Group 1 - The company reported a significant decline in Q1 2025 performance, with revenue of 401 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.76%, and a net loss of 53 million yuan, primarily due to challenges in the vaccine segment from market adjustments and government procurement [1] - The nine-valent HPV vaccine is in the application stage for market approval, with progress on clinical trials and commercial production conditions being met, indicating a positive outlook for future revenue generation [2] - The company anticipates a recovery in operating performance as the nine-valent HPV vaccine and other products receive approval, projecting revenues of 3.17 billion yuan, 11.4 billion yuan, and 28.63 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 350 million yuan, 2.13 billion yuan, and 6.01 billion yuan respectively [3] Group 2 - The nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to reach a sales peak of 22.8 billion yuan, with a valuation of 86.5 billion yuan based on a 4x PS multiple and a 95% success rate for market approval, highlighting its potential as a key driver for the company's future performance [3] - The company maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating, reflecting confidence in the nine-valent HPV vaccine's market potential and the overall recovery of the company's financial performance [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 68.33 CNY over the next six months [3][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was under pressure, with a revenue of 401 million CNY, a year-on-year decline of 46.76%, and a net loss of 53 million CNY. This decline is attributed to the vaccine segment facing market adjustments, government procurement, and the expansion of the nine-valent HPV vaccine age group, leading to lower-than-expected sales [1]. - The nine-valent HPV vaccine is in the listing application stage, with expectations for its contribution to future revenue. The clinical trials are progressing well, and commercial production conditions are ready. The company anticipates that the launch of this vaccine will help restore its operational performance [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.17 billion CNY, 11.4 billion CNY in 2026, and 28.63 billion CNY in 2027. Net profits are expected to be 350 million CNY, 2.13 billion CNY, and 6.01 billion CNY for the same years respectively [3][10]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is forecasted to be -50.7% in 2023, -59.3% in 2024, followed by a recovery to 41.0% in 2025, 259.9% in 2026, and 151.3% in 2027 [11]. Market Potential - The nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to reach a peak sales value of 22.8 billion CNY, assuming a cumulative vaccination penetration rate of over 50% among eligible women. The estimated valuation of the company based on this product is 86.5 billion CNY, considering a 4x price-to-sales ratio and a 95% success rate for the product launch [3][10]. Stock Performance - As of April 30, 2025, the stock price was 65.41 CNY, with a 12-month price range of 63.3 to 83.8 CNY. The total market capitalization is approximately 82.75 billion CNY [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - WanTai Biologics (603392.SH) reported a significant decline in performance, with a 91.49% drop in net profit for 2024, attributed to challenges in the vaccine sector, including competition and government procurement impacts [1][2][9]. Financial Performance - For 2024, WanTai Biologics reported total revenue of 2.245 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.25% compared to 2023, and a net profit of 106 million yuan, down 91.49% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company recorded a non-recurring net profit of -186 million yuan, reflecting a change of -117.29% year-on-year [2][3]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company continued to experience a downward trend, with revenue of 401 million yuan, a decline of 4.76%, and a net loss of 52.78 million yuan, marking a 141.98% decrease year-on-year [2][3]. Vaccine Sector Challenges - The decline in performance is primarily due to the vaccine segment facing market adjustments, government procurement pressures, and competition from domestic rivals [9][20]. - The price of the company's bivalent HPV vaccine has been under pressure, with the bidding price range dropping from 329-344 yuan per bottle in 2020-2022 to 63-344 yuan in 2024 [20][21]. - The company’s vaccine sales have significantly decreased, with inventory levels showing a substantial drop in production and sales compared to previous years [24][25]. Clinical Development and Market Position - WanTai Biologics is advancing its nine-valent HPV vaccine, which is currently in Phase III clinical trials, with plans for commercialization pending regulatory approval [16][19]. - The company has developed the first domestic bivalent HPV vaccine, which has gained market access in China and 21 other countries [9][12]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with other companies like Watson Bio also entering the HPV vaccine market, further impacting WanTai's market share [20][19]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on its in vitro diagnostic business, which has shown more stability compared to the vaccine sector, and has appointed a new general manager with extensive experience in diagnostics [25].