一、债市异象：当AA级比垃圾债更"贵" 华尔街最近上演了一出荒诞剧。那些顶着AA光环的科技巨头债券，收益率竟与A级的IBM平起平坐，甲骨 文的债券更是把同行甩开几条街。更讽刺的是，主营比特币挖矿的TeraWulf们，如今靠着AI概念就能轻松 发行70多亿美元投机级债券。这场景让我想起菜市场里有机白菜卖不过普通大白菜的怪象。 作为量化交易的忠实拥趸，我盯着这些数据看了整整三天。表面看是供需失衡——三个月近千亿美元债券 洪流把市场噎着了。但量化系统揭示的深层逻辑更值得玩味：当微软、亚马逊这些现金奶牛依然从容时， Meta发债利率已不得不大幅提高，而转型AI云的甲骨文债券收益率比同类高出50-100个基点。这分明是市 场在用脚投票，对"烧钱换AI"的模式投下不信任票。 二、共识的财富：牛市别当"惊弓之鸟" 这让我想起去年用量化系统捕捉到的一个规律。当时凌云光60天翻倍，但每次创新高后必调整。多数散户 会被震下车，就像受惊的麻雀，听见弓弦响就四散飞逃。但系统显示的机构库存数据始终活跃，最终股价 又涨了80%。 反观三六五网的悲剧，每次"低点"反弹都像回光返照。量化数据赤裸裸地显示：除了第一次反弹时有机构 身影，后续全 ...

Core Insights - The AI investment boom is driving global stock markets to historic highs, but it increasingly relies on complex debt financing, raising concerns about financial sustainability and potential market bubbles [1] Group 1: AI Debt Financing Trends - AI-focused large tech companies issued $75 billion in U.S. investment-grade bonds in September and October, more than double the average annual issuance of $32 billion from 2015 to 2024 [2] - Debt financing is becoming crucial in the current AI boom, with a notable increase in the issuance of high-yield bonds related to AI, indicating a rise in credit risk [12] - Private credit is playing an increasingly significant role in financing AI data centers, with estimates suggesting a near doubling of AI-related private credit loans by early 2025 [15] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - Oracle's stock surged by 54% in 2025, but the increase in credit default swaps indicates rising investor concerns about its debt levels [8] - The net debt-to-equity ratio of major tech companies is narrowing, suggesting a shift from cash-rich to leveraged positions, which could signal potential financial strain [6] - Asset-backed securities (ABS) are expected to support the growth of the AI industry, with the market for such securities projected to reach $115 billion by the end of next year, driven by data center construction [18]