智通财经APP获悉，周二，美国国债市场出现大规模抛售，尤其是长期债券收益率大幅攀升，给股市投资者敲响警 钟。截至收盘，30年期美国国债收益率上涨至近5.02%，为5月23日以来最高水平。 本次收益率飙升的主要推动力，来自最新通胀数据带来的预期变化。6月消费者价格指数(CPI)环比上涨0.3%，为今 年以来最大单月涨幅；同比通胀率也从上月的2.4%升至2.7%，核心CPI年率则从2.8%升至2.9%。数据显示，家具、 玩具、家电等易受关税影响的商品价格加速上涨，暗示关税对通胀的传导已开始显现。 长期国债收益率回升至5%上方，往往意味着更高的借贷成本，从房贷利率到企业债券发行利率，都将受到牵连。 市场普遍将30年期收益率视为宏观经济和财政健康的"晴雨表"。此次跳升不仅反映了债市对通胀回升的担忧，也引 发了对美联储未来加息或维持高利率时限更长的预期。 尽管联储基金期货交易者仍然押注年底前可能有两次各25个基点的降息，债券市场的调整正改变这种预期。芝加哥 Stifel Nicolaus经济学家Lauren Henderson指出："市场现在预计，美联储将不得不在更长时间内维持较高利率，2025 年降息窗口正在逐步关闭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in U.S. economic activity and unexpected macro data in May have led to increased uncertainty, as reflected in the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, which used the term "uncertainty" 80 times, impacting the bond market positively with a notable rise in bond prices [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Beige Book indicates a decline in U.S. economic activity, suggesting that tariffs and high uncertainty are causing a chain reaction in the economy [1] - ADP's report shows that private sector job growth in May was nearly stagnant, with only 37,000 jobs added, significantly below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest level in over two years [1] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have dropped to their lowest levels since May 9, with the 2-year yield down 8.25 basis points to 3.862% and the 10-year yield down 9.85 basis points to 4.355% [2] - Short-term bond ETFs have gained popularity, with significant inflows, including over $25 billion into iShares 0-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (BIL) [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Many fixed-income investors are avoiding long-term U.S. Treasuries, shifting focus to short-term bonds as a substitute, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4] - Current conditions are expected to lead to a supply-demand imbalance in the bond market, with potential upward pressure on term premiums, keeping medium to long-term Treasury yields elevated [5]