Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stainless - steel futures rose today, driven by steel mills' price hikes and related variety disk trends. However, due to weak downstream demand in the off - season, the market is in a wait - and - see state with light trading. Technically, there is a callback pressure after the price breaks through the 50 - day moving average and the RSI indicator moves from the oversold area to the middle range. In the short term, stainless - steel futures may maintain a volatile trend [10]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On August 5, 2025, the price of the stainless - steel ss2509 contract fluctuated upward. It opened near the daily low of 12985 points, then dropped to the daily low of 12920 points, and oscillated within this range throughout the day. The price rose at the end of the session and then fell back to the closing price of 12960 points. Trading volume was high at the opening and before the close, with a daily trading volume of 79826 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 stainless - steel futures contracts show a normal market pattern of lower near - term prices and higher far - term prices. Contracts at both ends of the months saw relatively large price increases, while those in the middle months had weak increases. The active contract ss2509 had a position of 85949 lots, a decrease of 1526 lots. Funds entered the stainless - steel variety on that day, and the position of the secondary - leading contract increased by 2863 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basic Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract ss2509 changed significantly, with a maximum of 470 yuan/ton, a minimum of 25 yuan/ton, and 140 yuan/ton on the day. In the spot market, taking the 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil plate with rough edges as an example, the prices in Foshan Yongjin, Wuxi Yongjin, Zibo Hongwang, and Shanghai Hongwang were 12750 yuan/ton, 12800 yuan/ton, 12700 yuan/ton, and 12800 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of stainless - steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 102865 tons, a decrease of 60 tons compared with the previous trading day. The recent change in registered warehouse receipts was small, and the overall warehouse receipt quantity remained at a historical high [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In terms of cost, the price of Indonesian nickel ore remained stable, and the premium of pyrometallurgical nickel ore was maintained at 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton. The nickel - iron quotation range moved up slightly, mainly concentrated at 920 - 930 yuan/nickel point. High - cost nickel - iron production lines were mostly in a state of reduction or shutdown. In terms of supply, since July, the stainless - steel price has rebounded, and the steel mills' profits have been significantly repaired. However, the production reduction of steel mills in July was less than expected, and the production schedule in August increased further, so there is still supply pressure. According to Steel Union data, the production schedule of the 300 - series in August is 1.7598 million tons, a 3% month - on - month increase. In terms of inventory, the social inventories in Wuxi and Foshan of stainless - steel have been gradually reduced recently, mainly due to the slowdown of market arrivals and the steel mills' price hikes stimulating purchasing demand. But the terminal demand has not improved significantly, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, and the tariff policy has uncertainties for exports [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook The stainless - steel futures rose today, affected by steel mills' price hikes and related variety disk trends. Due to weak downstream demand in the off - season, the wait - and - see sentiment is strong and trading is light. Technically, there is a callback pressure after the price breaks through the 50 - day moving average and the RSI indicator moves from the oversold area to the middle range. In the short term, stainless - steel futures may maintain a volatile trend [10].

Report Information - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily Report [1] - Analyst: Dai Xiaohong, with Futures Practitioner Certificate No. F0266663 and Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0000213 [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On July 24, 2025, the stainless steel ss2509 futures contract fluctuated sideways with large intraday volatility, rising after an early - morning decline, closing up about 0.27% at 12,935 points. The overnight position decreased continuously and then increased with the price rise before the close. The daily trading volume was 144,000 lots, a decrease of 81,700 lots from the previous trading day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of 12 stainless - steel futures contracts showed a normal market pattern of lower near - term and higher far - term prices. All contracts were strong throughout the day, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. The active contract ss2509 had a position of 120,000 lots, a decrease of 2,051 lots (1.71% decrease). The main - contract funds left the market, while the position of the secondary main contract increased by 3,095 lots [5] 1.3 Related Quotes - On the same day, Shanghai nickel prices mostly rose, and nickel ore prices were firm. Some ferronickel production capacity shifted to nickel ice again, and it was expected that the supply of ferronickel and the amount flowing back to China would shrink. The domestic ferronickel price rebounded to around 908 yuan per nickel point [7] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active stainless - steel contract ss2509 changed significantly, with a maximum of 280 yuan/ton, a minimum of 25 yuan/ton, and 95 yuan/ton on the day, widening by 35 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, taking 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil plate with rough edges as an example, the prices in Foshan Yongjin, Wuxi Yongjin, Zibo Hongwang, and Shanghai Hongwang were 12,700 yuan/ton, 12,600 yuan/ton, 12,550 yuan/ton, and 12,700 yuan/ton respectively [11] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 103,354 tons, a decrease of 61 tons. Although the registered warehouse receipts of stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been decreasing recently, they are still at a historical high [11] 3. Influencing Factors - According to Mysteel statistics, on July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country was 1,118,586 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.54%. For the 300 - series stainless steel, the total inventory was 669,941 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.55%. The market arrivals were normal this week. With the increase in spot prices following the mill's list prices, the resource digestion speed accelerated slightly, and the shipments were mainly for on - demand procurement and the delivery of some previous processing orders. Therefore, the national stainless - steel social inventory decreased this period [12] 4. Market Outlook - The strong sideways fluctuation on the previous day, combined with the gradual increase over several trading days, may accumulate bullish energy in market sentiment and risk preference. Before new spot data is released, the moving - average system may support traders' bullish sentiment and push prices higher, but the variability of sentiment should be noted [14]