Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the industry [6][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights TOP TOY as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, achieving a revenue of RMB 1.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.7% and a gross margin of 32.7% [3][13]. - The Chinese collectible toy market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size increase from RMB 207 billion in 2019 to RMB 587 billion in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% [4][45]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a diversified product matrix and a multi-layered IP ecosystem, which includes 17 proprietary IPs, 43 licensed IPs, and over 600 third-party IPs [3][13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - TOP TOY is recognized as a leading player in the collectible toy industry, with rapid revenue growth and a strong market presence [2][16]. - The company has established a comprehensive IP matrix and a robust sales network, including 299 offline stores and extensive online sales channels [6][65]. Market Overview - The collectible toy market in China is projected to reach RMB 2,133 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 20.9% from 2025 to 2029 [4][45]. - The market is characterized by a low concentration of competitors, with TOP TOY holding a market share of 2.2% in 2024 [58][59]. Product Experience and Operations - TOP TOY focuses on three main product categories: figurines, 3D assembly models, and plush toys, with figurines accounting for 69% of revenue in 2024 [70][74]. - The company has a strong supply chain that supports rapid product iteration and high-quality standards, enhancing consumer trust and brand loyalty [54][64]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies with strong IP operations, such as Bubble Mart and DaMai Entertainment, and emphasizes the potential for growth in the collectible toy market due to high demand and a fragmented competitive landscape [6][58].

Summary of Top Toy Conference Call Company Overview - Top Toy is a leading brand in the Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) market, achieving a GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) of over 1 billion RMB in 2023, the fastest among Chinese潮玩 brands to reach this milestone [2][3] - The company was spun off from Miniso and has expanded into multiple Asian markets, including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan, with 15 overseas stores opened [3] Financial Performance - Revenue growth from 6.79 billion RMB in 2020 to 14.61 billion RMB in 2023, projected to reach 19.09 billion RMB in 2024 and 13.6 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 31% and 59% respectively [6] - Net profit for 2024 and the first half of 2025 is expected to be 294 million RMB and 180 million RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 38% and 27% [6] - Gross margins are 32.7% for 2024 and 32.4% for the first half of 2025, while net margins are 15.4% and 13.2% respectively, indicating strong performance compared to peers like Pop Mart [6] IP Strategy - Top Toy has developed a comprehensive IP matrix, including 17 proprietary IPs, over 40 licensed IPs, and more than 600 third-party IPs as of September 2025 [8] - The company focuses on maximizing IP value through collaborations with top global partners like Sanrio and Disney, as well as local brands [8][10] - Revenue from licensed IP products is significant, with 889 million RMB in 2024 and 615 million RMB in the first half of 2025 [10] Product Structure - The product mix includes self-developed and sourced products, with self-developed products accounting for 49.1% in 2024 and 47.2% in the first half of 2025 [12] - Core product categories include figurines, 3D assembly models, and plush toys, with figurines being the best-sellers and plush toys showing the fastest growth [13] Channel Strategy - Top Toy employs a dual-channel strategy of direct sales and franchising, with over 100 stores opened domestically and internationally [9][16] - The company’s sales channels include direct stores (9.5%), franchisees (27.4%), distributors (55.3%), and online sales (7.7%) [16] - The partner model allows for rapid replication and standardization, with 70 partners as of the first half of 2025 [17] Market Trends - The潮玩 industry is expected to grow significantly, with the retail market projected to increase from 20.7 billion RMB in 2019 to 213.3 billion RMB by 2030, achieving a compound annual growth rate of over 20% [7] Management and Ownership Structure - Pre-IPO, Miniso held 86.9% of Top Toy, with Temasek holding 4% and management and employees holding 8.4% [4][5] - The management team includes experienced individuals from Miniso and Uniqlo, enhancing operational capabilities [5] Conclusion - Top Toy is positioned as the largest and fastest-growing潮玩 brand, leveraging Miniso's retail network for rapid expansion and a diversified IP strategy to mitigate risks and ensure sustainable growth [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - TOP TOY, a subsidiary of Miniso, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the split expected to enhance the valuation of Miniso [4][10] - The rapid growth of the trendy toy industry has led to a doubling of TOP TOY's revenue in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 115%, and a projected revenue growth of 58.5% in the first half of 2025, reaching 1.36 billion yuan [4][10] - The Chinese trendy toy market is expected to grow from approximately 59 billion yuan in 2024 to about 213 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 21% from 2025 to 2030 [28] - TOP TOY is projected to be the largest trendy toy collection store in China by 2024, leveraging its advantages in product selection, supply chain, IP operation, and franchise resources [31] - The split listing of TOP TOY is anticipated to allow different types of investors to benefit and assist Miniso in achieving a revaluation [33] Summary by Sections Weekly Industry Insights - TOP TOY's listing application was submitted on September 26, 2025, and will operate independently post-split [4][10] - The company achieved profitability in 2023, with a projected profit growth of 40% in 2024, reaching 297 million yuan [4][10] Market Performance Review - From September 22 to September 28, the Shenwan retail index decreased by 4.32%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% [34][35] - Year-to-date performance shows the Shenwan retail index up by 1.91% [34][35] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies in the industry, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings [37]

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited is planning to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its rapid growth and significant market position in the collectible toy industry in China [1] Company Overview - TOP TOY is the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, where nearly 50% of its revenue comes from self-developed products [1] - Since opening its first store in December 2020, TOP TOY has established a comprehensive platform for the collectible toy industry, creating a multi-layered matrix of proprietary, licensed, and third-party IPs [1] Market Position and Growth - According to a report by Frost & Sullivan, TOP TOY's GMV is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% from 2022 to 2024, making it the fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China [1] - TOP TOY achieved the milestone of surpassing 1 billion yuan in GMV in the shortest time among Chinese collectible toy brands [1] Product Diversification - The company offers a diverse product matrix, including figurines and 3D assembly models, to meet varied consumer demands and expand its customer base [1]