今日关注 1、本周全球市场大事不断：委内瑞拉局势备受关注，泽连斯基将与美方举行新一轮会谈，韩国总统李 在明访华；中国将于1月9日公布通胀数据，美国非农数据备受瞩目；2026年消费电子展（CES）来袭， 黄仁勋、苏姿丰将发表演讲；智谱、MiniMax、天数智芯等将在港股上市。 2、国新办1月5日将就长江经济带发展十年工作进展和成效举行新闻发布会。 宏观经济 1、今年元旦假期，全社会跨区域人员流动量近6亿人次；全国国内出游1.42亿人次，国内出游总花费 847.89亿元；共661.5万人次出入境，同比增长28.6%。 2、就美国强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇，我外交部发言人4日表示，中方呼吁美方立即释放马杜罗 总统和夫人，停止颠覆委内瑞拉政权，通过对话谈判解决问题。 4、21世纪经济报道：段永平再晒部分苹果持仓，该账号于2011年11月开始买入苹果股票，累计收益率 达1623.48%，目前收益金额约为3426万美元。段永平称，这是我管的一个账号上的苹果（股票），这 么多年几乎没怎么动过。 5、新年伊始，公募基金发行角逐一触即发。据Wind统计，目前已有71只新基金定档1月发行，仅首个 交易周就将有44只新基金扎堆 ...

Group 1 - The wholesale reference price for 2025 Feitian Moutai has decreased by 15 yuan, now priced at 1495 yuan per bottle for original boxes and 1485 yuan for loose bottles, significantly down from a peak of 3400 yuan per bottle [1] - Some e-commerce platforms are offering promotional prices as low as 1399 yuan per bottle, indicating a shift in consumer perception and demand for traditional products like liquor [3] - The younger generation's declining preference for traditional consumables such as liquor and cigarettes is identified as a core reason for the weakening demand for Moutai [3] Group 2 - The weak market prices have impacted the capital market, with Guizhou Moutai's stock price falling over 8% last year and nearly 5% year-to-date despite a 6 billion yuan share buyback [3] - At one point during the year, the stock price of Guizhou Moutai was surpassed by that of Han's Laser Technology [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of a limited edition Guizhou Moutai liquor priced at 11,000 yuan per bottle sold out quickly, indicating strong market demand despite a general downward trend in Moutai prices [1][5]. Product Launch - On December 8, Guizhou Moutai released a new product (Panama International Exposition Gold Medal 110th Anniversary) at a price of 11,000 yuan per 1.1L bottle, which sold out on the first day [1][3]. - The product will continue to be available for purchase on December 9 and 10 from 9 AM to 10 AM [2]. Price Trends - Moutai's overall pricing has been declining, with the 2025 Flying Moutai (53° 500ml) dropping from 2,255 yuan at the beginning of the year to 1,530 yuan as of December 8, a decrease of over 32% [6]. - Other recent products, such as the "Snake Moutai" and "Shengle Flying," have also experienced significant price drops, with the "Snake Moutai" falling 57.5% from its peak price of 3,800 yuan to 1,615 yuan [5]. Market Dynamics - The market for Moutai products has seen fluctuations, with some products experiencing rapid price increases followed by sharp declines [5][6]. - Retail prices on e-commerce platforms have dropped below official guidance, with some listings as low as 1,399 yuan per bottle [7][9]. - Moutai Group is actively working to stabilize market prices and has reached agreements with major e-commerce platforms to combat unfair competition [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the price of Moutai reflects a significant shift in market sentiment, driven by increased supply and changing consumer behavior, leading to a broader impact on the high-end liquor market [1][3][5] Group 1: Price Trends - On January 21, the wholesale reference price for Moutai was updated, showing a drop of 25 yuan for original boxes to 1665 yuan per bottle and a 5 yuan drop for loose bottles to 1650 yuan, continuing a recent trend of price declines [1] - Moutai's price drop is attributed to increased supply as the company released additional stock in November, easing previous supply constraints and allowing buyers more negotiating power [3] - The decline in original box Moutai prices is more pronounced than that of loose bottles, indicating a diminishing perception of its investment value [3][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The slowdown in sales velocity and reduced corporate purchasing orders have contributed to the supply-demand imbalance, with personal consumers becoming more cautious in their purchases [3] - Some distributors, facing inventory pressure from previous high prices, are now lowering prices to recover funds, creating a ripple effect of price reductions across the market [3][5] - The actions of influential traders clearing their Moutai holdings have amplified the price decline, leading to a loss of confidence among retail investors [5] Group 3: Consumer Impact - The price drop has benefited ordinary consumers, with reports of increased availability and lower prices for Moutai on e-commerce platforms, allowing consumers to purchase at reduced rates [5] - The shift in consumer behavior is correcting the previous market anomaly where buying was not aligned with actual consumption [5] Group 4: Collectible Market Changes - There are signs of differentiation in the collectible market, with older and commemorative Moutai maintaining stable prices while interest in new vintage Moutai has waned [7] - The official pricing from Moutai remains unchanged at 1499 yuan, creating a significant gap with the wholesale market, which may need to be corrected by market forces [7] Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - The fluctuations in Moutai prices are seen as a barometer for high-end consumer spending, raising questions about overall consumer capacity [9] - The evolving price landscape is prompting a reevaluation of Moutai's role in the market, as it transitions from a "hard currency" to a more nuanced asset [9]

Core Insights - The wholesale reference price of the 2025 Flying Moutai has dropped to 1770 RMB per bottle, marking a decline of over 20% from the previous price of 2220 RMB, reaching a new low since its market introduction [2] - The financial attributes of Moutai are diminishing, with annualized returns falling below 5%, prompting investors to seek more stable assets [2] - The decline in price is attributed to the lack of collectible appeal for the 2025 vintage, as collectors prefer earlier years, and aggressive promotions on e-commerce platforms have further pressured prices [2][3] Industry Trends - The impact of e-commerce and the decline in financial attributes has led to a resurgence in personal consumption of Moutai, with over 40% of consumption now occurring in self-drinking scenarios [3] - Moutai has increased market supply through targeted promotions, such as the "Mid-Autumn Family Feast Exclusive Package," which aims to reduce speculative trading and further diminish its financial attributes [3] - The price reduction has lowered the consumption threshold, allowing more consumers to experience Moutai at a lower cost, shifting consumption from business banquets to family gatherings and self-drinking [4] Market Implications - Moutai's price adjustments may encourage the entire industry to focus more on product quality and cost-effectiveness, promoting healthier industry development [4] - The adjustments could lead to increased brand concentration within the industry, favoring companies with core brand advantages, stable quality, and reasonable pricing structures during market corrections [4]

Core Insights - The wholesale price of 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has reached a record low of 1770 RMB, down 10 RMB from the previous day, marking a cumulative decline of over 20% since the platform's launch [1][2] - The stock price of Kweichow Moutai (600519) has also been under pressure, closing at 1516 RMB per share on September 12, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.49% [1] - The retail prices on platforms like Pinduoduo and JD have shown aggressive pricing, with some listings as low as 1180 RMB per bottle, indicating a significant increase in bargaining space despite most e-commerce prices remaining above 2000 RMB [2] Price Trends - The price of 53-degree 1L "Kilo Moutai" has dropped to 3300 RMB, representing an 18.92% decline year-to-date, with a reduction of nearly 400 RMB from the initial price of 3700 RMB [1] - The decline in prices accelerated after the wholesale price first fell below 2000 RMB on June 11, with subsequent drops occurring rapidly over the following weeks [1] Market Response - During a recent earnings call, an investor questioned the company's ability to accept prices below 1800 RMB ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and inquired about the potential adjustment of the previously announced 9% growth target [2] - The company's deputy general manager, Wang Li, responded that they are actively managing channel ecosystems and maintaining healthy inventory levels, expressing cautious optimism about market conditions as the holiday season approaches [2]