Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Trump administration is likely to implement tariff reductions and fiscal stimulus measures before the upcoming midterm elections to boost voter sentiment [1][2]. Tariff Reductions - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2026, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. will decrease by approximately 2 percentage points from current levels, although it will still be 9.5 percentage points higher than early 2025 [1][10]. - The Supreme Court is expected to rule that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceed its legal authority, which could lead to a significant reduction in tariffs [3][10]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the IEEPA tariffs, the Trump administration may need to rely on other legal authorizations, such as the Trade Act of 1974, which allows for tariffs of up to 15% for a period of 150 days [3][4]. - Current IEEPA tariffs contribute approximately 7.5 percentage points to the effective tariff rate, with a potential reduction of about 1.6 percentage points if tariffs are capped at 15% [4]. Fiscal Stimulus Measures - The Trump administration may also utilize fiscal policy to improve economic sentiment ahead of the midterm elections, with a potential second round of fiscal stimulus facing significant hurdles [5][8]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the first round of fiscal measures will peak in its impact on growth by the second quarter of 2026, with tax refunds expected to increase by nearly $100 billion from February to April [5][6]. - There is a 50% probability that at least $1,000 in stimulus checks will be issued to Americans by the end of 2026, despite challenges in passing a comprehensive fiscal plan [6][8]. Housing Policy and Regulatory Reforms - Goldman Sachs believes that administrative measures related to housing are likely to be implemented, focusing on government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [9][10]. - Potential options include adjustments in loan pricing, the introduction of 50-year mortgage products, and possibly expanding the GSEs' balance sheets to hold more mortgage-backed securities [9]. - Legislative reforms to simplify the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are also expected to have a significant chance of becoming law in the coming months, which would streamline federal reviews of major infrastructure projects [10].

Group 1 - The Swiss government announced a trade agreement with the US, reducing tariffs on Swiss products from 39% to 15%, impacting approximately 40% of Swiss exports [1] - Swiss companies are committed to investing $200 billion in the US by the end of 2028, with a significant portion expected to come from the pharmaceutical and life sciences sectors [1][2] - The agreement sets a 15% tariff ceiling for Swiss pharmaceutical companies, protecting them from potential high tariffs under the upcoming "national security tariffs" [2] Group 2 - The trade agreement will also lower import tariffs on industrial goods, fish, seafood, and certain agricultural products deemed "non-sensitive" by Switzerland [2] - In 2024, the trade surplus between Switzerland and the US is projected to be $38.3 billion, expanding to $55.7 billion in the first seven months of 2025 [2] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to significantly benefit Swiss small and medium-sized manufacturers, providing them with competitive conditions in the US market [2] Group 3 - The KOF economic research institute forecasts that the economic growth rate for Switzerland in 2026 will be 0.9%, but this could exceed 1% due to the tariff reductions [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent trade agreements between the United States and several Asian economies, excluding China, and their potential impact on trade dynamics in the region [8][10][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Trade Agreements and Economic Uncertainty**: The recent trade agreements are expected to reduce uncertainty in trade relations, particularly with China and India, which may support a recovery in non-tech exports [8][10][11]. - **Non-Tech Exports Performance**: Non-tech exports, which account for 75% of Asia's total exports, have shown signs of weakness but are projected to recover gradually starting early next year [3][8][20][22]. - **Impact of Tariff Reductions**: The anticipated reduction in tariffs, particularly with India and China, could lower the average tariff rate on U.S. imports from Asia by approximately 5 percentage points to 20% [11][15][22]. - **Economic Growth Projections**: The report suggests that if non-tech exports recover, it will significantly contribute to broader economic improvements, boosting capital spending and employment [8][10][22]. Additional Important Insights - **Current Export Trends**: As of September 2025, Asia's overall exports have increased by 6%, primarily driven by strong tech exports, which grew by 17% in August [17][18][20]. - **Weakness in Non-Tech Exports**: Non-tech exports have been relatively stagnant, with only a 3% year-over-year increase in August, reflecting a potential "pullback effect" from earlier order placements [20][22]. - **Future Expectations**: The report anticipates a mild recovery in non-tech exports due to decreasing uncertainty and the gradual effects of monetary easing, which should support overall demand [22][23]. Conclusion - The recent trade agreements and expected tariff reductions are likely to play a crucial role in stabilizing and potentially enhancing trade dynamics in Asia, particularly for non-tech exports, which are essential for broader economic recovery [8][10][11][22].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is beginning to implement the trade agreement reached with Japan in July, as evidenced by the reduction of tariffs on Japanese automobiles [2][5] - The tariff on Japanese cars will decrease from 27.5% to 15%, in addition to the existing 2.5% tariff, effective from September 16 [2][4] - A presidential order signed by President Trump on September 4 includes measures for reciprocal tariff reductions and eliminates tariffs on over 490 categories of aircraft parts [4][5] Group 2 - The reciprocal tariff reduction will unify the tax burden to 15%, retroactive to August 7, with excess tariffs to be refunded [4] - The aircraft parts previously subject to steel and aluminum tariffs will also see their tax burdens eliminated starting from September 16 [4]

Core Points - The U.S. President Trump signed an order to implement a reduction in tariffs on Japanese automotive imports and other products, as announced in July [1] - After months of negotiations, the agreement was formally signed, reducing uncertainty in the Japanese automotive industry and confirming Japan's investment of $550 billion in U.S. projects [1] - The reduced tariffs on Japanese automobiles will take effect seven days after the order is announced, with some reductions retroactive to August 7 [1] - The tariff rate on Japanese automobiles is set to decrease from the current 27.5% to 15%, effective by the end of the month [1]

Group 1: Gold Futures Market - The total amount of gold futures in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 35,643 kilograms, with an increase of 2,181 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The main gold futures opened at 771.30 CNY per gram, with a high of 772.44 CNY and a low of 766.86 CNY, currently trading at 770.28 CNY, reflecting a change of 0.37% [1] - Trading volume reached 260,701 contracts, with an open interest of 217,080 contracts, increasing by 2,975 contracts for the day [1] Group 2: Pakistan-US Trade Agreement - A new trade agreement between Pakistan and the US aims to enhance bilateral trade, expand market access, and attract investment, particularly in energy, minerals, IT, and cryptocurrency sectors [1] - The agreement includes a reduction in reciprocal tariffs, especially on goods exported from Pakistan to the US, although specific tariff rates were not disclosed [1] - The Finance Minister of Thailand expects to receive information on US tariff rates within 24 hours [1]

Core Points - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.06%, while the Dow Jones rose by 132 points, reflecting a gain of 0.30%. The Nasdaq, however, experienced a decline of 0.29% [1] Group 1 - The reduction of tariffs on Philippine goods from 20% to 19% by President Trump may impact trade dynamics and pricing strategies for companies involved in importing these goods [1]

Group 1 - Canada has withdrawn its digital services tax (DST) targeting major tech companies like Meta and Alphabet to facilitate trade negotiations with the U.S. [2][4] - The withdrawal of the DST is expected to significantly advance trade talks, with a goal to reach an agreement by July 21 [2][4]. - The DST, which was set at a 3% rate on revenues exceeding CAD 20 million (approximately USD 14.6 million), would have cost large tech companies billions annually [4]. Group 2 - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on British automobiles to 10%, down from 25%, as part of a new economic agreement between the U.S. and the UK [6]. - The new tariff rate applies to a quota of 100,000 cars per year, benefiting companies like Jaguar Land Rover compared to competitors from other countries [6]. - The UK remains the only country exempt from the U.S. global 25% steel tariff, but negotiations for a zero-tariff agreement on steel are ongoing and face challenges [6][7].

Group 1 - Canada has withdrawn its digital services tax (DST) targeting major tech companies like Meta and Alphabet to facilitate trade negotiations with the U.S. [3][4] - The U.S. and Canada aim to resume trade talks and reach an agreement by July 21, with significant economic interests for both nations, as Canada exports a large portion of its goods to the U.S. [3][4] - The digital services tax, which was set at a 3% rate on revenues exceeding 20 million CAD (approximately 14.6 million USD), will be completely abolished, relieving tech companies of substantial costs [4][5] Group 2 - Starting Monday, U.K. automotive manufacturers will face a reduced tariff of 10% on exports to the U.S., down from the previous 25% [6][7] - The agreement between the U.S. and U.K. also includes a reduction of tariffs on aerospace products to zero, although steel tariffs remain at 25% [7][8] - The new tariff structure is expected to benefit companies like Jaguar Land Rover, while the U.K. continues to negotiate for a zero-tariff agreement on steel [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - China's exports to the United States in May amounted to $28.8 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 35%, the largest drop since February 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic began [1][2]. Group 1: Export Data and Trends - The decline in exports to the U.S. has worsened compared to April's 21% drop, despite a mutual reduction of additional tariffs by 115% agreed upon during ministerial talks in Switzerland on May 10-11 [1][2]. - The significant drop in exports is attributed to high tariffs that had previously hindered shipments, with companies needing time to adjust and resume normal operations post-tariff reduction [3][4]. - Specific categories of goods, such as smartphones, toys, and furniture, have seen a decline in exports compared to the same period last year, with smartphones down over 20% [5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Predictions indicate a temporary recovery in June, with a surge in exports expected to continue until August [4]. - Despite the challenges in U.S. exports, China's overall exports to other countries remain strong, with ASEAN being the largest export destination, showing a 15% increase compared to last year [6].