以下文章来源于华尔街见闻 ，作者见闻君 周三，10 年期美国国债收益率一度升至 4.73%，并逼近 2023 年 10 月创下的 5% 峰值，随后回落。20年期美债收益率已经率先突破5%，30年期美 债收益率达到4.96%。 华尔街见闻 . 华尔街见闻App是中国领先的金融信息和商业资讯提供商，为用户甄选国内和全球重要资讯，7*24小时全年不间断。 来源 | 华尔街见闻 全球债券市场近日持续遭遇大规模抛售，收益率快速攀升。 这一走势与2023年的情况相似，当时美国股市大幅下跌。有分析指出， 这次股市还有进一步下跌空间， 美股在未来六个月内可能面临严峻挑战。 美银认为， 如果美债收益率突破5%，投资者或将重新评估风险资产的估值，导致股市承压。 那么问题来了，美联储进入降息周期，美债收益率却大幅飙升，市场到底在定价什么？ 简单来说， 通胀焦虑促使交易员们降低了对美联储和英国央行今年降息的预期。 比如，即将卸任的美国财长耶伦就认为，拜登的抗疫支出可能"有点"推升通胀，经济比预期强劲导致市场的利率预期重新定价调整，是这轮美债抛 售的推手。她还表示， 不愿看到"债券卫士"卷土重来。 与此同时，市场正在权衡美国当选总统特 ...

Group 1 - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed robust demand, with the direct bidder allocation ratio reaching a historical high and the allocation to primary dealers at one of the lowest levels in history [1] - The awarded yield for the 20-year bonds was 4.613%, significantly lower than the previous month, marking the lowest since October 2024 [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.74, higher than in July and the second highest since March, indicating strong actual demand [1] Group 2 - The average fixed-rate mortgage loan rate for 30-year terms dropped significantly by 12 basis points to 6.13%, the lowest since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical trends suggest that in a recessionary environment, rate cuts may lower long-term yields, while in a non-recessionary environment, the impact on long-term rates may be minimal [1] - There is a possibility that the market may react by "buying the rumor, selling the fact," leading to a slight sell-off of 10-year Treasuries after the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a significant sell-off, particularly in long-term bonds, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to nearly 5.02%, the highest level since May 23 [1][3] - The surge in yields was primarily driven by recent inflation data, with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month increase this year, and the year-over-year inflation rate rising from 2.4% to 2.7% [3] - The rise in long-term Treasury yields above 5% typically indicates higher borrowing costs, affecting everything from mortgage rates to corporate bond issuance [3] Group 2 - The bond market's adjustment is altering expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policies, with market participants now anticipating that the Fed may need to maintain higher rates for a longer period [3] - On the same day, not only did the 30-year and 20-year Treasury yields surpass 5%, but the 3-month Treasury bill yield also rose to 4.345% [4] - The sell-off in the bond market led to declines in most sectors of the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones down 0.98% and the S&P 500 down 0.40%, while only large tech stocks showed relative strength with a slight increase in the Nasdaq [4]

Core Viewpoint - The importance of geopolitical news has overshadowed the light economic data schedule and the upcoming 20-year Treasury auction by the U.S. Treasury [1] Group 1 - The uncertain environment may complicate the auction of 20-year Treasury bonds compared to the well-received auctions of 10-year and 30-year bonds last week [1]

Group 1 - The focus is on the upcoming auction of $22 billion in 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds amid concerns over demand for long-term bonds due to the expanding U.S. government fiscal deficit [1] - The nonpartisan "Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget" estimates that the tax reform pushed by the Trump administration will increase U.S. government debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, potentially leading to more bond issuance [1] - The U.S. Treasury reported that the federal budget deficit expanded to $316 billion in May, bringing the cumulative deficit for the first eight months of the fiscal year to $1.36 trillion, a 14% increase from the previous year [1] Group 2 - The recent auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds was disappointing, with the highest bid rate reaching 5.047%, marking the largest tail spread in six months, and the bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46 [2] - The poor performance of the 20-year bond auction led to a sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries, with the 30-year bond yield rising to 5.15%, close to a 20-year high, impacting U.S. stocks and the dollar [2] Group 3 - U.S. inflation in May was lower than expected, boosting demand for short-term Treasuries as traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4] - A strong auction of 10-year U.S. Treasuries, with a winning yield of 4.421%, indicated investor willingness to accept lower returns for these bonds [4] Group 4 - Despite lower inflation, it remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and policymakers are cautious about further rate cuts due to potential inflationary impacts from tariffs [5] - Bond management firms like DoubleLine Capital and PIMCO prefer holding Treasuries with maturities under 10 years and are reducing allocations to long-term bonds, viewing them as no longer a true risk-free asset [5] - Some analysts, however, see potential in 30-year Treasuries, suggesting they may rebound if auction demand is strong or deficit concerns ease [5]

Core Viewpoint - Global investor aversion to long-term government bonds is turning the upcoming U.S. Treasury auction into a highly anticipated event on Wall Street, particularly focusing on the sale of $22 billion in 30-year bonds, which will serve as a gauge for market appetite amid declining demand for such securities [1][2] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Auction Details - The upcoming auction results will be closely monitored as they will reflect market sentiment, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds currently viewed as undesirable by investors [1][2] - Key metrics such as the auction "tail" (the difference between final yield and pre-issue trading levels) and the bid-to-cover ratio will provide insights into market demand [2] - The participation of foreign investors will also be a focal point, as poor auction results could indicate deeper issues in market confidence [2] Group 2: Yield Trends and Economic Implications - Long-term bond yields have recently surged due to rising concerns over debt spirals and worsening fiscal deficits, with the 30-year yield reaching a near 20-year high of 5.15% before settling at 4.94% [1][3] - The increase in yields signifies heightened financing pressures as the U.S. government continues to expand its borrowing amid uncontrolled spending [1][4] - The yield curve is steepening, with the 10-year term premium indicator rising to nearly 0.75 percentage points, reflecting increased compensation demanded by investors for long-term borrowing [4] Group 3: Political and Economic Factors - Long-term yields are increasingly influenced by political factors rather than monetary policy, leading to a disconnect from fundamental economic indicators [3][4] - The potential for a tax on foreign investors, as proposed in the Trump administration's tax reform, raises concerns about foreign investment in U.S. Treasuries, despite clarifications that it would not apply to bond investments [4] - Upcoming economic data releases, including inflation metrics, are expected to further impact the yield curve, with a likely outcome of continued steepening [4]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the expanding deficit threatening the U.S. safe-haven status are reflected in the weak demand for a $16 billion 20-year Treasury auction, leading to declines in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [3][4]. Group 1: Treasury Auction Results - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year bonds with a winning yield of 5.047%, marking the second instance of yields surpassing 5% since the bond's introduction five years ago [3]. - The winning yield was 24 basis points higher than April's 4.810% and approximately 1.2 basis points above the pre-issue rate of 5.035%, indicating a significant tail risk [3]. - This auction is considered one of the worst performances for this maturity since its launch, reflecting deteriorating investor sentiment towards U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The weak auction results exacerbated a multi-week sell-off in Treasuries, highlighting growing investor dissatisfaction with increasing U.S. debt levels [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.5%, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.607%, the highest since February 13 [3]. - Analysts noted that the market's reaction to the auction signals a collective avoidance of U.S. debt by foreign buyers, with rising financing costs putting pressure on the stock market [4]. Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - The White House intensified pressure on Republicans to approve Trump's tax plan, which could add trillions to the already ballooning budget deficit [6]. - Concerns were raised that the current administration is unlikely to make meaningful cuts to the deficit, as highlighted by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin [6]. - The bond market is seen as a barometer for fiscal sustainability, with rising yields indicating that investors are increasingly wary of the government's fiscal policies [7]. Group 4: Debt and Deficit Statistics - The U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 100%, with interest payments projected to reach about $880 billion in 2024, exceeding defense spending [8]. - The amount of outstanding debt surged from under $14 trillion at the end of 2016 to nearly $30 trillion [8]. - The annual sales of U.S. government debt reached a record $2.6 trillion last year, indicating a significant increase in borrowing [8].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are resisting President Trump's tax cut plan, leading to a rise in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5.1%, close to a 20-year high, which has negatively impacted U.S. stock markets and the dollar [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, nearing the peak levels of 2023 [2] - There has been a significant sell-off in the bond market, reflecting investor disappointment with the U.S. government's increasing debt [4] - Demand for the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction was unexpectedly low, indicating further deterioration in investor confidence [1][4] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - The tax plan is expected to add trillions to an already inflated budget deficit, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1][6] - The U.S. public debt is approximately 100% of the economy, with interest payments projected to reach $880 billion in 2024, exceeding defense spending [6] - The total outstanding U.S. debt has surged from under $14 trillion in 2016 to nearly $30 trillion, driven by tax cuts and pandemic-related borrowing [6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The bond market is signaling policymakers to address fiscal sustainability issues, which are now affecting risk sentiment in equity and credit markets [4] - The phenomenon of "bond vigilantes" is re-emerging, where investors sell government bonds to pressure the government into reducing spending [4][5] - Investors are currently demanding higher returns for long-term bonds, not just in the U.S. but also in Japan and the UK [4]

Core Viewpoint - The results of the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction have influenced market movements, with gold prices maintaining a 0.7% increase and the U.S. dollar showing a decline against the yen and Swiss franc [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Spot gold prices stabilized around $3,315, reflecting a 0.7% increase following the auction results [1] - The U.S. dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate experienced a decline of approximately 0.7%, reaching 143.57 yen, with a low of 143.29 yen recorded [1] - The U.S. dollar to Swiss franc exchange rate saw a reduced decline of 0.48%, trading at 0.8242, with a previous low of 0.8230 and a day low of 0.8210 [1]