Core Viewpoint - The price of 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has reached a record low, indicating a significant decline in the market for Moutai products, which is impacting the company's stock performance and raising concerns among investors [1][2]. Price Trends - On September 14, the wholesale reference price for 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai dropped to 1770 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, marking the lowest price since its launch [1] - The original box price remained at 1790 yuan, also a historical low, with both prices showing a cumulative decline of over 20% compared to their initial prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [1] - The wholesale price for the 1L "Kilo Moutai" is reported at 3300 yuan, down 18.92% year-to-date from the initial price of 3700 yuan, indicating a significant market adjustment [2] Stock Performance - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has been under pressure, with a slight decline of 0.49% on September 12, closing at 1516 yuan per share [2] - The stock has experienced a downward trend since the wholesale price first fell below 2000 yuan on June 11, with a series of price drops occurring over the following months [2] Retail Market Dynamics - Retail prices are showing aggressive trends, with some platforms listing the 2025 Feitian Moutai double bottle at 3400 yuan, equating to 1700 yuan per bottle, while "overseas versions" are priced as low as 1490 yuan [2] - Despite some listings above 2000 yuan, there is a noticeable increase in bargaining space for consumers [2] Company Response - During a performance briefing on September 12, an investor questioned the company's ability to accept prices below 1800 yuan ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and inquired about potential adjustments to the previously announced 9% growth target [3] - The company's deputy general manager, Wang Li, stated that they are addressing market challenges through precise distribution strategies and maintaining a healthy channel inventory, expressing cautious optimism about future market conditions [3]

Group 1 - Guizhou Moutai's core product prices are experiencing unprecedented downward pressure, with the wholesale reference price for the 2025 53-degree 500ml Flying Moutai dropping to 1770 yuan, marking a decline of 10 yuan from the previous day and a cumulative drop of over 20% from the initial price of 2220 yuan [1][2] - The price decline has accelerated in recent months, with the wholesale price first falling below 2000 yuan on June 11, and subsequently dropping below 1900 yuan and 1800 yuan within a short period [1] - The market supply and demand dynamics are undergoing significant changes, posing serious challenges to Moutai's historically strong pricing system [1] Group 2 - The market performance of large-capacity products is also weak, with the wholesale price for the 53-degree 1L "Kilo Moutai" dropping 18.92% year-to-date, now at 3300 yuan, significantly below the official guide price of 3799 yuan [2] - There is a notable price inversion in the high-end liquor market, indicating a weakening overall demand for premium alcoholic beverages [2] Group 3 - Retail market price competition is intensifying, with some e-commerce platforms offering the 2025 Flying Moutai double bottle set at 3400 yuan, equating to a single bottle price of only 1700 yuan, and even lower prices for "overseas versions" [4] - Despite most mainstream e-commerce prices remaining above 2000 yuan, there is significant bargaining space, with actual transaction prices often lower than listed prices, reflecting strong dealer willingness to sell [4] - In response to ongoing price declines and market concerns, Guizhou Moutai's management stated that they are actively taking measures to address the situation, emphasizing a strategy of "scientific and precise distribution" and maintaining a healthy channel ecosystem [4]

Core Insights - The wholesale price of 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has reached a record low of 1770 RMB, down 10 RMB from the previous day, marking a cumulative decline of over 20% since the platform's launch [1][2] - The stock price of Kweichow Moutai (600519) has also been under pressure, closing at 1516 RMB per share on September 12, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.49% [1] - The retail prices on platforms like Pinduoduo and JD have shown aggressive pricing, with some listings as low as 1180 RMB per bottle, indicating a significant increase in bargaining space despite most e-commerce prices remaining above 2000 RMB [2] Price Trends - The price of 53-degree 1L "Kilo Moutai" has dropped to 3300 RMB, representing an 18.92% decline year-to-date, with a reduction of nearly 400 RMB from the initial price of 3700 RMB [1] - The decline in prices accelerated after the wholesale price first fell below 2000 RMB on June 11, with subsequent drops occurring rapidly over the following weeks [1] Market Response - During a recent earnings call, an investor questioned the company's ability to accept prices below 1800 RMB ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and inquired about the potential adjustment of the previously announced 9% growth target [2] - The company's deputy general manager, Wang Li, responded that they are actively managing channel ecosystems and maintaining healthy inventory levels, expressing cautious optimism about market conditions as the holiday season approaches [2]

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Moutai's 2025 53-degree 500ml flying Moutai has reached a record low, indicating a significant decline in market prices and potential challenges for the company and the industry [1][5]. Price Trends - As of September 14, 2025, the wholesale reference price for 500ml flying Moutai in loose bottles is 1770 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous day, marking the lowest price since its launch [1]. - The original box price remains at 1790 yuan, also a historical low, with both prices showing a cumulative decline of over 20% compared to their initial prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [1][5]. - The price of the 1L "kg Moutai" original box has dropped to 3300 yuan, reflecting an 18.92% decrease since the beginning of the year [5]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market for Guizhou Moutai shares is under pressure, with a slight decline in stock price to 1516 yuan per share as of September 12 [2]. - Retail prices are aggressive, with some platforms offering the 2025 flying Moutai at prices as low as 1700 yuan per bottle, while overseas versions are priced even lower [5]. Company Response - During a performance briefing on September 12, the company acknowledged the challenges posed by industry cycles and changing consumer trends, stating that it is actively managing channel ecosystems to mitigate these effects [6]. - The company remains cautiously optimistic about future sales, particularly with the upcoming holiday season, as there has been a noticeable improvement in terminal sales since late August [6].