Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend [3][35] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a fluctuating market, ranging from around 20,550 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,975 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures fluctuated, with the contract price ranging from around 2,629 - 2,664 US dollars/ton [11] b. Spot Analysis - As of July 25, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 20,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,830 yuan/ton, 21,090 yuan/ton, 20,835 yuan/ton, and 20,785 yuan/ton respectively [14] - As of July 25, 2025, the premium of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a premium of 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] c. Supply and Demand Situation - In June 2025, the supply of alumina exceeded demand by 50,000 tons, compared with an excess of 290,000 tons in the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [20] - As of July 24, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory at Lianyungang was 0 tons, at Bayuquan was 20,000 tons, and at Qingdao Port was 17,000 tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [20] d. Inventory Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 115,790 tons, an increase of 6,968 tons from the previous week [25] - As of July 25, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 450,825 tons, an increase of 2,725 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 3.35% [25] - As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 462,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 44,000 tons, in Wuxi was 125,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 15,000 tons, in Foshan was 166,000 tons, in Tianjin was 24,000 tons, in Shenyang was 2,000 tons, in Gongyi was 71,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 3,000 tons [25] e. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that there will be no intervention in any exchange rate, and attention will be paid to the path of trade negotiations. The benchmark scenario in June remains unchanged. The current inflation rate is 2%, and the European Central Bank is in a good position. Corporate profits continue to offset wage increases, and wage growth is moving in the right direction. The European Central Bank maintains the main refinancing rate at 2.15% [2][34] - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2][34] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (for public comment)", aiming to further clarify the criteria for identifying improper price behaviors, improve the criteria for identifying predatory pricing, regulate market price order, and address "involution - style" competition [2][34] - The operating rate of alumina plants has rebounded, corporate profits have continued to improve, and alumina inventory remains at a low level. The output of aluminum products has increased slightly, and the industry's operating rate has gradually improved. The de - stocking of Shanghai aluminum inventory has ended, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to rise, and the inventory level has reached 450,000 tons [2][34]

Core View - The aluminum price is likely to show a fluctuating trend [4][40] Market Review Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures, AL2508, showed a slightly stronger fluctuating market, with prices ranging from around 20,240 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,660 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price showed a slightly stronger fluctuating trend, with contract prices ranging from 2,543 - 2,654 US dollars/ton [13] Spot Analysis - As of June 27, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 20,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 270 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,920 yuan/ton, 21,070 yuan/ton, 20,955 yuan/ton, and 20,905 yuan/ton respectively [16] - As of June 27, 2025, the premium of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a premium of 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] Supply and Demand Alumina Supply - Demand Gap - In May 2025, the alumina supply - demand gap was 310,000 tons, compared with a gap of 20,000 tons last month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [22] Bauxite Imports - As of May 2025, domestic bauxite imports were 17,514,458.2 tons, a decrease of 3,158,824.22 tons from the previous month. The domestic alumina inventory was 67,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period. The total domestic inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [25] Inventory Global Visible Inventory - As of June 27, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,290 tons, a decrease of 10,194 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 345,200 tons, an increase of 8,300 tons from the previous trading day, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 3.58% [32] Domestic Invisible Market Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 424,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous day [32] Macro and Fundamental Analysis - In May, the real year - on - year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.8%. On a month - on - month basis, it increased by 0.61% compared to the previous month. From January to May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment was 1,919.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment remained flat year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, fixed - asset investment in May increased by 0.05% [38] - Bauxite imports decreased significantly month - on - month. The global alumina supply - demand remains tight. Alumina inventory continues to increase but is still at a low level. Shanghai aluminum inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the inventory level is at an extremely low level in recent years. LME aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the domestic invisible market inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline [38]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures AL2505 fluctuated downward, ranging from around 20,335 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,635 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum futures price dropped significantly and then gradually entered an oscillatory trend, with the contract price running around 2,300 - 2,427 US dollars/ton. - China's major economic data is gradually stabilizing, and the expectation of introducing more stimulus policies is increasing. The inventory of alumina continues to be at an ultra - low level, while its production capacity has increased significantly and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the operating rate continues to rise. The national aluminum rod inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly. - China will increase the tariff on US goods from 84% to 125%. At the current tariff level, US goods exported to China have no market acceptance possibility, and the impact of tariffs may weaken. Aluminum prices may mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend. [3][5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures AL2505 fluctuated downward, ranging from around 20,335 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,635 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum futures price dropped significantly and then gradually entered an oscillatory trend, with the contract price running around 2,300 - 2,427 US dollars/ton. [8][12] 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of April 11, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 19,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,885 yuan/ton, 20,105 yuan/ton, 19,920 yuan/ton, and 19,885 yuan/ton respectively. As of April 11, 2025, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a premium of 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [15] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Alumina Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 0.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 million tons, in Bayuquan was 0.3 million tons, and in Qingdao Port was 0.2 million tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years. [21] - **Aluminum Rod Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total national aluminum rod inventory was 223,800 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons compared with the previous period. In terms of regions, the inventory in Foshan was 132,000 tons, in Wuxi was 38,500 tons, and in Nanchang was 16,500 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the national inventory was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years. [25] 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of April 11, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 205,627 tons, a decrease of 9,447 tons from the previous week. As of April 10, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 446,325 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 43.82%. - **Domestic Invisible Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 697,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 23,000 tons, in Wuxi was 251,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 13,000 tons, in Foshan was 250,000 tons, in Tianjin was 20,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 120,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 11,000 tons. [28] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Fed officials have indicated that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates in the short term, and the policy divergence between the Fed and the US government is emerging. China's major economic data is gradually stabilizing, and the expectation of introducing more stimulus policies is increasing. The inventory of alumina continues to be at an ultra - low level, while its production capacity has increased significantly and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the operating rate continues to rise. The national aluminum rod inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly. [5][38] 3.6 Future Outlook - China will increase the tariff on US goods from 84% to 125%. At the current tariff level, US goods exported to China have no market acceptance possibility, and the impact of tariffs may weaken. Aluminum prices may mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend. [6][39]