Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that AI can empower almost all of Tencent's business lines, including gaming, advertising, fintech, cloud services, and e-commerce, and has raised its capital expenditure forecast for Tencent to 350 billion RMB [1][10]. Valuation and Market Position - Goldman Sachs reiterated a "buy" rating for Tencent and raised its target price from 701 HKD to 770 HKD, noting that despite a significant stock price increase of 51% this year, Tencent's valuation remains attractive compared to global peers [3][5]. - Tencent's current valuation corresponds to a 2026 expected non-IFRS P/E ratio of 19 times, which drops to 16 times when excluding its investment portfolio, and is lower than Meta (24 times) and Google (23 times) [7][9]. AI Empowerment and Breakthroughs - Tencent is viewed as one of the best-positioned companies in China's internet sector for AI applications, with its self-developed Hunyuan Image 3.0 model recently ranking first in the LMarena text-to-image model leaderboard [9]. - The daily active users (DAU) of Tencent's AI application "Yuanbao" grew by 12% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 [9]. Capital Expenditure and Cloud Business Outlook - Based on optimistic AI demand, Goldman Sachs raised its capital expenditure forecast for Tencent from 300 billion RMB to 350 billion RMB for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with annual expenditures projected at 100 billion, 117 billion, and 129 billion RMB respectively [10]. - The revenue growth forecast for Tencent's cloud business has been significantly increased, with expected growth rates of 11%, 25%, and 20% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10]. Core Business Growth - For the gaming business, revenue is expected to grow by 16% and 18% year-on-year in Q3 and for the full year of 2025, driven by strong performances from new games and established titles [13]. - The advertising business is projected to see a revenue growth rate of 19% for both Q3 and the full year of 2025, supported by AI-driven advertising technology upgrades [14]. - Tencent's operating profit margin is expected to expand by 212 basis points in Q3 2025, although the gap between profit growth and revenue growth may narrow due to increased costs related to AI [15].

高盛认为，AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务。当前腾讯2026年市盈率19倍（剔除投资为16倍），估 值低于Meta、谷歌。高盛上调腾讯资本开支预测至3500亿元人民币，并看好混元大模型在LMarena登顶、云业务领域的加速增长。 据追风交易台消息，在12日发布的报告中，高盛分析师Ronald Keung等人将腾讯的12个月目标价从701港元上调至770港元。今年迄今，腾讯股价上涨 51%，跑赢同期恒生科技指数44%的涨幅。 高盛在一份最新研究报告中重申了对腾讯控股的"买入"评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比并不 苛刻。 腾讯依然是中国市场最具确定性的人工智能应用受益者。 高盛认为，尽管投资者对地缘政治风险的担忧再起，但腾讯的基本面依然强劲。其估值水平、在多个人工智能应用领域的变现潜力以及稳定的股东回报 政策，共同构成了其核心投资逻辑。 该行预计，市场对腾讯即将于11月13日公布的第三季度业绩，将重点关注其AI应用与资本开支前景、基础及多模态大模型能力，以及游戏和广告等核心 业务的增长可见性。预计腾讯Q3营收同比增长13% ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reiterated a "buy" rating for Tencent Holdings and raised its target price, indicating that despite a significant stock price increase this year, its valuation remains reasonable compared to global peers. Tencent is viewed as a key beneficiary of AI applications in the Chinese market [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - Goldman Sachs analysts raised Tencent's 12-month target price from HKD 701 to HKD 770, noting a 51% increase in Tencent's stock price year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index's 44% rise [1]. - The current valuation corresponds to a projected non-IFRS P/E ratio of 19 times for 2026, and 16 times when excluding its investment portfolio. This is lower than global tech giants like Meta (24 times) and Google (23 times) [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance Expectations - For the upcoming Q3 earnings report on November 13, the market is expected to focus on AI applications, capital expenditure outlook, and growth visibility in core businesses like gaming and advertising. Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with earnings per share expected to increase by 18% [3][4]. - The report anticipates that Tencent's operating profit margin will expand by 212 basis points in Q3 2025, although the gap between profit growth and revenue growth may narrow due to rising costs associated with AI [10]. Group 3: AI and Business Growth - Tencent is recognized as one of the best-positioned companies in China's internet sector for AI applications, with AI expected to enhance nearly all business lines, including gaming, advertising, fintech, cloud services, and e-commerce [6]. - The company achieved a significant milestone with its self-developed Hunyuan Image 3.0 model, ranking first in a global benchmark for text-to-image models, outperforming leading competitors [6]. Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Cloud Business - Based on optimistic AI demand forecasts, Goldman Sachs raised its capital expenditure predictions for Tencent from RMB 300 billion to RMB 350 billion for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with annual expenditures projected at RMB 100 billion, RMB 117 billion, and RMB 129 billion respectively [7]. - The revenue growth forecast for Tencent's cloud business has been significantly increased, with expected growth rates of 11%, 25%, and 20% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]. Group 5: Core Business Performance - The gaming segment is expected to see revenue growth of 16% and 18% year-on-year for Q3 and the full year of 2025, driven by new game releases and the steady performance of established titles [10]. - The advertising segment is projected to grow by 19% in both Q3 and the full year of 2025, supported by AI-driven advertising technology improvements and new inventory releases [10].