1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on caustic soda investment [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the conflict between the United States and Iran, there is an expectation of significant production cuts in the future, leading to a bullish outlook on caustic soda [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance has decreased, and production has increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production has increased by 0.3 tons to 85 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises is 85.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1%. The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded, and coastal chlor - alkali plants are expected to cut production due to raw material issues [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production has declined, and non - aluminum demand is weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 90.14%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang is 50.83%, an increase of 7.50% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 13.34%. In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda exports were 309,638.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3,429,614.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6% [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 534,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.15%. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 30.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The inventory in the central China sample warehouse has increased by 21.74%, while that in the eastern China sample warehouse has decreased by 12.78% [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 666, and the futures price is at a significant premium [3] - **Profit**: During the week, raw material and auxiliary material costs decreased, energy costs increased slightly, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased significantly, and the overall chlor - alkali profit increased. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been adjusted to 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is neutral, and the main contract is at a significant premium [3] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded, causing a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC, and some chlor - alkali plants are facing shutdown [3] - **Investment View**: Bullish, as the conflict between the United States and Iran is expected to lead to significant production cuts in the future [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended for now [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - This week, the spot price in Shandong has slightly increased, while the futures price has increased significantly. On the supply side, liquid chlorine prices have rebounded, the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is in the red, there is less maintenance, and enterprises have less load reduction, resulting in relatively high overall supply. On the demand side, downstream customers resist high prices and make purchases based on rigid demand. Traders have a weak enthusiasm for stockpiling, but export transactions are good. The inventory accumulation in Shandong is better than expected, the inventory pressure is small, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. However, the conflict between the United States and Iran has led to a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC plants, and some plants are planning to shut down or reduce their loads. As a co - product, caustic soda is also facing shutdown or load reduction, which is expected to lead to a shortage of caustic soda supply in the future [6] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal prices have stabilized, and electricity prices are fluctuating within a range [33] - **Upstream Production**: The production capacity utilization rate remains at a high level, and inventory is being depleted [36] - **Production in Main Production Areas**: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased [39] - **Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [40] - **Downstream Prices**: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [43] - **Alumina**: The supply - demand balance of alumina has been restored, and inventory has increased. Port bauxite inventory has increased. Alumina profit is poor, but there has been no significant production cut. The supply is in surplus, and the bauxite inventory of factories has increased significantly [55][61] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the startup rate is at a low level. The printing and dyeing market is weak, and the short - term market recovery is乏力 [62][63] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The startup rate has rebounded [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of caustic soda futures has risen due to the dual drivers of supply decline and increased exports. The core driving logic is the significant fluctuations in crude oil prices leading to large - scale price fluctuations in chemical futures, which have a great impact on caustic soda futures. Additionally, the conflict between the US and Iran has made it difficult to transport ethylene from the Middle East, causing overseas PVC plants to reduce their loads, and some domestic PVC enterprises that purchase ethylene externally to also reduce their loads, resulting in a passive reduction in the load of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises. This has led to a substantial increase in the export demand for domestic caustic soda. At the same time, some factories have reduced production due to sudden failures, further reducing the supply. Moreover, some downstream industries of liquid chlorine have reduced their liquid chlorine procurement plans due to maintenance or an inability to accept high prices, leading to a significant drop in the price of liquid chlorine, which in turn provides an upward driving force for the price of liquid caustic soda. Looking ahead, with the decline in overseas caustic soda production and the reduction in domestic supply, the logic of supply shortage and export volume increase still exists. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the situation of long - position profit - taking and the regression of the basis when the overseas caustic soda procurement sentiment fades [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: In the week from March 6th to March 12th, 2026, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons or more was 85.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. The chlor - alkali loads in North China, Central China, and South China decreased significantly, driving the national chlor - alkali load to decline moderately. It is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load next week will be around 85%. The alumina production in this period was 1785,000 tons, a slight increase from the previous week. The production of viscose staple fiber was 92,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous week. As of March 12th, the physical inventory of viscose staple fiber factories was 147,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 15,500 tons [5]. - **Demand**: As of March 12th, 2026, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 50.15%, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. The startup rate in the Shaoxing region was 51.11%, an increase of 8.89% from the previous data but a year - on - year decrease of 13.33%. The startup and orders of dyeing factories show an obvious differentiation trend. Most dyeing factories have fully resumed work, but the order structure is differentiated. Some enterprises focusing on digital printing and differentiated products have sufficient orders and extended delivery times. The industry mostly purchases on - demand, and the overall order - receiving of dyeing factories shows a "short - term and long - term" structure, with intense competition for conventional products. In terms of dyeing fees, enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, but the downstream acceptance is limited. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in the Shengze region was 49.47%, an increase of 7.89% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 12.11%. The terminal weaving industry is warming up slowly, and the domestic market and brand orders are mostly in a wait - and - see state. The rigid demand has been slightly released, mainly in small batches, and the large - scale orders are limited. In terms of foreign trade, due to unstable shipping factors, some brand and market orders have been placed, but the order volume is still significantly narrower than last year [5]. - **Export**: In December, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 309,600 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 59,400 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of March 11th, 2026, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in the country was 534,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.15%. The capacity utilization ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 30.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%. Except for the stable capacity utilization ratio in Central China and the increase in the Southwest, the capacity utilization ratios in the Northwest, Northeast, North China, East China, and South China decreased month - on - month [5]. - **Profit**: This Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2094 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was 300 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 280 yuan/ton, which is at a historically low level. The strong chlorine and weak caustic soda situation has led to a low comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [5]. 3.2 Price - **Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Price**: The report presents the historical price trends of Shandong 32% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price, the price difference between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, Shandong liquid chlorine price, and Shandong 50% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price from 2023 to 2026 [7][8]. - **Flake Caustic Soda and Export Caustic Soda Price**: It shows the historical price trends of Shandong flake caustic soda from 2023 to 2026 and the FOB price of caustic soda in East China from 2024 to 2026 [10][11]. - **Caustic Soda Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - Month Spread**: The report provides the historical price trends of the caustic soda main contract from 2024 to 2026, the basis of the 32% caustic soda main contract in Shandong region from 2024 to 2026, the basis of the 50% caustic soda main contract in Shandong region from 2024 to 2026, and the spread between the SH04 - SH05 contracts from 2024 - 2025 and 2025 - 2026 [12][13]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Price**: It shows the historical price trends of Shandong sea salt market price from 2022 to 2026, Shandong well - mine salt market price from 2024 to 2026, and Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price from 2022 to 2026 [15][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply**: The report presents the historical trends of China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda plant loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production from 2022 to 2026 [18][19]. - **Caustic Soda Maintenance Situation**: This week, the Ganzhou Luoci in East China - Jiangxi resumed operation after a shutdown for maintenance from February 14th to March 3rd; the Jiangmen Guangyue in South China - Guangdong is under maintenance since February 24th, and the recovery time is to be determined. In the future, Hubei Yihua in Central China - Hubei plans to have maintenance from March 11th to the end of March; Jinling New Materials in North China - Shandong has a maintenance plan in March, with the specific time to be determined; Kesai Chemical in Central China - Hubei plans to shut down in early April for about 15 - 20 days; Baililian in Central China - Henan has a maintenance plan in April, with the specific time to be determined; Shandong Jinmao in North China - Shandong has a maintenance plan in April, with the specific time to be determined [22]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit**: It shows the historical trends of China's sample enterprises' liquid caustic soda inventory (wet tons), caustic soda futures warehouse receipt quantity, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt (dry tons), and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profit from 2022 to 2026 [23][24]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: The report presents the historical trends of China's alumina production, Shandong alumina production, alumina production in the Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan regions, alumina spot price in Shandong, Shandong alumina enterprise liquid caustic soda procurement price, electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory (excluding Xinjiang), and alumina in - transit inventory from 2022 to 2026 [27][28][29][30]. - **Textile Industry**: It shows the historical trends of viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, East China viscose staple fiber market price, viscose staple fiber factory inventory, Chinese cotton yarn enterprise viscose staple fiber inventory available days, Chinese textile enterprise weekly startup rate, Chinese textile enterprise order days, Chinese textile enterprise in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang region printing and dyeing factory startup rate from 2022 to 2026 [31][32][34][35]. - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: The report presents the historical trends of pulp production, paper product production, upstream factory paper product inventory available days, and China's machine - made paper and cardboard monthly production from 2021 to 2026 [37][38]. - **Export**: It shows the historical trends of China's monthly liquid caustic soda export volume, monthly flake caustic soda export volume, cumulative caustic soda export volume, and monthly caustic soda export volume from 2021 to 2025 [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, caustic soda showed a strong performance, with spot prices rising across the board and profits significantly restored. The core drivers were the triple positive factors of supply contraction, export expectations, and inventory reduction [4]. - In the short term, the continuation of maintenance and active export inquiries will continue to support the market, and there is still room for the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda to rise. Attention should be paid to the implementation of export orders and the actual procurement rhythm of downstream industries [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The sample enterprise capacity utilization rate dropped to 85.3%, and the weekly output was 844,000 tons, both showing a decline compared to the previous week. Multiple sets of equipment in Tianjin, Hubei, Guangxi and other places were under centralized maintenance, effectively alleviating the supply pressure. The apparent demand increased to 861,000 tons, and the supply - demand situation changed from loose to a slight tight balance. The national sample factory inventory was 534,200 tons, a 3.86% decrease compared to the previous week, and the storage capacity ratio declined. The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong averaged 651 yuan/ton per week, and 50% liquid caustic soda was 1,118 yuan/ton, with flake caustic soda also rising, especially in East and Central China. The cost of raw salt remained stable, and the gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises turned positive to 205 yuan/ton, with a significant improvement in profitability [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Caustic soda is expected to remain strong. - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines. - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants in Shandong decreased significantly, while the price remained stable. From January 18 to February 28, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong decreased from 630 yuan/ton to 590 yuan/ton [6][9]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: As of March 11, 2026, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 534,200 tons (wet tons), a 3.86% decrease compared to the previous week and a 19.15% increase compared to the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country this week was 30.41%, a 1.33% decrease compared to the previous week. Except for the stable storage capacity ratio in Central China and the increase in the storage capacity ratio in Southwest China, the storage capacity ratios in Northwest, Northeast, North, East, and South China decreased compared to the previous week [10]. - **Capacity Utilization**: This week (March 6 - 12, 2026), the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 85.3%, a 1.1% decrease compared to the previous week. The chlor - alkali loads in North, Central, and South China decreased significantly this week, driving the national chlor - alkali load to decline moderately. It is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load next week will be around 85% [13]. - **Price**: The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda all showed an upward trend. The prices of different regions and varieties had certain differences and fluctuations over time [24][27][29]. - **Profit**: The profit of caustic soda and chlor - alkali comprehensive profit showed certain trends and fluctuations in different regions and time periods. The profit of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu showed different trends in different years [37]. - **Consumption and Market Demand**: The demand for caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda showed certain trends and fluctuations over time. The operating capacity, output, and operating rate of alumina also showed corresponding changes. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber and the dyeing and printing operating rate also had certain trends [50][54][60][63]. - **Export**: The export volume of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda showed certain trends and fluctuations over time. The FOB price in North China and export profit also had corresponding changes [65][66].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. Although the "rush to export" has supported the spot, factors such as high social inventory, cost at a low - level compared to the same period, and high - level of warehouse receipts still exist. The long - term cost expectation of PVC has increased, and the future trend needs to focus on spot price acceptance, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [3] - The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The reduction of liquid chlorine price has strengthened the cost support, and the inventory in some areas has decreased. However, the demand side is generally weak, and the market purchasing power is insufficient. After the Spring Festival, the sentiment may improve with the resumption of work and restocking demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4938 yuan/ton (- 52), the East China basis is - 208 yuan/ton (+ 42), and the South China basis is - 98 yuan/ton (+ 32) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4840 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2945 yuan/ton (+ 15), the calcium carbide profit is 67 yuan/ton (+ 15), the production gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method is - 698 yuan/ton (- 39), the production gross profit of PVC ethylene method is 129 yuan/ton (+ 26), and the PVC export profit is 15.4 US dollars/ton (+ 0.2) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), the social inventory of PVC is 61.4 tons (+ 2.1), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 80.78% (+ 0.41%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene method is 73.69% (+ 0.44%), and the overall operation rate of PVC is 78.62% (+ 0.41%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 101.3 tons (- 5.8) [1] Market Analysis - The cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC since April 1 has led to strong export orders before, but recently the export orders have declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, the downstream operation rate has decreased significantly before the Spring Festival, and the social inventory has increased slightly and is at a high level compared to the same period. The cost of upstream chlor - alkali production has been slightly repaired, and the calcium carbide price has increased slightly, while the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still hedging pressure on the disk [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 1958 yuan/ton (+ 4), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 83 yuan/ton (+ 27) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 600 yuan/ton (+ 10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1000 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 858 yuan/ton (+ 31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 97.3 yuan/ton (+ 31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 525.71 yuan/ton (+ 10.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 44.29 tons (- 2.85), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.78 tons (+ 0.02), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 87.60% (- 0.20%) [2] - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.06% (- 0.71%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 0.00% (- 27.91%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.28% (- 0.15%) [2] Market Analysis - Before the Spring Festival, the downstream of liquid chlorine has reduced its load, the price of liquid chlorine has further decreased, the cost support of chlor - alkali has strengthened, and enterprises are more willing to support the price of caustic soda. Some spot prices of caustic soda have increased slightly. Although the current operation rate of caustic soda enterprises is high, the decrease in comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has increased the market's expectation of caustic soda maintenance, and short - sellers have reduced their positions, leading to a rebound in the disk. The low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing sentiment, and the inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased. However, the current demand side of caustic soda has a general receiving sentiment, the alumina plant has partially overhauled, the operation rate has decreased slightly, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda has decreased. The non - aluminum operation rate has decreased before the Spring Festival, and there has been some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing at low prices, but the subsequent purchasing behavior has weakened. The export orders have improved slightly. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the disk [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]

Price Index Overview - The Xinhua·Zhongyan industrial salt price index for January 2026 is reported at 903.81 points, a decrease of 12.73 points or 1.39% from December 2025, and a decline of 96.19 points or 9.62% from the base period of January 2018 [1] - Compared to the peak of 1736.66 points in April 2022, the index has decreased by 832.85 points or 47.96%, while it has increased by 87.61 points or 10.73% from the lowest point of 816.2 points in August 2020 [1] Regional Price Changes - In January 2026, industrial salt prices increased in Anhui, Hubei, Yunnan, and Tianjin compared to December 2025, while prices remained stable in Sichuan and decreased in several provinces including Shaanxi, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Henan, Chongqing, Xinjiang, Hebei, Shandong, Hunan, and Ningxia [3] - The price of industrial salt in various provinces is detailed, with notable changes including a 2.03% decrease in Shaanxi and a 2.33% increase in Hubei [5] Market Dynamics - The overall market for raw salt continues to exhibit a pattern of ample supply and stable demand, with trading prices showing narrow fluctuations [6] - The northern sea salt production areas are primarily relying on inventory sales, maintaining stable market supply despite some regional supply constraints due to maintenance activities [7] - The demand from downstream industries remains generally stable, with purchasing primarily driven by rigid needs, although there is a slight increase in stocking activity as the Spring Festival approaches [6][9] Specific Market Segments - The sea salt market is operating steadily, with a focus on inventory sales and limited large-scale purchasing behavior from downstream two-soda enterprises [7] - The brine salt market is experiencing a weak supply-demand dynamic, with prices slightly declining due to stable supply and subdued demand from the two-soda industry [8] - The lake salt market is stable, with production adjusted according to downstream orders, maintaining a balanced supply [9] Downstream Product Performance - The domestic soda ash market continues to show a weak consolidation trend, with limited price fluctuations and a high overall supply [10] - Liquid alkali prices remain stable, with most chlor-alkali plants operating at high capacity, although demand from the aluminum industry is under pressure [11] - The market for flake alkali is experiencing a slight recovery in demand, leading to increased purchasing activity and a gradual rise in prices in some regions [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC market's overall supply - demand pattern remains weak, but recent "rush - to - export" sentiment supports the spot, and the long - term cost expectation is raised due to the mercury - free transformation. The PVC outlook is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the market acceptance of spot prices, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [3] - The spot price of caustic soda shows mixed trends. The low - price spot stimulates some pre - Spring Festival stocking purchases. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is generally weak. The export orders improve slightly. After the Spring Festival, the spot purchase may improve, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine and the downstream purchase rhythm [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4,992 yuan/ton (+11), the East China basis is - 212 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis is - 102 yuan/ton (+29) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,890 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 659 yuan/ton (+86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 103 yuan/ton (+82), and the PVC export profit is 8.9 dollars/ton (+9.9) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 28.8 tons (-0.2), the social inventory is 59.3 tons (+0.8), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.37% (+0.39%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 73.25% (+2.64%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.21% (+1.08%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 107.1 tons (+11.1) [1] Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and the "rush - to - export" led to strong export orders, which have recently declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. The supply is abundant, with a slight decline due to some maintenance. The downstream operation rate is decreasing, and there is a further decline expectation. The social inventory is slightly increasing and at a high level compared to the same period last year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit is slightly repaired, but still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price is rising, the semi - coke price is stable, the calcium carbide profit is improving, and the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 1,937 yuan/ton (+75), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton (-78) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 588 yuan/ton (-1), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1,010 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 821 yuan/ton (-3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 139.8 yuan/ton (-203.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 542.21 yuan/ton (-3.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 47.14 tons (-4.89), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.76 tons (+0.05), and the caustic soda operation rate is 87.80% (+0.10%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.06% (-0.71%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 27.91% (-22.74%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda shows mixed trends. The low - price spot stimulates some pre - Spring Festival stocking purchases, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu is decreasing. The overall supply operation is at a high level, and there are no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The demand side has a general receiving sentiment. Some alumina plants are under maintenance, the operation rate is slightly decreasing, the unloading efficiency is average, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda is decreasing. The non - aluminum industry is gradually entering the seasonal off - season. The export orders are slightly improving. Before the Spring Festival, the downstream operation rate of liquid chlorine is decreasing, the liquid chlorine price is falling, and the comprehensive cost support of chlor - alkali is strengthening. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the futures market [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, there were rumors that the second - phase roasting furnaces of a large alumina plant in North China were shut down for maintenance, leading to inventory backlog and suspension of front - end feeding, to be verified next week [4]. - The supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak. The supply - side device load decreased slightly, with the chlor - alkali operating load rate dropping 0.81 percentage points to 90.63%, and the caustic soda output in terms of 100% purity being 881,400 tons, a 0.89% decrease from the previous week. Although some device overhauls led to a slight reduction in supply, the overall supply was still sufficient [4]. - The demand side showed a differentiated operation, with rigid demand coming to an end. The operating capacity of the main downstream alumina dropped to 75.42% (a 2.34 - percentage - point decrease), weakening demand support; although the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased to 83.78%, due to the approaching Spring Festival, downstream stocking was basically over, and the overall willingness to receive goods became weaker [4]. - Inventory was depleted, and losses widened. The pressure on the upstream was relieved. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda factories in Shandong dropped to 109,800 tons, a significant 8.88% decrease from the previous week. Traders maintained low inventories due to risk - aversion sentiment, and the social inventory changed little. Profits were severely in the red, and the willingness to raise prices was strong. The average loss of chlor - alkali enterprises (including self - owned power plants) in Shandong expanded to 91.17 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by over 60% [4]. - It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will remain stable next week, with little room for significant fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work progress of downstream enterprises after the festival and changes in alumina procurement prices [4]. - For trading strategies, the caustic soda is expected to be weak in the single - side trading; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak. Supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but overall it was still sufficient. Demand was differentiated, with alumina demand weakening and viscose staple fiber demand tapering off. Inventory decreased, and losses widened. It is expected that prices will remain stable next week [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side: Caustic soda is weak; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5] Core Logic Analysis - **Alumina in Shandong**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants in Shandong was at a high level, and the price continued to decline. From January 4th to January 24th, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong was successively reduced by 15 yuan/ton each time, and the current delivery volume is 13,812 tons [7][10]. - **Alumina Operation**: This week, domestic overhauls and production cuts were frequent, and the operating capacity fluctuated. As of Friday, the national alumina built - in capacity was 114.62 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous week. Next week, two alumina enterprises in Guangxi will resume production, and two in Shanxi will enter the overhaul state. It is expected that the national operating level will fluctuate around 94 million tons. The spot trading atmosphere is expected to be lighter, and the spot price will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [17]. - **Caustic Soda Operation**: This week, the average utilization rate of the production capacity of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 87.8%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week. Regionally, the chlor - alkali loads in Central and South China increased, while those in North, East, and Southwest China slightly decreased, and those in Northwest and Northeast China were basically stable. The weekly production capacity utilization rate in Shandong was 90.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous week [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,400 tons (wet tons), a 9.41% decrease from the previous week and a 2.97% increase from the same period last year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 27.47%, a 2.56% decrease from the previous week. The storage capacity ratios in North, East, and South China decreased, while those in Northwest, Central, Northeast, and Southwest China increased [11]. - **Price**: The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and their regional and variety spreads are presented in the form of charts, reflecting the price trends from 2020 - 2026 [30][33][35]. - **Profit**: The profit charts of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu from 2022 - 2026 are provided, showing the profit trends and the prices of liquid chlorine [43]. - **Production**: The production capacity utilization rate, production volume, and provincial - level production volume of caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [52][55]. - **Consumption**: The demand, weekly consumption (including exports) of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [57][58]. - **Alumina**: The production, operating capacity, operating rate, and planned new production capacity of alumina from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts and tables. In the first quarter of 2026, there will be more new alumina production capacity, especially in Guangxi, which will drive the demand for 50% and flake caustic soda in Shandong and other places [61][66]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: The factory - level inventory and weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber from 2019 - 2026, and the operating rates of printing and dyeing in East China, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [69][70][72]. - **Export**: The export volume, FOB price in North China, and export profit of caustic soda from 2019 - 2026 are presented in the form of charts [74][75].

Group 1: Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,895 yuan/ton (-18), the East China basis was -215 yuan/ton (-2), and the South China basis was -175 yuan/ton (+18) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quoted price was 4,680 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide method quoted price was 4,720 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,855 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was -23 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -744 yuan/ton (+55), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was 21 yuan/ton (+70), and the PVC export profit was -0.8 US dollars/ton (+5.0) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 29.0 tons (-1.8), the social PVC inventory was 58.5 tons (+0.8), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.98% (-0.16%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 70.61% (-2.43%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 77.13% (-0.85%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 96.0 tons (+7.6) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 1,964 yuan/ton (-5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was -95 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 598 yuan/ton (-1), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,010 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 852 yuan/ton (-3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 411.0 yuan/ton (-3.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was -505.96 yuan/ton (-13.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 550.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 52.03 tons (+1.07), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.71 tons (-0.08), and the caustic soda operation rate was 87.40% (-0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 85.18% (-0.65%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 50.65% (-5.89%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st. There was a situation of rushing to export before April, and export orders remained at a high level. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market continued to be weak. The domestic PVC supply was abundant, and there were temporary short - term shutdowns for maintenance in some plants. There were no new maintenance enterprises next week. Downstream operation of some products was flat or declined, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased at low prices. Social inventory increased slightly and was at a high level year - on - year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit was slightly repaired, but still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price increased, and the semi - coke price was stable, with both in a loss state. PVC warehouse receipts were at a high level in the same period, and there was still hedging pressure on the futures market. Although the current export rush supported the spot, the export was expected to decline significantly after April, which would further loosen the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts. Attention should be paid to enterprise export dynamics and capital dynamics [3] Caustic Soda - The current spot price of caustic soda continued to be weak, and the supply - demand was also weak. The inventory in Shandong continued to increase, but at a slower pace. The overall supply - side operation was at a high level, the liquid caustic soda price declined, and chlor - alkali enterprises had a stronger willingness to support the liquid chlorine price. The price of epichlorohydrin downstream of liquid chlorine was strong this week due to pre - holiday inventory demand from downstream epoxy resin and solvents, which supported the liquid chlorine price. There were few planned maintenance enterprises for caustic soda. The demand - side receiving sentiment was average, the alumina plant operation declined slightly, the unloading efficiency was average, and some alumina plants in Shandong lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda. The production progress of alumina in Guangxi was postponed, and the market was pessimistic, resulting in insufficient purchasing power. Non - aluminum industries were gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and export orders remained sluggish. Attention should be paid to downstream receiving sentiment and fluctuations in liquid chlorine downstream devices and capital dynamics [3] Group 3: Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Sideways [4][5] - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low [4] - Inter - commodity spread: None [4][5] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Sideways [5] - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see [5] - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading atmosphere in the domestic liquid caustic soda market is dull today. The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Hebei regions have decreased, the price of 48% liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu region has decreased, and the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region has increased. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers in Shandong region is low, and recently some warehouse receipt goods have entered the market, impacting the market price. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda has decreased, the trading of 50% liquid caustic soda is stable, and the price remains unchanged. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong region today is 650 - 760 yuan/ton. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by a large local downstream alumina factory is 645 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong region is 1050 - 1210 yuan/ton, a decline from the previous working day's average price. The game between long and short positions is fierce, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Changes of Raw Materials and Products - **Raw Salt**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest remain unchanged at 240, 260, and 180 respectively [1] - **Calcium Carbide**: The prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remain unchanged at 250 and 3415 respectively [1] - **Liquid Chlorine**: The price in Shandong increases by 50 from 200 to 250, while the prices in Jiangsu and Northwest remain unchanged at 250 and - 100 respectively [1] - **32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong remain unchanged at 2156, 2438, and 1075 respectively [1] - **50% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong remain unchanged at 2160, 1280, and 1300 respectively [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes**: The prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, and Southwest remain unchanged at 3050, 2700, 2750, and 3375 respectively [1] - **PVC**: The price in Shandong remains unchanged at 3450 [1] 3.2 Futures and Basis - **Futures Main Contract**: The closing price in Inner Mongolia changes from 5550,2093 to 5550,2057, with a change of 0, - 36 [1] - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong increases by 38 from - 62 to - 24, and the basis in Jiangsu increases by 49 from 258 to 307 [1] 3.3 Price Differences and Profits - **Price Difference between 50% Caustic Soda and 32% Caustic Soda**: The price difference in Shandong remains unchanged at 4 [1] - **Price Difference between Caustic Soda Flakes and 50% Caustic Soda**: The price difference in Guangdong decreases by 31 from 48 to 16 [1] - **Regional Price Difference of 50% Caustic Soda**: The price difference between the east and Shandong remains unchanged at 515 [1] - **Regional Price Difference of Caustic Soda Flakes**: The price differences between Southwest and Inner Mongolia, and between Southwest and Shandong remain unchanged at 250 and 700 respectively [1] - **Chlor - alkali Profit**: The profit in Shandong increases by 1 from - 15 to - 14, and the profit in the Northwest decreases by 31 from 349 to 318 [1] 3.4 Electricity Price - The electricity prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remain unchanged at 0.63 and 0.44 respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market price of caustic soda has shown a slight decline this week, with expectations for continued price stabilization and minor decreases in the near future due to supply and demand dynamics [1] Price Trends - As of January 14, the price of caustic soda in the Inner Mongolia Wuhai region is 2600 RMB per ton, down 2.99% from 2680 RMB per ton the previous week [1] - The overall market is characterized by sufficient supply and weak demand from both alumina and non-alumina sectors, leading to inventory pressures among manufacturers [1] Market Sentiment - Manufacturers are experiencing a lack of confidence due to inventory build-up and shipping pressures, contributing to the downward price trend [1] - It is anticipated that the price of caustic soda will continue to stabilize with minor declines, as the fundamental supply and demand situation remains largely unchanged [1] Regional Insights - In the Xinjiang region, major caustic soda producers may reduce prices due to diminishing price advantages compared to Inner Mongolia and shortened pre-sale periods [1] - Other major production areas may adopt a temporary price stabilization strategy in response to the continuous price decline [1]