International News - Iraq's Prime Minister has ordered the cessation of imports of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene as domestic production meets national consumption needs [1] Domestic News - The Anhui Provincial Ecological Environment Department has announced a special inspection of industrial enterprises' air pollution prevention facilities in 13 cities, focusing on issues such as non-compliance with construction permits and illegal emissions [2] Oil Prices (as of November 6) - 92 gasoline prices range from 7205 to 7561 CNY per ton across various regions, with the highest price in Southwest China [2] - Diesel prices range from 6409 to 6657 CNY per ton, with the lowest price in Northeast China [2] Chemical Prices (as of November 6) - Polypropylene prices range from 6330 to 7550 CNY per ton, varying by region [3] - Polyethylene prices range from 6850 to 10100 CNY per ton, with significant regional differences [3] Alkali Prices (as of November 6) - Liquid caustic soda prices range from 800 to 1280 CNY per ton, depending on concentration and region [4] Alcohol Prices (as of November 6) - Methanol prices range from 1630 to 2450 CNY per ton across different markets [5] Hydrogen Peroxide Prices (as of November 6) - Hydrogen peroxide prices range from 730 to 1790 CNY per ton, depending on concentration and region [5] Chemical Bulk Prices (as of November 6) - Prices for various chemicals such as phosphoric acid, potassium nitrate, and urea show slight fluctuations, with phosphoric acid priced at 3363 to 3447 CNY per ton [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. The supply will increase as maintenance work is completed and new production capacities come online, while the demand is moderate, and the export situation is weakening. The high inventory and futures warehouse receipts also put pressure on the price [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply is increasing as new maintenance and capacity increase co - exist. The demand from the alumina sector is stable but affected by environmental control, and non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. However, the potential new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,638 yuan/ton (-32), with an East China basis of -58 yuan/ton (+12) and a South China basis of -8 yuan/ton (+2) [1]. - Spot price: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,580 yuan/ton (-20), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,630 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 740 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -763 yuan/ton (-40), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -545 yuan/ton (+16), and the PVC export profit is 1.6 US dollars/ton (+1.1) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: PVC factory inventory is 33.8 tons (+0.4), social inventory is 54.5 tons (-1.0), the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 76.47% (+4.82%), the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.50% (-0.06%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.09% (+3.35%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.4 tons (+13.9) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,303 yuan/ton (-33), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 197 yuan/ton (+33) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 806.6 yuan/ton (+80.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 103.78 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 979.23 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.26 tons (+2.83), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.73 tons (+0.28), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.30% (+3.50%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 85.86% (-0.41%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 68.06% (+0.75%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.66% (+1.05%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply: Maintenance work has been completed this week, and new production capacities are gradually reaching full production. The supply is expected to be abundant [3]. - Demand: The downstream operation rate has increased, but the purchasing sentiment is average. Exports are relying on price cuts, and the export orders are weakening [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute inventory level is high. The high - level futures warehouse receipts also put pressure on the price [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply: New maintenance and capacity increase co - exist, and the operation rate is rising. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Orders from alumina in Shandong are stable, but the operation rate of alumina in Hebei has decreased slightly due to environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased slightly [3]. Strategy - **PVC** - Single - side trading: Fluctuate in a wide range. Consider positive arbitrage between futures and spot [4]. - Inter - period trading: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy [4]. - **Caustic Soda** - Single - side trading: Fluctuate within a range [5]. - Inter - period trading: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy [5].

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-05 华东下游11月液碱采购价下调 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4670元/吨（-10）；华东基差-70元/吨（+10）;华南基差-10元/吨（-10）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4600元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4660元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格740元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-763元/吨（-40）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-545元/吨（+16）；PVC出口利润0.5美元/吨（+4.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.8万吨（+0.4）；PVC社会库存54.5万吨（-1.0）；PVC电石法开工率76.47%（+4.82%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.50%（-0.06%）；PVC开工率77.09%（+3.35%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量77.4万吨（+13.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2336元/吨（-14）；山东32%液碱基差164元/吨（+14）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market are in a weak balance, and the price trend is stable. The supply side sees some plants resuming operation after maintenance and some enterprises reducing their loads, with overall stable supply. The demand side shows a slight increase in delivery volume to major downstream industries. The stable profit from liquid chlorine reduces enterprises' willingness to adjust prices. Future market trends depend on delivery to major downstream industries and changes in liquid chlorine prices [4]. - The caustic soda market is expected to have a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The Shandong liquid caustic soda market is in a weak balance, with stable supply and a slight increase in demand. Liquid chlorine provides profit support, and future trends depend on downstream delivery and liquid chlorine prices [4]. - **Strategy**: The caustic soda market is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options trading [5]. Core Logic Analysis - **Shandong Alumina Market**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large - scale alumina plants in Shandong is decreasing, and the price has been adjusted downwards several times. As of October 17, the price is stable at 740 yuan/ton, and the current delivery volume is 8720 tons, showing a significant decline [7][9]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 414,300 tons (wet tons), a 2.73% increase from the previous week and a 37.78% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate is 23.80%, a 0.71% increase from the previous week. Most regions' inventory ratios are rising [13]. - **Alumina Market**: Most alumina enterprises are operating normally, with no clear maintenance plans except for a roasting furnace rotation plan in a large - scale alumina group in Chongqing. The operating capacity is 9.765 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate is 85.2%. The inventory of alumina in aluminum plants is rising, and the market is under pressure with a downward trend [17]. - **Caustic Soda Production**: The average capacity utilization rate of 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises in China from October 10 - 16, 2025, is 81.4%, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week. The load has decreased in multiple regions [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Caustic Soda Futures and Spot Prices**: Includes price trends of caustic soda futures contracts, 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, as well as price differences between different varieties and regions [23][25][27]. - **Caustic Soda Profit**: Shows the profit trends of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu, as well as the prices of liquid chlorine [40]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory**: Covers factory and market inventories of liquid and flake caustic soda, as well as provincial - level inventory data [42][46]. - **Caustic Soda Production**: Involves production volume and capacity utilization rate of caustic soda, provincial - level production data, and new production capacity plans [49][51][53]. - **Caustic Soda Device Maintenance**: Lists the maintenance situations of caustic soda devices in different regions and enterprises [55]. - **Caustic Soda Consumption**: Presents the demand and weekly consumption of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda [57][58]. - **Alumina Market**: Covers the production capacity, output, and new production capacity plans of alumina, as well as the impact on caustic soda demand [16][61][65]. - **Related Industries**: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry has increased. The printing and dyeing industry has stable operation but a lackluster "Golden September" [67][71]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: Includes export volume, price, profit, and export destinations of caustic soda, as well as overseas alumina production capacity plans [73][77][82].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic liquid caustic soda market has mixed transaction adjustments today. Prices in many regions remain stable. The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Hebei are rising steadily, while those in Henan, Anhui, and Chongqing are falling steadily. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 - 890 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of a large local alumina factory is 740 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 1280 - 1380 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day's average price. Traders are advised to continue to wait and see as the long - short game is intense. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - **Raw Salt**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest regions are 200 yuan, 260 yuan, and 200 yuan respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Calcium Carbide**: The prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia are 2830 yuan and 2425 yuan respectively, remaining unchanged [1] - **Liquid Chlorine**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest C are 50 yuan, 81 yuan, and - 50 yuan respectively. The price in Northwest C increased by 50 yuan [1] - **32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions remain unchanged. The mainstream transaction price in Shandong is 780 - 890 yuan/ton [1] - **50% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions remain unchanged. The mainstream transaction price in Shandong is 1280 - 1380 yuan/ton [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes**: The prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and other regions remain unchanged [1] - **PVC**: The prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia are 4520 yuan and 4380 yuan respectively, remaining unchanged [1] Futures and Related Spreads - **Futures Main Contract**: The closing price is 2453 yuan, up 15 yuan [1] - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong decreased by 15 yuan to 141 yuan, and in Jiangsu decreased by 15 yuan to 516 yuan [1] - **50% Alkali - 32% Alkali Spread**: The spread in Shandong remains unchanged at - 14 yuan [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes - 50% Alkali Spread**: The spread in Guangdong remains unchanged at 630 yuan [1] - **50% Alkali Regional Spread**: The spread between the East and Shandong remains unchanged at 320 yuan [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes Regional Spread**: The spreads between Southwest - Inner Mongolia and Southwest - Shandong remain unchanged at 650 yuan and 400 yuan respectively [1] Profit and Electricity Price - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: The profit in Shandong increased by 49 yuan to 90 yuan, and in the Northwest remains unchanged at 483 yuan [1] - **Electricity Price**: The electricity prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia are 0.75 yuan and 0.5 yuan respectively, remaining unchanged [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the caustic soda futures showed a significant downward trend, with short - sellers actively increasing positions to push down the futures price, and there were stop - loss phenomena among long - sellers. The main reasons include weak spot prices, the non - decline of liquid chlorine prices contrary to expectations, and the continuous decline of alumina spot and futures prices. In the later stage, the caustic soda futures may be supported by the liquid chlorine price, especially during the National Day holiday. Therefore, the caustic soda futures should be treated with a volatile mindset [5]. Summary by Directory 01 Overview - **Supply**: In the period from September 19 - 25, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a 0.6% week - on - week increase. Northwest had new device production cuts and maintenance, while North China and East China had increased loads after device maintenance. Next week, except for the Southwest region, other six regions are expected to increase their loads, with an estimated capacity utilization rate of about 85.9% and a weekly output of about 845,700 tons [5]. - **Demand - Alumina**: China's alumina production was 1.855 million tons, a decline from last week's 1.861 million tons. Shandong's alumina production remained flat at 626,000 tons. The liquid caustic soda purchase price of large - scale alumina factories in Shandong dropped to 740 yuan/ton, with a 100% converted price of 2,313 yuan/ton. Alumina prices and production profits declined recently [5]. - **Demand - Viscose Staple Fiber**: China's viscose staple fiber production was 90,000 tons, a 30 - ton increase from last week. As of September 25, 2025, the total daily output of 20 domestic viscose staple fiber enterprises was around 12,960 tons. The physical inventory of domestic viscose staple fiber factories was 128,200 tons, a 50 - ton decrease from the previous period and a 32,000 - ton increase compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 33.26%. The downstream demand for viscose staple fiber was weak [5]. - **Demand - Printing and Dyeing**: As of September 25, 2025, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.15%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang was 66.25%, remaining flat compared to the previous data and a 1.25% increase year - on - year. The overall startup rate of dyeing factories in Zhejiang remained stable, with orders featuring "short, frequent, and fast" characteristics. Most dyeing factories planned to have a 2 - 3 - day holiday during the National Day [5]. - **Export**: In August, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 213,500 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 66,800 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 391,200 tons (wet tons), a 3.4% week - on - week increase and a 26.26% year - on - year increase. The storage capacity ratio of domestic liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 20.78%, a 0.64% week - on - week increase [5]. - **Profit**: This Friday, the average price of Shandong liquid caustic soda was 2,500 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was - 100 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 306 yuan/ton, at a historically low level. The decline in liquid caustic soda prices compressed the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [5]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a volatile mindset for single - side trading; no strategy for arbitrage and options [5]. 02 Price - The report presents price trends of Shandong chlor - alkali spot, flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, caustic soda futures, basis, inter - month spreads, raw salt, and coal, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [7][10][13][16] 03 Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply**: Data on China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda device loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [20][21] - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit**: Information on the liquid caustic soda inventory of Chinese sample enterprises, caustic soda futures warehouse receipts, and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profits is presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [23][24] - **Chlor - Alkali Device Maintenance Plan**: This week, many chlor - alkali devices have resumed operation after maintenance, and there are also some devices under maintenance. In the future, multiple enterprises have maintenance plans, including specific time and capacity information [26] 04 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: Data on China's alumina production, Shandong's alumina production, alumina profit, Shandong alumina enterprises' liquid caustic soda purchase price, and alumina inventory are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [29][30][31][32] - **Textile Industry**: Information on viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, market price, factory inventory, inventory available days of viscose staple fiber in Chinese rayon yarn enterprises, textile enterprise weekly startup rate, order days, in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang region printing and dyeing factory startup rate is presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [34][35][37][38] - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: Data on pulp production, paper product production, and the inventory available days of paper products in upstream factories are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [39][40] - **Export**: Data on China's monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, cumulative export volume of caustic soda, and monthly export volume of caustic soda are presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [41][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. The烧碱 market sees a decline in 32% alkali prices and stable 50% alkali prices. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues, and non - aluminum demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and new alumina production [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16), with an East China basis of - 205 yuan/ton (-6) and a South China basis of - 105 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - **Spot Prices**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+10), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was 5.2 dollars/ton (+0.1) [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.11% (+0.68%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1] 烧碱 - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2537 yuan/ton (-11), and the Shandong 32% liquid alkali basis was - 37 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid alkali was quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong 50% liquid alkali was quoted at 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of Shandong caustic soda was 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Liquid alkali factory inventory was 39.12 tons (+1.29), flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.08 tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+0.60%) [2] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The alumina operating rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the East China printing and dyeing operating rate was 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 89.82% (+0.30%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. Attention should be paid to pre - National Day replenishment sentiment and macro - environment impacts [3] 烧碱 - The 32% alkali price has been continuously decreasing, while the 50% alkali price has stabilized. Production may increase slightly as some maintenance enterprises resume operations. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues. The 50% alkali inventory reduction drives the Shandong caustic soda inventory decline, but the national liquid alkali inventory has increased. Attention should be paid to the 32% alkali sales situation, non - aluminum demand resilience, new alumina production, and downstream replenishment [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side Trading**: Fluctuate widely with the macro - environment [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Wait and see [4] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [4] 烧碱 - **Single - side Trading**: Wait and see [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [5]

Group 1: Main Points and Strategy Overview - The latest futures price of caustic soda is 2580 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.78%; the price of Shandong 32% caustic soda is 2406.25 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 15.38%; the price of Shandong 50% caustic soda is 1250 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 7.41% [5]. - China's caustic soda production is 820,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%; North China's production is 270,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.11%; Northwest China's production is 220,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.44% [5]. - China's caustic soda operating rate is 81.9%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.8%; Shandong's operating rate is 0.89, with a week-on-week increase of 2.01% [5]. - The inventory of liquid caustic soda is 378,300 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.03%; the inventory of flake caustic soda is 22,100 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.27%; Shandong's inventory is 29,500 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 17.6% [5]. - The alumina operating rate is 86.23%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2%; Shandong's alumina operating rate is 88.39%, with no change from the previous week; the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.52%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.99%; the chemical pulp operating rate is 86.4%, with a week-on-week increase of 6.27%; the printing and dyeing operating rate is 65.76%, with no change from the previous week [5]. - Shandong's chlor-alkali profit is 240.09 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 35.17%; Northwest China's chlor-alkali profit is 525.05 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.79% [5]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents the historical trends of caustic soda futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other indicators through multiple charts [8][11][13][16][19][20][24][27][28][29][30]. Group 3: Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - The report shows the historical trends of caustic soda capacity utilization, device loss, inventory, and other indicators through multiple charts [33][36][38][40][56][58][60][62][64][66][67][68][69][70][73]. - Supply-side positives: Formosa Plastics will conduct large-scale maintenance from the 16th to the 23rd, which will have a short-term driving effect on the surrounding area; Minxiang and Dadi have fully loaded their 50% caustic soda production; Guangxi alumina plants will start to stockpile caustic soda in October [75][76]. - Supply-side negatives: The FOB export transaction price of caustic soda in East China is between 390 - 410, and the transaction price of liquid caustic soda in Northeast Asia is between 410 - 420; Haili has fully loaded its production capacity; Binzhou's maintenance has been postponed; Weiqiao has vehicle queuing; Tianjin Bohua's device will be fully loaded in the second half of the month, and attention should be paid to Wenfeng's procurement [75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a certain range. The high - price caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - According to Steel Union data, the weekly output of caustic soda this week is 818,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.9% (a decrease of 1.5 percentage points). According to Baichuan data, the output of liquid caustic soda is 824,200 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to last week, and the output of flake caustic soda is 104,600 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons compared to last week. There are more maintenance activities this week [3]. Inventory - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the total inventory of liquid caustic soda factories nationwide is 243,000 tons (in terms of 100% purity), a 0.4% increase compared to last week. According to Longzhong data, the in - factory inventory of liquid caustic soda (samples of fixed liquid caustic soda with 200,000 tons and above) is 378,300 wet tons, a 6.02% increase compared to last week [3]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is 328 yuan/ton, a 1.8% decrease compared to last week. This week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remains stable, the price of caustic soda weakens, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increases, and the overall profit of chlor - alkali enterprises decreases slightly [3]. Demand - **Alumina**: Recently, the continuous decline in the prices of domestic and overseas alumina has continuously narrowed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises. Except for regular maintenance, insufficient supply of domestic ores, and the impact of heavy rain, there are no signs of large - scale production cuts among domestic enterprises. Coupled with the continuous import of overseas supplies in the later period, the support for spot prices from the supply side is weak in the short term [3]. - **Viscose staple fiber**: The market price of viscose staple fiber has remained stable this week [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a range. The high - price liquid caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [5]. Caustic Soda Futures Market - **Futures prices**: On September 19, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts are 2,723 yuan/ton, 2,734 yuan/ton, and 2,641 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 2.06%, 1.64%, and 2.36% respectively [5]. - **Monthly spreads**: The monthly spreads of (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) are - 11, 93, and - 82 respectively, with daily changes of 11, - 17, and 6 respectively [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of 05, 09, and 01 contracts (Shandong Jinling) are - 317, - 328, and - 235 respectively, with daily changes of - 55, - 44, and - 61 respectively [5]. Spot Prices - **32% caustic soda**: The prices of most brands in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 2.2% [7]. - **50% caustic soda**: The prices of most brands remain unchanged, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 1.5% [8]. - **Flake caustic soda**: The market prices in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025 [8]. Price Spreads - Most of the caustic soda brand/regional price spreads remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for the 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong), which increased by 50 yuan/ton [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - PVC: The PVC market fluctuates mainly with macro - sentiment. The supply is abundant as domestic PVC device overhauls decrease and new production devices increase. Downstream demand remains weak, with low - level开工 of downstream products and mainly rigid - demand procurement. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak due to Indian policies. Social inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price from hedging [3]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply from chlor - alkali enterprises is at a relatively high level. The main downstream in Shandong, alumina factories, has stable purchase prices and increasing delivery volumes. Non - aluminum downstream industries have increased开工, with rigid - demand procurement. Cost support remains, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary according to Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4888 yuan/ton (+31), the East China basis is - 218 yuan/ton (- 11), and the South China basis is - 128 yuan/ton (- 31) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4760 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 14 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 421 yuan/ton (- 22), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 671 yuan/ton (- 43), and the PVC export profit is 9.7 dollars/ton (- 5.0) [1]. - Inventory and开工: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.6 tons (+0.4), the social inventory is 53.3 tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 80.29% (+2.64%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 77.20% (+4.61%), and the overall PVC开工 rate is 79.39% (+3.21%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.1 tons (- 2.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2590 yuan/ton (+14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 129 yuan/ton (- 14) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 824.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 532.53 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 35.68 tons (- 3.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 83.40% (- 0.80%) [2]. - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 84.38% (- 1.20%), the dyeing开工 rate in East China is 65.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 87.77% (+0.67%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: The number of domestic PVC device overhauls continues to decrease, and new production devices are increasing, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream product开工 remains low, with enterprises purchasing only for rigid - demand. The raw material restocking willingness during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season needs attention. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak due to Indian policies [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of PVC continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high. The futures warehouse receipts are increasing, and there is pressure on the futures price from hedging [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The开工 rate of chlor - alkali enterprises is slightly increasing and at a high level in the same period [3]. - Demand: The main downstream in Shandong, alumina factories, has stable purchase prices and increasing delivery volumes. Non - aluminum downstream industries have increased开工, with rigid - demand procurement. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3]. - Cost and profit: The electricity price in Shandong has a slight increase in September, and there is some resistance from downstream after the reduction of liquid chlorine subsidies. It is expected that liquid chlorine subsidies will continue to increase, and cost support remains. The chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment - Inter - delivery: Long V01 and short V05 to capture price fluctuations - Inter - variety: No strategy Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see