2025年5月份，新华.中盐两碱工业盐价格指数报947.78点，较上期(2025年4月)下跌15.96点，跌幅 1.66%；较基期(2018年1月)下跌52.22点，跌幅5.22%；较周期内最高点1736.66点(2022年4月)下跌788.88 点，跌幅4.43%；较周期内最低点816.2点(2020年8月)上涨131.58点，涨幅16.12%。 分区域来看，2025年5月，安徽、江苏、重庆、云南两碱工业盐出厂价格较2025年4月上涨；湖北、湖 南、四川、辽宁两碱工业盐出厂价格较2025年4月持平；陕西、江西、河南、新疆、河北、山东、天津 两碱工业盐出厂价格较2025年4月下跌。 分价格区间来看，本期两碱工业盐单价在300元／吨及以上的地区有3个，分别是河南、云南、辽宁；两 碱工业盐单价在300元／吨以下的地区有14个，分别是陕西、安徽、江苏、湖北、江西、重庆、新疆、 河北、山东、湖南、青海、四川、天津、宁夏。 5月份我国原盐市场呈现供应增长而需求平稳态势。五一假期结束，多地持续开展密集扒盐产盐工作， 月内海盐市场供应量显著上升，特别是河北、山东、江苏等主产区的产量增长明显。然而，下游碱企采 购需求跟进有限 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 烧碱破位下行，偏空思路对待 ——烧碱周报2025.06.09 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：中美贸易谈判释放利多信号，关注进展情况。 2、供需面：6月初烧碱市场装置检修较多，山东与华东液碱市场均 受"供应收缩"驱动，现货报价坚挺。不过6月检修规模整体不及上 月，且新增投产压力尚存，压制行情走低。周内终端需求表现有所 | 烧碱2509合约 上方参考压力 位2500元/吨 | 1、国内外宏 观政策及经 济数据变化； 2、企业装置 | | 烧碱 | | | | | | 分化，其中山东主力下游投产能支撑价格，但非铝市场高价抵触， | 一线，下方支 | 检修情况； | | | 终端采购消极。 | 撑位2200元/ | 3、下游需求 | | | 3、整体逻辑：液碱市场供需面变化不大，缺乏支撑，烧碱2509合约 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 价格偏弱运行，关注下方支撑 ——烧碱周报2025.04.28 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：国内重要会议释放政策利多信号，美国关税利空减弱，市 场避险情绪有所降温，关注谈判情况。 2、供需面：本周前期检修装置有恢复预期，且市场月底结算价逐步 出台，需求补库放缓，预估华东液碱行情弱稳整理。另外，五一小 | 烧碱2509合约 上方参考压力 位2550元/吨 | 1、国内外宏 观政策及经 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 长假来临，高价下游接货抵触，为保证库存不涨的情况，部分企业 | 一线，下方支 | 2、企业装置 检修情况； | | | 走货出现优惠属于合理。 | 撑位2350元/ | 3、下游需求 | | | 3、整体逻辑：氧化铝价格偏弱运行对烧碱负反馈延续，下方关注成 | 吨一线。 | 变化。 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.98 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 148%, reaching 2.03 billion RMB. The revenue for the same period was 29.76 billion RMB, up 17% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7.29 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 27% to 410 million RMB due to substantial inventory impairment losses [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from integrated production and scale advantages, with new capacity gradually coming online, which is anticipated to drive performance growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 29.76 billion RMB and a net profit of 2.03 billion RMB, with the fourth quarter revenue at 8.18 billion RMB, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 7.29 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year, but a 27% decline in net profit compared to the previous year [1][3]. Price Trends and Market Conditions - Average prices for various products, including butanol and DMF, declined in 2024 due to increased supply, with most products experiencing price drops [2][3]. - The company’s new projects, particularly in nylon production, are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [2]. Cost Management and Future Prospects - The cost side of coal chemical production showed improvement in the first quarter of 2025, with significant price drops in raw materials like coal [3]. - New projects, including a 400,000-ton organic silicon project, are expected to come online and contribute to future growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 2.0 billion RMB, 2.3 billion RMB, and 2.6 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.07 RMB, 1.22 RMB, and 1.39 RMB [4][6]. - The target price of 14.98 RMB is based on a 14x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's integrated advantages and potential from new projects [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.98 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 148%, reaching 2.03 billion RMB. The revenue for the same period was 29.76 billion RMB, up 17% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7.29 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 27% to 410 million RMB due to substantial inventory impairment losses [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from integrated production and scale advantages, with new capacity gradually coming online, which is anticipated to drive performance growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 29.76 billion RMB and a net profit of 2.03 billion RMB, with a proposed dividend of 0.35 RMB per share [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 8.18 billion RMB, a 10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 450 million RMB, up 46% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 7.29 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 27% [1][3]. Market Conditions - The average prices for various chemical products, including butanol and DMF, declined in 2024 due to oversupply, impacting revenue from the new materials and basic chemicals segments [2][3]. - The company’s new nylon 6 project and improved capacity utilization contributed to a 27% revenue increase in the new materials segment [2]. Cost Management - The cost side of the coal chemical sector showed improvement in the first quarter of 2025, with significant price drops in raw materials like power coal and lanthanum [3]. - The company has initiated new projects, including a 400,000-ton organic silicon project, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 estimates net profits of 2.0 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.6 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.07, 1.22, and 1.39 RMB [4][6]. - The report assigns a 14x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's integrated advantages and potential from new projects, leading to a target price of 14.98 RMB [4].

中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年4月7日 --------仓单出现近月合约承压 烧碱下游产业利润面临压缩困境 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱价格 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周液碱产量79.48万吨，环比上上周79.31万吨略有增长。山东有1套设备检修，但也有1套设备检修到期恢复生产；华东安徽设备存在检修预 | | | | 期；全国负荷或先增后降，周均负荷或小幅增加至85%左右，预计本周产量提升至81.6万吨 | | | 氧化铝 | 上周山东氧化铝液碱采购价格下跌94元/吨至 ...