Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economic landscape, particularly in relation to tariffs and fiscal policy ahead of the midterm elections in 2026 [2][5][30]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost of Living Concerns**: The cost of living remains the top issue for voters, with 29% citing it as their primary concern, an increase from 25% prior to the 2024 presidential election [2][5]. - **Political Landscape**: Democrats are perceived to have an advantage in the House for the upcoming midterms, while Republicans maintain a safer majority in the Senate [5][30]. - **Tariff Policy**: - The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which could lead to lower tariff rates [2][7][11]. - A decline in the effective tariff rate is anticipated, with projections indicating a reduction of around 2 percentage points (pp) by the end of 2026 [2][18]. - The administration may seek to replace IEEPA tariffs with tariffs under different authorities, potentially capping rates at 15% [2][12]. - **Fiscal Policy**: - A second fiscal package is considered possible but unlikely due to high hurdles in Congress [30][34]. - Proposed measures include extending health insurance subsidies and additional defense spending, but consensus among Republicans is lacking [30][34][36]. - The potential for a $2000/person tariff rebate has not gained traction due to fiscal concerns and opposition to the tariffs [30][35]. Additional Important Content - **Housing Policy**: Executive actions on housing are likely, focusing on government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with potential adjustments in loan pricing and the introduction of a 50-year mortgage product [3][40]. - **USMCA Review**: The review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026 could lead to lower tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, particularly on products subject to sectoral tariffs [28][30]. - **US-China Relations**: The economic relationship with China is expected to stabilize, with a recent agreement to delay export controls and reduce tariffs from 20% to 10% [29][30]. - **Sectoral Tariffs**: Investigations into sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may not lead to immediate tariff impositions, as the administration is likely to proceed cautiously [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding U.S. economic policies, particularly in the context of tariffs and fiscal measures leading up to the midterm elections.

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Trump administration is likely to implement tariff reductions and fiscal stimulus measures before the upcoming midterm elections to boost voter sentiment [1][2]. Tariff Reductions - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2026, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. will decrease by approximately 2 percentage points from current levels, although it will still be 9.5 percentage points higher than early 2025 [1][10]. - The Supreme Court is expected to rule that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceed its legal authority, which could lead to a significant reduction in tariffs [3][10]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the IEEPA tariffs, the Trump administration may need to rely on other legal authorizations, such as the Trade Act of 1974, which allows for tariffs of up to 15% for a period of 150 days [3][4]. - Current IEEPA tariffs contribute approximately 7.5 percentage points to the effective tariff rate, with a potential reduction of about 1.6 percentage points if tariffs are capped at 15% [4]. Fiscal Stimulus Measures - The Trump administration may also utilize fiscal policy to improve economic sentiment ahead of the midterm elections, with a potential second round of fiscal stimulus facing significant hurdles [5][8]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the first round of fiscal measures will peak in its impact on growth by the second quarter of 2026, with tax refunds expected to increase by nearly $100 billion from February to April [5][6]. - There is a 50% probability that at least $1,000 in stimulus checks will be issued to Americans by the end of 2026, despite challenges in passing a comprehensive fiscal plan [6][8]. Housing Policy and Regulatory Reforms - Goldman Sachs believes that administrative measures related to housing are likely to be implemented, focusing on government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [9][10]. - Potential options include adjustments in loan pricing, the introduction of 50-year mortgage products, and possibly expanding the GSEs' balance sheets to hold more mortgage-backed securities [9]. - Legislative reforms to simplify the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are also expected to have a significant chance of becoming law in the coming months, which would streamline federal reviews of major infrastructure projects [10].