Doshi说，他预计投资需求在年底前将保持稳定；然而，他补充说，与9月份的速度相比，需求应该会放缓。他解释说，黄金之所以出现非凡的涨势，是因为 投资者正寻求对冲和保护自己，以应对非同寻常的市场状况。 黄金空前的涨势在9月份再上一个新台阶，创下了这种贵金属40多年来的最大季度涨幅。尽管短期内势头可能会放缓，但一位市场分析师认为，金价仍有进 一步上涨的空间。 道富投资管理公司的黄金策略主管Aakash Doshi表示，随着投资需求已成为支撑价格在历史高位的重要因素，金价升至每盎司4000美元只是时间问题。 这一看涨前景发表之际，黄金价格周四交投于3870美元附近。 在过去三个月里，黄金上涨了近17%，这是自1982年第二季度以来的最佳季度表现。黄金年初至今也已上涨47%，是自1979年以来的最强劲涨幅。 9月份是黄金投资需求前所未有的一个月，全球最大的黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）出现了创纪录的资金流入。全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR黄金信托基金 （GLD）在9月份增持了35.2吨黄金，其中9月19日的单日流入量达18.9吨，创下有记录以来的最大增幅。 Doshi指出，即便有如此水平的需求，黄金ETF的持有量仍远 ...

花旗集团的策略师们退出了一个押注长期美国国债将在对美联储的攻击加剧时，表现逊于短期国债的交 易建议，他们表示，上周一项近乎一致的政策决定，"在边际上"减少了对央行独立性的担忧。 包括Dirk Willer和Adam Pickett在内的策略师，建议客户在该交易触及移动止损后，对押注30年期利率远 期合约将落后于5年期合约的头寸进行获利了结。 他们在5月份于两者差值为40个基点的水平上发起了该交易，并在8月份于72个基点的水平上增持了该头 寸，最终在60个基点的水平上退出。 美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼二人在7月份都曾提出鸽派异议，这次则与同事们站在了一边。 "自我们5月份发起交易以来，对长期国债的供应担忧似乎已变得更为温和，"花旗的策略师写道。他们 说，本月的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议"在边际上减少了对美联储独立性的担忧"。 此外，策略师们补充说，过去在软着陆情景下的美联储宽松周期"都相当浅"，这限制了"牛市陡峭化"的 潜力。"因此，我们暂时离场观望。" 花旗四个月前的最初建议，是基于对美国总统特朗普标志性的税收和支出法案将使政府债务膨胀，从而 对较长期债务构成压力的预期。他们在8月下旬增持了该赌注，当时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year yield, and the implications of this trend for future interest rates and economic conditions [1][2][4][7]. Group 1: Yield Curve Dynamics - As of August 28, the 2-year Treasury yield fell to 3.59%, the lowest since September 2024, indicating a significant downward adjustment in the yield curve, particularly in the short-term segment [1]. - The yield curve has shifted from an inverted state to a normal upward slope, with the 2-year to 10-year spread moving from negative to positive, reflecting market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][6]. - The phenomenon of "bull steepening" is observed, where short-term yields decline faster than long-term yields, suggesting a market shift in risk-return preferences following the Fed's signaling of rate cuts [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Labor market indicators show a slowdown in job growth, with the Beveridge curve indicating structural weaknesses, which aligns with the Fed's acknowledgment of labor market risks being greater than inflation risks [5][7]. - The current economic environment, characterized by high federal debt exceeding $37 trillion, is not leading to a crisis in the Treasury market but rather increasing demand for safe assets [3][7]. - Historical data suggests that high debt levels are often associated with low interest rate cycles, as investors seek liquidity and safety during economic downturns [3][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Demand - Recent Treasury auctions have shown strong demand, with the 2-year and 5-year auctions reflecting robust interest despite a slight decline in bid coverage ratios, indicating a preference for safety among investors [3][6]. - The stability of foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries suggests that global capital inflows remain strong, maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve asset despite the heavy debt burden [7]. - The article emphasizes the need for economists and market participants to focus on actual market signals rather than outdated models, as the current yield curve dynamics are a response to real economic conditions rather than purely Fed-driven [6][7].