行业评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 传媒 2026年1月23日 招股书·解牛系列报告（一） TOPTOY：中国位居前列的潮玩集合品牌 证券分析师 姓名：陈良栋 资格编号：S1350524100003 邮箱chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 目录 1. 公司概况：始于实体门店，成为潮玩集合零售商 2. 行业概况：潮玩IP产业景气度持续上修，TOP TOY市占 率高 3. 公司业务：打造"自有IP+授权IP+他牌IP"矩阵，构建 全产业价值链环节的一体化平台 4. 风险提示 • "产品不再是被动陈列的库存，而成为互动的道具。空间既为社交联结而设计，亦为交易转化而存在。" 核心观点 • 收入快速增长，盈利能力显著改善：2024年TOPTOY在中国内地实现GMV24亿元人民币，其中自研产品收入占比接 近50%。2022-2024年GMV复合年增长率超过50%。2022/2023/2024/2025H1分别实现收入6.79/14.61/19.09/13.60亿元， 对应毛利率19.9%/31.4%/32.7%/32.4%，对应经调整净 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" with a target price of HKD 410.00 for the company [1]. Core Insights - Recent market expectations for the company have been influenced by short-term high-frequency tracking data, leading to concerns about IP popularity and sustainable performance growth. However, the company's Q4 domestic and overseas performance shows strong resilience, supported by its IP matrix after the sales peak of Labubu 3.0. The report identifies three potential discrepancies in market expectations: comprehensive judgment of high-frequency data, growth potential of new IPs, and the potential of content and IP ecosystem layout [1]. Summary by Sections Q4 Overseas Market Performance - The report anticipates that Q4 overseas performance, particularly in North America, will exceed market pessimism. Despite a projected 10% decline in Tik Tok sales in Q4, improved inventory levels in stores are expected to enhance offline sales significantly compared to Q3. In Southeast Asia, while some countries saw a year-on-year decline in sales, this is attributed to natural channel structure changes, with strong growth anticipated in overall channel sales [2][3]. New IP Growth Potential - The report highlights that the diversification of IPs in Q4 has been successful, with new IPs like Star People and Crybaby gaining traction, reducing the sales share of Labubu. In Southeast Asia, the sales share of Labubu has dropped below 40%, with new IPs collectively accounting for over 50% in some markets. The report suggests that the company's channel layout in domestic and Southeast Asian markets is robust, allowing for the transmission of popularity from established to emerging IPs [3][4]. Ecosystem Development and Content Layout - The company's IP content layout is entering a practical implementation phase, with plans for animated shorts and potential feature films to enhance IP influence. The report draws parallels with the success of Sanrio's Hello Kitty in leveraging content to boost brand recognition and sales. The content strategy is expected to become a new tool for breaking into broader markets, complementing existing strengths in product offerings and fan engagement [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts, projecting adjusted net profits of RMB 135 billion, 185 billion, and 237 billion for 2025-2027. The target price is based on a PE ratio of 27x for 2026, reflecting the company's high barriers to entry and ongoing diversification of IP and business models [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is experiencing significant growth, with TOP TOY projected to achieve a GMV of 2.4 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% from 2022 to 2024 [10] - The global潮玩 market is expected to reach 38 billion USD by 2024, with a CAGR of 14% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a shift towards emotional consumption [11] - TOP TOY's business model leverages its parent company's retail expertise and emphasizes self-developed products, aiming for a self-research product ratio of over 50% by 2024 [12] Industry Growth - The潮玩 industry is witnessing a transition from functional attributes to emotional consumption, with strong growth in搪胶毛绒 (PVC plush) and手办 (figurines) categories [11] - By 2024, the Chinese潮玩 market is expected to account for 22% of the global market, increasing to 28% by 2030 [11] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a few dominant players, with TOP TOY ranked as the third-largest潮玩 retailer in China [28] Company Overview - TOP TOY has established a comprehensive IP matrix, combining self-owned, licensed, and third-party IPs to drive product diversity [57] - The company is expanding its international presence, with plans to open stores in Asia, including Japan and Southeast Asia [12][89] - TOP TOY's revenue is projected to reach 1.9 billion RMB in 2024, with a net profit of 294 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38% [10][12] Financial Performance - TOP TOY's revenue growth is supported by a strong increase in self-developed products and a diversified product matrix, with a significant portion of revenue coming from self-owned IPs [41][57] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit margin of 38% in 2024, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [12][44] Market Dynamics - The盲盒 (blind box) segment is projected to dominate the潮玩 market, with an expected market size of 58 billion RMB by 2025, accounting for 65% of the global market share [33][36] - The pricing strategy for盲盒 is shifting towards higher-end products, with a significant portion of sales occurring in the 50-200 RMB range [34] - The consumer demographic for盲盒 is predominantly young, with 40% of buyers aged 18-24, highlighting the importance of targeting this age group [35]

Core Insights - The value of IP (Intellectual Property) is not solely dependent on secondary market prices, as demonstrated by LABUBU's success, which relies on a solid fan base rather than speculative trading [1][7][22] - The period from 2018 to 2023 marked the initial growth phase for original潮玩 (trendy toys), with 2024 expected to be a turning point for market dynamics and IP commercialization [2][14] - The formula for IP commercialization is defined as IP x Category x Amplifier, emphasizing the importance of each component in driving growth and sustainability [9][19][23] Industry Trends - The潮玩 market has seen a shift from speculative trading to a focus on emotional value and everyday usage, with LABUBU's revenue projected to grow from 260 million in 2022 to 3 billion in 2024 [2][7] - The market is experiencing a re-evaluation of IP values, as evidenced by the volatility in stock prices for companies like泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart), which reflects concerns over the sustainability of popular IPs [2][22] - The introduction of new categories, such as搪胶毛绒 (rubber plush), is expected to drive further growth and diversification in the潮玩 sector [14][20] Business Strategies - Successful潮玩 companies must focus on serving IP rather than merely facilitating transactions, as demonstrated by the development of Lockerr, which enhances community engagement and operational efficiency for IP creators [8][9] - The choice of product category is crucial; categories that resonate with consumers, such as毛绒挂件 (plush hangers), can significantly enhance market appeal and sales potential [16][17] - Companies that innovate within specific categories and leverage their unique IP assets are more likely to achieve sustainable growth and market leadership [21][22] Market Dynamics - The潮玩 industry is characterized by a stark divide between leading brands and smaller players, with泡泡玛特 exemplifying high commercial value due to its control over the entire supply chain [22] - The next wave of successful潮玩 IPs is anticipated to emerge from companies that can effectively navigate market challenges and capitalize on category innovations [20][23] - The interplay between IP, category, and amplification strategies will determine the long-term viability and success of潮玩 brands in a competitive landscape [19][23]

Core Insights - In 2025, the toy industry welcomes a new player, "HERE Qimengdao," which has transitioned from an online adult education service provider to a toy brand after acquiring the brand Yiqi Culture [2][3] Group 1: Company Transition and Performance - Qimengdao, formerly known as "Quantum Song," has rebranded after acquiring Yiqi Culture and divesting its education business, marking a full pivot to the toy sector [2] - The company reported a significant revenue increase in Q3, reaching 127 million yuan, a 93.3% quarter-over-quarter growth, exceeding previous performance expectations [2] - The gross margin improved by 6.5 percentage points to 41.2%, indicating strong operational efficiency [2] Group 2: Strategic Direction and Market Positioning - Management has set a revenue guidance of 750 million to 800 million yuan for the fiscal year 2026, reflecting confidence in continued growth [2] - The company plans to open its first six self-operated stores in major cities like Beijing, Chongqing, and Shenzhen by the end of 2025 to enhance brand presence and user experience [8] Group 3: Acquisition and Integration Strategy - The acquisition of Yiqi Culture was driven by its strong product development capabilities and alignment in values, with the integration completed in under a year [4] - The focus on IP and product-driven strategies is seen as essential for long-term value creation, with the team’s core competencies in operations, marketing, and traffic management [4][12] Group 4: Supply Chain and Production Challenges - Initial supply chain challenges were faced due to rapid demand growth, with production capacity initially falling short, leading to stockouts [5][6] - By the end of December, production capacity is expected to reach approximately 400,000 units, addressing previous supply constraints [7] Group 5: Marketing and Brand Development - Qimengdao employs a flexible marketing budget based on total revenue, allowing for adaptive strategies in celebrity endorsements and other promotional activities [11] - The company emphasizes the importance of emotional value in the toy industry, using self-operated stores to strengthen user connections and gather feedback [8][13] Group 6: Future Outlook and Industry Trends - The company anticipates that the toy industry will experience cyclical trends, focusing on product iteration and operational innovation to extend the lifespan of its IPs [15] - Qimengdao maintains a cautious approach to future investments and acquisitions, prioritizing strategic resource acquisition over indiscriminate spending [16]

Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 market is rapidly expanding due to factors such as rising disposable income, the emergence of emotional consumption, the rise of domestic潮流 culture, and quality IPs [1][4] - The competitive landscape of the潮玩 market in China is relatively fragmented, with significant room for improvement compared to Japan [1][5] 潮玩 Industry Overview -潮玩 is defined as toys that integrate elements of潮流 culture, art, design, and various other concepts, characterized by high visual recognition, limited releases, and cross-industry collaborations [1] - The潮玩 industry includes various forms such as blind boxes, figurines, plush toys, gashapon, cards, dolls, art toys, assembly toys, and building sets [1] 潮玩 Industry Chain - The upstream segment consists of IP suppliers and operators, where high-quality IP suppliers hold strong bargaining power based on the scarcity and market popularity of their IPs [2] - The midstream includes潮玩 product manufacturers, who generally have weaker bargaining power; manufacturers with large-scale production capabilities are more likely to succeed [2] - The downstream segment involves retailers and consumers, where retailers' bargaining power depends on the quantity and quality of their IP reserves [2] Comparison with Japanese Toy Industry - The Japanese toy industry has matured and offers valuable lessons for China; despite challenges like declining birth rates, the industry has thrived due to the rise of gaming and anime [3] - In China, rising disposable income and a shift towards emotional consumption are driving demand for潮玩 and related products, despite demographic challenges [3] Market Growth and Projections - The Chinese潮玩 market is projected to grow from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.11% [4] Market Concentration and Competition - The Chinese潮玩 market is currently fragmented, with the top five companies holding a combined market share of only 23.7% [5] - New domestic companies are rapidly expanding, with significant growth rates compared to international giants [5] - The quality and quantity of domestic IPs are increasing, with notable examples including《原神》,《黑神话：悟空》, and characters from泡泡玛特 [5]

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise approximately $300 million [1] - The brand has experienced rapid expansion in the潮玩 market since its establishment in 2020, positioning itself as a "潮玩聚集地" [1][2] - Despite impressive revenue growth, TOP TOY faces challenges in maintaining its expansion rate and profitability due to reliance on external IPs and a franchise model [8][12] Company Overview - TOP TOY was founded in 2020 and has quickly grown to become a significant player in the潮玩 market, which is projected to grow from RMB 207 billion in 2019 to RMB 587 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 23.2% [1][2] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 19.09 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.64% [2][5] - The product range includes self-developed and externally sourced IPs, with a focus on figures, 3D models, and plush toys [1][4] Market Position and Growth - TOP TOY's store count increased from 117 in 2022 to 293 by mid-2025, with a notable rise in franchise stores [2][4] - However, the growth in store numbers has not translated into proportional revenue growth, indicating a potential slowdown in expansion [2][4] - The company’s revenue structure shows that潮玩 product sales account for approximately 97% of total income, with distributors contributing nearly 50% of revenue [4][5] Profitability and Financial Performance - TOP TOY achieved profitability in 2023, with net profits of RMB 2.97 billion in 2024 and RMB 1.8 billion in the first half of 2025, resulting in a net profit margin of about 13.2% [5][8] - The gross margin has been relatively low, ranging from 28% to 30%, primarily due to the franchise model and reliance on external IPs [4][5] IP Strategy and Challenges - The company has a significant number of licensed IPs but lacks strong self-developed IPs, which limits its competitive edge in the market [8][12] - The reliance on external IPs poses risks such as rising licensing costs and potential expiration of contracts, which could impact long-term growth [8][12] - TOP TOY is investing in developing its own IPs, having acquired stakes in companies to enhance its IP portfolio [11][12] Channel Structure and Future Outlook - The current channel structure is heavily reliant on distributors and franchisees, with over 50% of revenue coming from this model [13][15] - The company aims to reduce dependency on its parent company’s distribution channels to enhance brand identity and market presence [17] - Future plans include expanding the store count to 380-400 by the end of the year and targeting 1,000 stores globally within five years [17]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) is being held in Shanghai from November 5 to 10, showcasing global consumer trends and lifestyle aspirations [1] - Pop Mart, a leading cultural and entertainment group, is celebrating its 15th anniversary at the expo with a themed booth that highlights its IP-centric strategy [1][4] - The expo features over 4,108 overseas exhibitors from 155 countries and regions, marking a record high in exhibition area and number of companies [3] Company Highlights - Pop Mart's booth features popular IPs SKULLPANDA and CRYBABY, designed to create an immersive experience for attendees [2][4] - SKULLPANDA, created by artist 熊喵, embodies the aesthetic of "boundless imagery," while CRYBABY, by artist Molly, focuses on emotional expression [2] - The company has expanded its product range to include various categories such as figurines and plush toys, enhancing consumer engagement [3] International Strategy - Pop Mart's international strategy has led to significant growth, with all four major regions achieving triple-digit growth in the first half of 2025, particularly in the Americas with over tenfold growth [4] - The company has opened its first store in Qatar at Hamad International Airport, marking its entry into the Middle East [4] - By 2025, Pop Mart aims to continue expanding its global presence, having already surpassed 570 stores worldwide [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the participation of Pop Mart at the 8th China International Import Expo, showcasing its internationalization and IP-centric strategy through popular IPs like SKULLPANDA and CRYBABY, while celebrating its 15th anniversary [3][5][11]. Group 1: Event Overview - The 8th China International Import Expo took place from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai, featuring Pop Mart in the consumer goods section with a theme of "Creating Trends, Boundless Play" [3]. - Pop Mart's booth design was inspired by a "birthday celebration," reflecting its achievements in IP-driven internationalization and attracting significant visitor interaction [5][11]. Group 2: IP Showcase - Pop Mart prominently displayed its popular IPs SKULLPANDA and CRYBABY, which resonate emotionally with global consumers and embody high-quality lifestyle aspirations [7][10]. - SKULLPANDA, created by artist 熊喵, promotes the aesthetic of "boundless exploration," while CRYBABY, by artist Molly, focuses on emotional expression, both of which have gained global resonance [7][9]. Group 3: Product Innovation - The company showcased a variety of products, including figurines and plush toys, emphasizing its innovative approach to expand consumer engagement [9]. - Pop Mart has developed a diverse product matrix, including new categories like building blocks and jewelry, enhancing the life of its IPs and providing varied consumer experiences [9][13]. Group 4: Global Expansion - Pop Mart's international strategy has led to significant growth, with all four major regions achieving over 100% growth in the first half of 2025, particularly in the Americas, which saw a tenfold increase [13][15]. - The company has opened its first stores in iconic locations globally, including the UK and Indonesia, and recently established its first store in Qatar, marking a significant milestone for a Chinese brand [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the industry [6][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights TOP TOY as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, achieving a revenue of RMB 1.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.7% and a gross margin of 32.7% [3][13]. - The Chinese collectible toy market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size increase from RMB 207 billion in 2019 to RMB 587 billion in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% [4][45]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a diversified product matrix and a multi-layered IP ecosystem, which includes 17 proprietary IPs, 43 licensed IPs, and over 600 third-party IPs [3][13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - TOP TOY is recognized as a leading player in the collectible toy industry, with rapid revenue growth and a strong market presence [2][16]. - The company has established a comprehensive IP matrix and a robust sales network, including 299 offline stores and extensive online sales channels [6][65]. Market Overview - The collectible toy market in China is projected to reach RMB 2,133 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 20.9% from 2025 to 2029 [4][45]. - The market is characterized by a low concentration of competitors, with TOP TOY holding a market share of 2.2% in 2024 [58][59]. Product Experience and Operations - TOP TOY focuses on three main product categories: figurines, 3D assembly models, and plush toys, with figurines accounting for 69% of revenue in 2024 [70][74]. - The company has a strong supply chain that supports rapid product iteration and high-quality standards, enhancing consumer trust and brand loyalty [54][64]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies with strong IP operations, such as Bubble Mart and DaMai Entertainment, and emphasizes the potential for growth in the collectible toy market due to high demand and a fragmented competitive landscape [6][58].