高盛重申 2026 年底金价达 4900 美元 / 盎司的预期，还指出若私人投资者持续调整投资组合增加黄金配 置，金价有望进一步冲高。而今年迄今金价已累计上涨 55%，涨幅远超往年同期水平，印证了其看涨 逻辑的阶段性兑现。 高盛观察到央行购金热潮延续，各国为分散储备、对冲地缘政治与金融风险持续增持黄金。其数据显示 9 月各国央行购金量达 64 吨，较 8 月的 21 吨大幅增长，且判断 11 月大概率出现大量购金行为，这种 持续性的官方买盘成为金价的重要托底力量。 一方面，市场对美国进一步降息的预期强烈，高盛此前就强调降息周期中金价平均涨幅可达 22%，实 际利率下行趋势正持续为金价提供支撑。另一方面，黄金 ETF 资金流入显著增加，2025 年初前两月全 球主要黄金 ETF 吸金超 120 亿美元，创下 2020 年同期以来新高，资金面的助力进一步放大了金价上涨 动能。 日内收盘，沪金下跌1.33%，报收918.52元/克。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 美国经济运行和就业市场持续受到政府"关门"和贸易摩擦的冲击，然而随着美联储内部分歧较大并释放 鹰派信号使短期政策不确定性增加。地缘政治、金融机构"爆雷"等风险 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 41.6% to 220 million yuan. The non-recurring net profit also saw a decline of 7.5% to 220 million yuan. For the first three quarters, total revenue was 48.0 billion yuan, down 8.7%, with a net profit of 1.44 billion yuan, down 19.1%, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.27 billion yuan, down 25.0% [2][4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.65 billion yuan, marking a 16.0% increase year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 41.6% to 220 million yuan, and the non-recurring net profit also decreased by 7.5% to 220 million yuan. For the first three quarters, the company generated a total revenue of 48.0 billion yuan, which is an 8.7% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.44 billion yuan, down 19.1%, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.27 billion yuan, down 25.0% [2][4][6] Business Operations - The company experienced pressure in its wholesale business for gold and jewelry in Q3, but the gross profit amount increased. The company opened a net of 75 new stores, bringing the total to 5,625, with 76 new franchise stores and a slight decrease in direct stores. The gross profit margin improved to 7.01%, up 0.49 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising gold prices, resulting in a 25% increase in gross profit amount [6][9] Future Outlook - The company anticipates improvements in accounts receivable in Q4 2025, with expectations of a reversal of credit losses and a recovery in operating cash flow. The company has been actively managing its accounts receivable and expects to see a significant reduction in these figures in Q4 2025 [6][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the recovery of industry demand and the company's performance turning point. The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.13 yuan, 3.48 yuan, and 3.84 yuan respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [6][9]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 东方证券指出，去美元化持续推进，看好金价中期上涨。人民币国际化进程正借助黄金扩大影响力，上 海黄金交易所主导的上海金定价在非美货币市场影响力有望提升。黄金占中国央行外储比例接近9%， 但仍低于世界主要国家，未来仍有较大提升空间。尽管高金价下央行增持速度略有放缓，但已连续12个 月增持，显示提升黄金占比仍是重要目标。短期金价或受降息预期减弱、美元走强影响维持震荡；中期 美国国债总额或突破40万亿，海外通胀有望持续上行，看好金价突破4500美元/盎司并有望冲击5000美 元/盎司。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been rising due to multiple factors including a weakening US dollar index, a shift in Federal Reserve policy, easing government shutdown concerns, increased global central bank gold purchases, and heightened geopolitical risks driving safe-haven demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On November 10, international gold prices surged, with spot gold increasing by $80 per ounce, surpassing $4080 per ounce, marking a rise of over 2% [1] - As of the report, spot gold prices rose by 2.05% to $4082.75 per ounce, while spot silver prices increased by over 3% to $49.799 per ounce [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have accumulated a rise of over 55%, despite a recent decline from a historical high of over $4381 per ounce on October 20 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - According to Guangfa Futures, the US economy and job market are under pressure from government shutdowns and trade tensions, leading to increased uncertainty in short-term policies [2] - The report suggests that more central banks are increasing gold holdings, which may drive precious metals to experience a bull market similar to the 1970s [2] - The market may face 2-3 months of consolidation after reaching new highs, with potential buying opportunities if gold prices drop below $3900 per ounce [2] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold - CICC's research indicates that gold is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by structural and cyclical opportunities [3] - The trend of de-globalization and strategic security concerns may provide long-term support for emerging market central banks to increase gold reserves [3] - Economic growth pressures in the US may persist into the first half of next year, with the Federal Reserve potentially resuming rate cuts and ending balance sheet reduction, which could support investment demand for gold ETFs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that with the volatility of CBOE gold ETFs and the implied volatility of gold options returning to around 20%, gold prices are expected to stabilize. However, short-term fluctuations may occur due to weakened interest rate cut expectations and a stronger dollar. In the medium term, the total U.S. national debt may exceed $40 trillion, and overseas inflation is likely to rise, leading to a bullish outlook for gold prices, potentially breaking through $4,500 per ounce and aiming for $5,000 per ounce. The report suggests focusing on leading global copper and gold mining companies, particularly Zijin Mining (601899.SH), which is expected to see significant growth in its copper segment by 2026 [1]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Reserves - As of October, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month, adding 30,000 ounces to reach 74.09 million ounces. The value of gold assets, including gold deposits and swaps, is approximately $297.21 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of $13.92 billion [1]. - The monthly increase in gold reserves has slowed due to high gold prices, with October's addition being the smallest this year at 30,000 ounces, down from 40,000 ounces in September. However, the continuous increase indicates the importance of raising gold's proportion in foreign exchange reserves for the central bank [2]. Group 2: Gold's Proportion in Foreign Reserves - Gold now accounts for approximately 8.89% of the People's Bank of China's foreign exchange reserves, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and a significant rise of 2.92 percentage points from the end of 2024. Despite this increase, China's gold reserve proportion remains lower than that of major countries, such as India's 15.17% and Thailand's 10.56%, indicating room for growth [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The central bank's strategy of increasing gold reserves aligns with the ongoing de-dollarization and the internationalization of the renminbi. The establishment of gold delivery warehouses in Saudi Arabia and designated warehouses in Hong Kong is expected to enhance the international influence of the renminbi through gold. The medium-term outlook for gold prices is supported by the continued deterioration of the dollar's credit and its weakening status as a universal currency in global metals [4].

Core Insights - The share of the US dollar in central bank reserves is declining, while gold is being increasingly reallocated by many countries [1] - For the first time since 1996, gold's share in central bank reserves has surpassed that of US Treasury bonds [1] - Gold prices have risen significantly in 2023, increasing from 614 yuan per gram to over 900 yuan per gram, representing a nearly 50% increase [1] - Over the past decade, gold prices have surged approximately 300% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has resumed coverage of Zijin Mining (601899)(02899) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 46.1, highlighting the company's unique position due to growth in copper and gold production, effective cost control, and attractive valuation [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zijin Mining has recorded growth in both copper and gold production, which is a key factor in its positive outlook [1] - The company is noted for its effective cost control measures, contributing to its competitive advantage in the market [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley anticipates a significant widening of the copper supply-demand gap by 2026 due to three major copper mine incidents this year leading to production halts [1] - The current copper prices are expected to have substantial upside potential, driven by the anticipated supply constraints [1] - The firm is also optimistic about gold price trends, projecting that gold could reach USD 4,500 per ounce by mid-next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has sparked significant interest among the general public, leading to increased buying and selling activities in both retail and recovery markets, raising questions about whether this is a good investment opportunity or a potential risk [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have risen dramatically, with the price in Shanghai reaching a historical high of 618.8 yuan per gram, marking a 28.54% increase for the year, while international COMEX gold rose by 29.06% to $2673.9 per ounce [1][2]. - The global demand for gold has reached a record high of $382 billion in 2024, driven by both consumer and investment needs [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Several key factors are contributing to the rise in gold prices, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has initiated a period of easing with a 50 basis point rate cut in September 2024, historically correlating with rising gold prices [4]. - Central banks globally have increased their gold purchases, with total purchases exceeding 1045 tons in 2024, and China's reserves reaching 2264 tons, providing strong support for gold prices [4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict and the upcoming U.S. elections, have heightened market risk aversion, further boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Despite the excitement surrounding rising gold prices, there are inherent risks, including price volatility and potential market corrections if supportive factors weaken [5]. - For ordinary consumers, there are hidden costs associated with purchasing physical gold, such as craftsmanship fees and lower resale values, which can erode profits [5]. - The current gold price levels are at historical highs, with 40 record highs in 2024 alone, suggesting that further price increases may lead to unfavorable buying conditions [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Different investor profiles should adopt tailored strategies: - For those with immediate needs, a phased buying approach is recommended, purchasing a portion now and waiting for a price dip of 5%-10% for additional purchases [6]. - Long-term investors may consider allocating up to 5% of their assets to gold, favoring gold ETFs or spot contracts for easier liquidity and lower costs [6]. - New investors should start with small amounts in gold ETFs to understand market fluctuations without risking significant capital [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Insights - The company has significantly benefited from the rising gold prices, leading to robust growth in its performance. In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.372 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 951 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 140.98% [2][5] - The company has strengthened its production organization and operational management, maintaining stable gold production while benefiting from a substantial increase in gold prices [5] - The average selling price of gold increased by 44.13% year-on-year, contributing to enhanced profitability, with a gross margin of 52.69% and a net margin of 30.51% in Q3 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 8.644 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.91%, and a net profit of 2.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.21% [5] - The company's gold sales price for the first nine months of 2025 was 729.58 yuan per gram, with a production volume of 10.7 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.41% year-on-year [5] Cost Management - The operating cost for gold was 326.86 yuan per gram, a year-on-year increase of 16.09%. Domestic gold mine costs decreased by 1.17% year-on-year, while costs for the Ghana Vasa gold mine increased by 43.92% year-on-year [5] Future Outlook - The company is focused on its core gold mining operations, with expected earnings per share of 1.72 yuan and 2.13 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 17.37 times and 14.04 times based on the closing price on November 3 [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - Despite rising gold prices, the profitability of gold jewelry companies is declining, leading to significant store closures among major brands, including Zhou Dasheng [1][2] Group 1: Zhou Dasheng's Performance - Zhou Dasheng closed 560 stores in the past year, with a total of 4,675 stores remaining as of September 30, 2025, marking a net decrease of 560 stores year-on-year [1] - The company reported a revenue of 6.77 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 37.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 882 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1] - The operating cash flow net amount was 580 million yuan, down 55.9% year-on-year [1] - As of the end of the third quarter, total assets were 8.192 billion yuan, up 4.5% from the end of the previous year [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Major brands in the gold jewelry sector are adopting a strategy of closing low-efficiency stores while opening high-efficiency ones to enhance single-store profitability and overall network quality [2] - In the third quarter of 2025, another leading brand, Chow Tai Fook, closed 296 stores, while Luk Fook reduced its number of stores by 49 [2]