1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on caustic soda investment [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the conflict between the United States and Iran, there is an expectation of significant production cuts in the future, leading to a bullish outlook on caustic soda [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance has decreased, and production has increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production has increased by 0.3 tons to 85 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises is 85.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1%. The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded, and coastal chlor - alkali plants are expected to cut production due to raw material issues [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production has declined, and non - aluminum demand is weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 90.14%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang is 50.83%, an increase of 7.50% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 13.34%. In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda exports were 309,638.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3,429,614.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6% [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 534,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.15%. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 30.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The inventory in the central China sample warehouse has increased by 21.74%, while that in the eastern China sample warehouse has decreased by 12.78% [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 666, and the futures price is at a significant premium [3] - **Profit**: During the week, raw material and auxiliary material costs decreased, energy costs increased slightly, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased significantly, and the overall chlor - alkali profit increased. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been adjusted to 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is neutral, and the main contract is at a significant premium [3] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded, causing a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC, and some chlor - alkali plants are facing shutdown [3] - **Investment View**: Bullish, as the conflict between the United States and Iran is expected to lead to significant production cuts in the future [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended for now [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - This week, the spot price in Shandong has slightly increased, while the futures price has increased significantly. On the supply side, liquid chlorine prices have rebounded, the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is in the red, there is less maintenance, and enterprises have less load reduction, resulting in relatively high overall supply. On the demand side, downstream customers resist high prices and make purchases based on rigid demand. Traders have a weak enthusiasm for stockpiling, but export transactions are good. The inventory accumulation in Shandong is better than expected, the inventory pressure is small, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. However, the conflict between the United States and Iran has led to a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC plants, and some plants are planning to shut down or reduce their loads. As a co - product, caustic soda is also facing shutdown or load reduction, which is expected to lead to a shortage of caustic soda supply in the future [6] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal prices have stabilized, and electricity prices are fluctuating within a range [33] - **Upstream Production**: The production capacity utilization rate remains at a high level, and inventory is being depleted [36] - **Production in Main Production Areas**: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased [39] - **Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [40] - **Downstream Prices**: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [43] - **Alumina**: The supply - demand balance of alumina has been restored, and inventory has increased. Port bauxite inventory has increased. Alumina profit is poor, but there has been no significant production cut. The supply is in surplus, and the bauxite inventory of factories has increased significantly [55][61] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the startup rate is at a low level. The printing and dyeing market is weak, and the short - term market recovery is乏力 [62][63] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The startup rate has rebounded [71]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to increased competition and weak downstream demand in the CPE product market [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The company's main CPE product sales reached 40,483 tons, an increase of 3,822 tons year-on-year [1] - The caustic soda sales were 183,804 tons, a slight decrease of 7,621 tons year-on-year [1] - The hydrogen peroxide production and sales decreased to 32,088 tons, down 11,510 tons year-on-year due to balancing effects from the caustic soda by-product [1] Group 2: Financial Results - The company achieved an operating income of 428 million yuan, a decrease of 1.3 million yuan or 2.89% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was -95.94 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 3: Production Capacity - The production capacity for the CPE product has been increased to 80,000 tons per year [1]

证券代码：600319 证券简称：亚星化学 编号：临2025-043 潍坊亚星化学股份有限公司 关于 2025 年半年度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3号行业信 息披露：第十三号——化工》的要求，潍坊亚星化学股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"）现将2025年半年度主要经营数据披露如下： | 主要产品 | | 2024年第二季 | | | | 2025年第一季 | | | 2025年第二季 | | | 同 | 比 | 变 | 环 | 比 | 变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 度 单 | 平 | 均 | 价 | 度 平 均 | 单 | 价 | 度 平 均 价 | | 单 | | 动比率 | | | 动比率 | | | | | （元/吨） | ...