱动：其一为市场对美国政府可能干预美联储独立 性的担忧情绪升温；其二则是普遍预期美联储将在9月的政策会议上开启降息周期。 下方初步支撑位在3,325美元，若跌破，则可能延伸至3,285美元甚至3,270美元一线。整体来看，黄金短 期维持积极走势，但需关注上方压力区域。 黄金的上涨反映出市场对政策不确定性和降息预期的双重反应。在全球经济数据公布前，金价波动或将 加大。如果美联储释放更明确的宽松信号，金价有望突破3,400美元关口； 而到了本周后期，二季度GDP修正值与7月核心PCE物价指数也将相继出炉。倘若这些数据表现强劲， 或者通胀水平超出市场预期，那么美元有望获得提振，与此同时，黄金价格则可能面临一定的下行压 力。 值得关注的是，依据CME FedWatch工具的最新数据显示，当前市场预计美联储在9月降息25个基点的概 率高达84.3%，相较于一个月前的61.9%，这一概率有了显著提升。这种市场预期进一步增强了黄金作 为无息资产的投资吸引力。 【最新现货黄金行情解 ...

本报记者 贺王娟 基于对未来金价走高的预测，机构纷纷调高对黄金矿业的业绩预期。中邮证券认为，尽管2025年黄金已 经取得较大涨幅，但本轮上涨尚未结束。黄金作为大类资产配置中的重要品种，在地缘政治持续扰动和 关税政策起伏的背景下，走牛仍存在较大可能性。随着金价中枢稳健上移，黄金矿企黄金产销量稳中有 升，预计未来黄金矿企业绩有望进一步提升。 今年上半年，黄金价格走高。伦敦现货黄金价格上半年累计涨幅达25.84%，并在4月下旬一度触及3500 美元/盎司的历史高位。受金价强劲走势影响，上半年，金矿上市公司业绩持续高增，整体发展态势向 好；与此同时，下游多家黄金饰品上市公司业绩表现亮眼。 苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，从中长期来看，支撑金价上涨的因素 依然坚实，市场预测，未来一年半内金价可能挑战3700美元/盎司甚至4000美元/盎司的关口，金价有望 进一步走高。 对于下游金饰企业而言，武泽伟认为，金饰企业若能持续深化产品差异化与品牌价值建设，提升品牌溢 价能力，减少对原材料价格波动的依赖，并加强产品创新，其业绩有望持续保持韧性。 金矿企业业绩向好 今年上半年，多家金矿企业业绩实现增长。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][6][43]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 increased by 57.8% year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices and a recovery in zinc smelting processing fees [1][8]. - The company achieved a revenue of 10.4 billion yuan in 2025H1, representing a 14.9% increase, with a net profit of 585 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 594 million yuan, which is an 88.63% increase [1][8]. - The significant profit growth is attributed to the substantial rise in gold prices and the recovery of zinc concentrate processing fees starting from Q4 2024 [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025H1, the average gold price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 722 yuan per gram, up 38.6% year-on-year, while the average silver price increased by 20.3% to 8171 yuan per kilogram [3][9]. - The company reported a gross profit of 1.27 billion yuan in 2025H1, a 44.9% increase from 870 million yuan in 2024H1 [9]. - Research and development expenses rose significantly to 160 million yuan in 2025H1 from 80 million yuan in 2024H1, indicating increased investment in R&D [3][9]. Production Capacity - The company has a production capacity of 860,000 tons for lead, zinc, and copper mining, with 680,000 tons for zinc products and 100,000 tons for lead products [2][8]. - The annual production of lead and zinc metals exceeds 40,000 tons, with gold production estimated at 1.8 to 2 tons and silver at approximately 60 tons [2][8]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.19 billion yuan, 1.38 billion yuan, and 1.49 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51%, 16%, and 8% [4][44]. - The diluted EPS for the same years is projected to be 1.11 yuan, 1.29 yuan, and 1.39 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.0, 9.5, and 8.8 [4][44].

Core Viewpoint - The recent weak U.S. non-farm employment data has led to a rebound in gold prices, with market expectations for gold rising significantly due to deteriorating economic growth and inflation outlooks in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On August 6, COMEX gold futures opened at $3434.9 per ounce, reflecting a market shift towards bullish sentiment for gold [1] - Citibank raised its three-month gold price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, adjusting the trading range from $3100-$3500 to $3300-$3600 [1] - The chief commodity analyst at Industrial Bank Research noted that the probability of gold price increases is rising as previous high valuations are being digested and seasonal volatility in U.S. stocks may intensify [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July added only 73,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 110,000, while June's figures were revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, a downward adjustment of 90% [2] - Concerns over a slowing U.S. labor market have spurred gold price increases following the data release [2] - ICBC Credit Suisse Fund highlighted that the recent rise in gold prices is partly due to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, as U.S. stock indices typically perform poorly before such cuts, supporting gold prices [2] Group 3: Institutional Outlook on Gold - Following Citibank's upward revision, several institutions expressed optimism about gold prices, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a target price of $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, citing global central bank gold purchases, recession risks, and weakening dollar credibility as key drivers [3] - DBS Bank's Chief Investment Officer stated a positive outlook for alternative asset investments, particularly in gold, setting a target price of $3765 per ounce for Q4 2025 [3] - The increasing risks and uncertainties, along with ongoing central bank reserve diversification and strong investor demand, are expected to support the gold market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of gold ETFs indicates a positive trend, driven by various economic factors and market dynamics, suggesting potential for further price increases in gold [3][4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of August 6, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) has risen by 0.17%, marking a four-day consecutive increase, with the latest price at 7.46 yuan [3]. - Over the past week, the gold ETF has accumulated a 1.29% increase [3]. - The trading volume for the gold ETF reached 1.14 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.39% [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 12.11 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the expected 110,000, with downward revisions totaling 258,000 for May and June [4]. - The resignation of a key Federal Reserve official, coupled with political actions regarding employment data, is expected to influence market perceptions of the Fed's independence and support gold prices [4]. - Recent data indicates a significant drop in the U.S. job market, which has heightened expectations for a rate cut in September [4]. Group 3: Fund Inflows and Performance Metrics - The gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, totaling 526 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 421 million yuan [4]. - The latest financing buy-in for the gold ETF reached 20.82 million yuan, with a financing balance of 3.612 billion yuan [4]. - Over the past five years, the gold ETF's net value has increased by 72.48%, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [4]. Group 4: Risk and Fee Structure - The gold ETF has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [5]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is reported at 2.39, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [5]. - The tracking error for the gold ETF over the past month is 0.002%, reflecting high tracking precision compared to similar funds [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in the stock price of Zhaojin Mining (1818.HK) due to favorable market conditions for precious metals, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data and increased expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - Zhaojin Mining's stock price surged over 8.7%, reaching a peak of 21.18 HKD, reflecting strong market sentiment towards gold and other precious metals [1] - The spot gold price broke through 3360 USD/ounce for the first time since July 25, closing up 2.2%, indicating a robust demand for gold [1] Group 2 - Citigroup has raised its gold price forecast for the next 0-3 months to 3500 USD/ounce from a previous estimate of 3300 USD/ounce, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold prices [1] - CICC has reiterated its coverage of Zhaojin Mining with an "outperform" rating and a target price of 27 HKD, citing strong growth momentum driven by expected annual gold production of 15 to 20 tons from the offshore gold mine [1] - Zhaojin Mining is expected to privatize Tietto Minerals by June 2024 and complete the acquisition of West Gold Mining, which will support its expansion and internationalization strategy, aiming for a balanced development between domestic and international operations [1] Group 3 - According to Zhongyou Securities, the offshore gold mine is anticipated to gradually release production capacity after 2027, with low costs and high output expected to significantly enhance the company's performance in the future, leading to a "buy" rating [1]

Group 1: Military Industry Surge - The military sector in the A-share market experienced a significant surge, with the defense and military industry index rising over 2% [3] - Notable stocks included Aileda and Kesi Technology, both reaching a 20% limit up, while Beifang Changlong increased by over 17% [3][4] - Other stocks such as Lijun Co., Tianjian Technology, Great Wall Military Industry, and Aerospace Electronics also hit the limit up [3][5] Group 2: Gold Price Increase - International gold prices rose, leading to a notable increase in domestic gold futures, which saw a peak increase of over 1.4% [6] - Gold-related stocks and ETFs in the A-share market also surged, with multiple stocks like Chifeng Gold and Shandong Gold rising by over 5% [6] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Movements - In the Hong Kong market, Li Fung Group saw a dramatic increase, with intraday gains exceeding 60% before narrowing [2][11] - The surge was attributed to a share redemption agreement announced by the company, which is expected to improve its financial position and reduce debt [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Western Gold is acquiring 100% equity of Xinjiang Meisheng Mining Co., Ltd. from its controlling shareholder, Xinjiang Nonferrous Metals Industry (Group) Co., Ltd., for a cash consideration of 1.655 billion yuan, enhancing its industry layout and resource base [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition price of 1.655 billion yuan represents a premium of 1421.66% compared to the book value, primarily due to the core asset of Xinjiang Meisheng, the Katerbaasu gold-copper polymetallic mine project, which has a proven ore total of 25.67 million tons and gold resources of 78.7 tons [2]. - The funding for the acquisition will come from the company's own funds and loans, and it is classified as a related party transaction but does not constitute a major asset restructuring [1][2]. Group 2: Business Performance - In 2024, Western Gold achieved a revenue of 7.001 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.68%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 290 million yuan, up 205.69% [5]. - The company produced 9.59 tons of gold in 2024, exceeding its annual target by 105.37%, and expects a net profit of 130 to 160 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 96.35% to 141.66% [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The acquisition aligns with the company's long-term development strategy and is expected to significantly enhance its gold production capacity and resource reserves, injecting new momentum into its ongoing operations [3]. - Western Gold has a complete industrial chain encompassing mining exploration, extraction, beneficiation, smelting, refining, and sales, with gold being its primary product and revenue source [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices to 1021 yuan per gram is attributed to global economic uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in the US dollar, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rising gold prices are driven by a shift in investor sentiment, with many moving away from stocks and funds to gold, reflecting a belief that gold is a more stable investment during turbulent times [3]. - The cost of gold mining has significantly increased, with rising labor and equipment costs making it more expensive to extract gold, contributing to the higher retail prices [3]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - The price increase has adversely affected consumers, particularly those planning significant purchases like wedding gold, forcing them to adjust their budgets and expectations [3]. - Retailers have noted a decline in customer inquiries about gold purchases, with many now questioning the reasons behind the price hikes rather than asking about prices [3]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors who purchased gold at lower prices are experiencing substantial gains, highlighting the potential for significant returns in the gold market [3]. - The volatility of gold prices suggests that potential investors should be cautious and consider their financial capacity to handle price fluctuations before making purchases [3].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold jewelry prices have been generally increased due to the rise in international gold prices [1] Price Adjustments - Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price has been raised to 1015 yuan per gram [1] - Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry price has been raised to 1021 yuan per gram [1]