Core Viewpoint - The price of 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has reached a record low, indicating a significant decline in the market for Moutai products, which is impacting the company's stock performance and raising concerns among investors [1][2]. Price Trends - On September 14, the wholesale reference price for 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai dropped to 1770 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, marking the lowest price since its launch [1] - The original box price remained at 1790 yuan, also a historical low, with both prices showing a cumulative decline of over 20% compared to their initial prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [1] - The wholesale price for the 1L "Kilo Moutai" is reported at 3300 yuan, down 18.92% year-to-date from the initial price of 3700 yuan, indicating a significant market adjustment [2] Stock Performance - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has been under pressure, with a slight decline of 0.49% on September 12, closing at 1516 yuan per share [2] - The stock has experienced a downward trend since the wholesale price first fell below 2000 yuan on June 11, with a series of price drops occurring over the following months [2] Retail Market Dynamics - Retail prices are showing aggressive trends, with some platforms listing the 2025 Feitian Moutai double bottle at 3400 yuan, equating to 1700 yuan per bottle, while "overseas versions" are priced as low as 1490 yuan [2] - Despite some listings above 2000 yuan, there is a noticeable increase in bargaining space for consumers [2] Company Response - During a performance briefing on September 12, an investor questioned the company's ability to accept prices below 1800 yuan ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and inquired about potential adjustments to the previously announced 9% growth target [3] - The company's deputy general manager, Wang Li, stated that they are addressing market challenges through precise distribution strategies and maintaining a healthy channel inventory, expressing cautious optimism about future market conditions [3]

Group 1 - Guizhou Moutai's core product prices are experiencing unprecedented downward pressure, with the wholesale reference price for the 2025 53-degree 500ml Flying Moutai dropping to 1770 yuan, marking a decline of 10 yuan from the previous day and a cumulative drop of over 20% from the initial price of 2220 yuan [1][2] - The price decline has accelerated in recent months, with the wholesale price first falling below 2000 yuan on June 11, and subsequently dropping below 1900 yuan and 1800 yuan within a short period [1] - The market supply and demand dynamics are undergoing significant changes, posing serious challenges to Moutai's historically strong pricing system [1] Group 2 - The market performance of large-capacity products is also weak, with the wholesale price for the 53-degree 1L "Kilo Moutai" dropping 18.92% year-to-date, now at 3300 yuan, significantly below the official guide price of 3799 yuan [2] - There is a notable price inversion in the high-end liquor market, indicating a weakening overall demand for premium alcoholic beverages [2] Group 3 - Retail market price competition is intensifying, with some e-commerce platforms offering the 2025 Flying Moutai double bottle set at 3400 yuan, equating to a single bottle price of only 1700 yuan, and even lower prices for "overseas versions" [4] - Despite most mainstream e-commerce prices remaining above 2000 yuan, there is significant bargaining space, with actual transaction prices often lower than listed prices, reflecting strong dealer willingness to sell [4] - In response to ongoing price declines and market concerns, Guizhou Moutai's management stated that they are actively taking measures to address the situation, emphasizing a strategy of "scientific and precise distribution" and maintaining a healthy channel ecosystem [4]

记者梳理发现，6月11日散瓶批发价首次跌破2000元关口后，下跌节奏明显加快：仅11天后的6月22日即跌破1900元；6月25日再破1800元；6月27日短暂回稳 至1800元，7月7日一度反弹至1880元，但8月29日再度失守1800元关口，并持续下探至当前1770元。 大容量产品同步走低。"今日酒价"数据显示，53度1L装"公斤茅台"原箱批发价报3300元，年内累计下跌18.92%，较年初上线价3700元缩水近400元。鉴于官 方指导价高达3799元，目前市场已出现明显倒挂。 零售端价格更为激进。拼多多平台已有店铺将2025年飞天茅台双瓶标价3400元，折合单瓶1700元；同款"海外版"标价低至1490元；京东平台"出口版"甚至报 出1180元/瓶的低价。不过，多数电商链接售价仍维持在2000元以上，但议价空间已明显放大。 在9月12日召开的业绩说明会上，有投资者直言"中秋前跌破1800元能否接受"，并追问公司会否下调此前公布的9%增长目标。贵州茅台代总经理王莉回应 称，行业周期与消费趋势变化叠加，公司正通过"科学精准投放、主动维护渠道生态"予以对冲，目前渠道库存保持良性，市场总体平稳。"随着双节备货启 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Moutai's 2025 53-degree 500ml flying Moutai has reached a record low, indicating a significant decline in market prices and potential challenges for the company and the industry [1][5]. Price Trends - As of September 14, 2025, the wholesale reference price for 500ml flying Moutai in loose bottles is 1770 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous day, marking the lowest price since its launch [1]. - The original box price remains at 1790 yuan, also a historical low, with both prices showing a cumulative decline of over 20% compared to their initial prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [1][5]. - The price of the 1L "kg Moutai" original box has dropped to 3300 yuan, reflecting an 18.92% decrease since the beginning of the year [5]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market for Guizhou Moutai shares is under pressure, with a slight decline in stock price to 1516 yuan per share as of September 12 [2]. - Retail prices are aggressive, with some platforms offering the 2025 flying Moutai at prices as low as 1700 yuan per bottle, while overseas versions are priced even lower [5]. Company Response - During a performance briefing on September 12, the company acknowledged the challenges posed by industry cycles and changing consumer trends, stating that it is actively managing channel ecosystems to mitigate these effects [6]. - The company remains cautiously optimistic about future sales, particularly with the upcoming holiday season, as there has been a noticeable improvement in terminal sales since late August [6].