Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a significant decline in retail prices for the top ten products, with an overall drop in market confidence [1] - The total retail price for a bundled sale of the top ten products is 8,982 yuan, marking a decrease of 58 yuan from the previous day, the lowest since November 18 of the previous year [1] Price Movements - Seven out of the ten major liquor products saw price declines, with notable drops including: - Wuliangye (普五八代) down 15 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Lang (青花郎) down 15 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573 (国窖1573) down 14 yuan per bottle - Premium Moutai (精品茅台) down 7 yuan per bottle - Feitian Moutai (飞天茅台) down 3 yuan per bottle - Ancient Liquor (古井贡古20) down 3 yuan per bottle - Crystal Jiananshun (水晶剑南春) down 2 yuan per bottle [1][3][4] - The only product to see a price increase was Qinghua Fen (青花汾20), which rose by 1 yuan per bottle [1] Market Sentiment - The overall market is characterized by a downward trend, reflecting a lack of confidence among consumers and investors [1] - The price adjustments across leading brands indicate a broader issue within the industry, as multiple core products are experiencing simultaneous price declines [1]

贵州茅台(600519) W 交易中 12-12 10:41:25 融 通 1418.39 额 25.5亿 股本 12.52亿 市盈 ™ 19.7 力得 盘口 换 0.14% 市值 17762亿 市净 6.91 6.40 0.45% ) 分时 五日 日K 明冬 (0) 叠加 设均线 MA5:1410.48↓ 10:1421.95↓ 20:1440.74↓↓ 前复权 1497.77 ← 1488.00 >> 47 1383.18 -> 1373.41 r would and the submit of the su 11-26 12-12 2025-09-26 10-23 11-10 成交额 总额:25.51亿 AMA5:42.22亿 AMA10:39.81亿 AMA20:40.74亿 × AMO KDJ MACD BBI RSI MA BIAS 今年以来，飞天茅台价格整体呈现下跌趋势。其中，2025年款53度500ml飞天茅台原箱相继失守2000元、1900元、1800元、1700元、1600元关口，12月内 更是一路跌至官方指导价附近，至12月11日报1510元/瓶。 在最新跌破指导价后，该系列产品原箱半年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand market price for Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1500 yuan, marking a significant decline for this high-end liquor, which was once considered "liquid gold" [1] Price Decline - The price for Feitian Moutai has fallen to around 1470 yuan, with selling prices around 1500 yuan, just below its official guide price of 1499 yuan [1] - This price drop represents a new low in recent years and indicates a substantial decrease in value for the product [1] Historical Price Comparison - According to data from the third-party price platform "Today Wine Price," the wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has decreased to 1500 yuan per bottle as of November 2025, down 15 yuan from the previous day, with a cumulative decline exceeding 30% [1] - At the beginning of 2025, the wholesale price was approximately 2200 yuan, indicating a nearly one-third reduction in value over the span of 11 months [1]

今年以来， 飞天 茅台价格整体呈现下跌趋势。 其中， 2025年款53度500ml飞天茅台原箱 相继失守2000元、1900元、1800元、1700元、1600元关口， 12月内更是一路跌至官方指 导价附近，至12月11日报1510元/瓶。 在最新跌破指导价后，该系列产品原箱半年内跌幅达28%，散瓶跌幅达25%。 从业绩表现来看，前三季度，贵州茅台实现营收1309.04亿元，同比增长6.32%；归母净利 润为646.27亿元，同比增长6.25%。不过，第三季度营收、归母净利润同比增速分别仅有 0.56%、0.48%，业绩增速创下近十年新低。 截至发稿，贵州茅台每股报1418.39元，近一个月跌幅超2.5%，最新市值约1.78万亿元。 【 导读 】 20 25年 款53度500ml 飞天茅台跌破指导价 中国基金报记者 忆山 12月12日，今日酒价披露的各大名酒批发参考价显示，2025年款53度500ml飞天茅台原箱 较前一日下跌15元，报1495元/瓶；散瓶较前一日下跌15元，报1485元/瓶。跌破该系列 1499元/瓶的官方指导价。 | 茅台飞天 | | | 2025年12月12日 | | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai is experiencing a significant decline, with the wholesale reference price for the 53-degree 500ml flying Moutai dropping below 1700 yuan for the first time, reflecting a broader adjustment in the liquor industry [1][3]. Price Trends - The price of flying Moutai has decreased over 30% compared to its peak of 3000 yuan in 2021, with a drop of over 500 yuan in less than a year [3]. - In 2025, the retail price of flying Moutai showed a clear downward trend, breaking key psychological price points of 2000 yuan, 1900 yuan, and 1800 yuan within a short period [3]. Demand Factors - A reduction in consumer demand is the primary reason for the price drop, with high-end dining scenarios seeing a 22% year-on-year decline in wine opening rates and a 30% cut in corporate banquet budgets [5]. - The introduction of stricter regulations on government dining, such as the prohibition of alcohol in work meals, has further impacted market sentiment despite government consumption accounting for less than 1% of total Moutai consumption [7]. Changing Consumer Demographics - The traditional consumer base of Moutai, primarily older generations, is aging, while younger consumers (Z generation) show a decreasing interest in high-alcohol spirits, favoring lower-alcohol and flavored beverages [9]. - The market share of low-alcohol and pre-mixed drinks has increased from 5% in 2020 to 22% in 2025, with only 13% of young consumers choosing Moutai [9]. Supply and Inventory Issues - There is a significant supply-demand imbalance, with an estimated 150 million bottles of Moutai in social inventory, 60% of which are unopened, leading to selling pressure [11]. - The average inventory turnover days for the industry have surged by 10% year-on-year, reaching a record high of 900 days, indicating ongoing inventory accumulation [11]. E-commerce Impact - The entry of e-commerce platforms has drastically changed the sales landscape for Moutai, with platforms like Pinduoduo offering prices as low as 1700 yuan per bottle, challenging traditional distribution channels [13]. - E-commerce platforms can afford to sell at lower prices due to their capital backing, while traditional distributors face significant inventory and cash flow pressures [13]. Company Strategies - Moutai is actively expanding its online sales channels, with direct sales revenue increasing from 5.94% in 2018 to 45.16% in the first quarter of 2025 [15]. - In response to the price decline, Moutai's management aims to maintain prices above 1800 yuan and is diversifying its product offerings to alleviate market pressure [17].

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1690 RMB, marking a new low since its listing and a decline of over 31% from its initial price [1][2]. Price Monitoring Summary - The price for 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai (loose) is reported at 1690 RMB, down 25 RMB from the previous day, and has fallen below the 1700 RMB mark for the first time [1][2]. - The original box price for the same product is now 1715 RMB, down 20 RMB from the previous day [1][2]. - The 2024 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai (original) is priced at 1780 RMB, down from 1800 RMB [2]. - The 2024 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai (loose) is now 1735 RMB, down from 1750 RMB [2]. - The 2023 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai (original) remains stable at 1950 RMB, while the loose version is also stable at 1850 RMB [2]. - The price for 1L 53-degree Moutai (original) is now 3080 RMB, down from 3125 RMB [2]. - Other products, such as the 43-degree Feitian and various special editions, have maintained their prices [2].

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Moutai's 2025 53-degree 500ml flying Moutai has reached a record low, indicating a significant decline in market prices and potential challenges for the company and the industry [1][5]. Price Trends - As of September 14, 2025, the wholesale reference price for 500ml flying Moutai in loose bottles is 1770 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous day, marking the lowest price since its launch [1]. - The original box price remains at 1790 yuan, also a historical low, with both prices showing a cumulative decline of over 20% compared to their initial prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [1][5]. - The price of the 1L "kg Moutai" original box has dropped to 3300 yuan, reflecting an 18.92% decrease since the beginning of the year [5]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market for Guizhou Moutai shares is under pressure, with a slight decline in stock price to 1516 yuan per share as of September 12 [2]. - Retail prices are aggressive, with some platforms offering the 2025 flying Moutai at prices as low as 1700 yuan per bottle, while overseas versions are priced even lower [5]. Company Response - During a performance briefing on September 12, the company acknowledged the challenges posed by industry cycles and changing consumer trends, stating that it is actively managing channel ecosystems to mitigate these effects [6]. - The company remains cautiously optimistic about future sales, particularly with the upcoming holiday season, as there has been a noticeable improvement in terminal sales since late August [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market for Moutai liquor is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices dropping sharply and consumers losing interest in purchasing and reselling the product [1][10][12]. Group 1: Price Decline - The price of Feitian Moutai has fallen from 2500 to 1800, nearing the official price of 1499 [1]. - The current buyback price for Feitian is 1750, while retail is only 1900, making it unprofitable for sellers [3]. - Moutai 1935 is now priced lower than the official price, indicating a broader decline across the Moutai product line [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The scarcity that once drove up prices has dissipated, with Moutai now readily available for purchase, leading to a chaotic market [12]. - Consumers who previously viewed Moutai as a status symbol are now treating it as a regular consumer product, reducing the incentive to hoard [14]. - The absence of scalpers and the decline in interest in Moutai have led to a significant shift in consumer behavior, with many opting to invest in experiences rather than liquor [14]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The decline of Moutai is affecting the entire high-end liquor market, potentially allowing competitors like Wuliangye and Fenjiu to gain market share [14]. - The market for old liquor is not yet developed, leaving buyback merchants struggling to adapt [14]. - There is uncertainty regarding potential price controls from the company, as inventory continues to accumulate without sales [14].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped, indicating a downward trend in the high-end liquor market, with potential implications for other brands like Wuliangye [2][6][15]. Price Trends - On June 25, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Feitian Moutai was reported at 1830 RMB per bottle, down 85 RMB from the previous day; the price for the 24-year version was 1890 RMB, down 60 RMB [2]. - The price of 43-degree Feitian Moutai and other products has also seen a decline, with kilogram Moutai dropping nearly 5% over two days [3]. - The prices for various Moutai products have consistently decreased, with the 25-year bottle previously selling for 3800 RMB now at 2230 RMB, marking a decline of over 41% [8]. Market Reactions - E-commerce prices have also fallen, with some platforms listing 25-year Feitian Moutai at 1800 RMB per bottle [10]. - Many second-hand gift recovery businesses have paused Moutai purchases due to the significant price drop, with recovery prices now between 1700-1800 RMB [10]. Impact on Competitors - The decline in Moutai prices is expected to exert pressure on other high-end liquor brands, particularly Wuliangye, leading to potential price competition and demand shifts [15][16]. - Analysts suggest that Moutai's price drop could trigger panic selling among distributors, further affecting the sales outlook for Wuliangye and similar brands [16]. Company Actions - Moutai Group's General Manager Wang Li has been actively visiting major e-commerce platforms to stabilize online prices and maintain distributor confidence [17]. - Recent actions by Wang Li may aim to leverage partnerships for expanding Moutai's market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia [18].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of Feitian Moutai have significantly declined, with various vintages experiencing substantial drops, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics for high-end liquor [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of June 22, 2023, the wholesale price of 25-year Feitian Moutai (original box) is reported at 1935 yuan per bottle, down 10 yuan from the previous day, while the price for loose bottles is 1870 yuan, down 30 yuan [1][2]. - The 24-year Feitian Moutai (original box) has seen a drastic drop to 1450 yuan, down 510 yuan, and the loose bottle price is now 1900 yuan, down 30 yuan [1][2]. - The 23-year Feitian Moutai (original box) is priced at 2100 yuan, down 50 yuan, and the loose bottle price is 2030 yuan, also down 50 yuan [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Following a historic drop below the psychological price of 2000 yuan per bottle for 25-year Feitian Moutai, the market appears to be in a downward trend, with multiple vintages experiencing price drops [3]. - The price of the Zodiac Snake edition, which was 3800 yuan at the beginning of the year, has fallen to 2230 yuan, marking a decline of over 41% from its peak [3]. - The newly released Shengle Feitian is now priced at 2300 yuan, down from 3400 yuan, reflecting a decrease of over 32% [3]. E-commerce Impact - On e-commerce platforms, the retail price of Feitian Moutai has also dropped, with some listings showing prices as low as 1820 yuan per bottle [4]. - The price for a double bottle set of Feitian Moutai is reported at 3600 yuan, averaging 1800 yuan per bottle, with guarantees against counterfeit products [4]. Competitive Pressure - The decline in Feitian Moutai prices is expected to exert pressure on other premium liquor brands, particularly Wuliangye, which has also seen price reductions [4][7]. - Wuliangye's 52-degree version is now priced at 905 yuan per bottle, down from 950 yuan at the beginning of the year, indicating a 4.74% decrease [4]. - The ongoing price drop of Feitian Moutai may lead to panic selling in distribution channels, further impacting the sales expectations for other high-end liquor brands [7].