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第四范式(06682.HK)点评:收入增速超预期 下游AI需求不断验证
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-13 19:25
Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 37% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching RMB 44.02 billion for Q1-Q3 2025, and a single-quarter revenue of RMB 17.76 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 31% year-on-year increase [1] - The company recorded its first quarterly profit due to cost optimization, despite a decline in gross margin to 36.8% from 37.7% in H1 2025, primarily driven by the high growth of the AI platform [1] - The company is committed to R&D investment, with R&D expenses amounting to RMB 14.89 billion for Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase, although the R&D expense ratio decreased by 8.9 percentage points [1] Customer and Market Expansion - The number of benchmark customers (top 500 global companies) increased to 103, with an average revenue contribution of RMB 25.49 million per customer, up 71% year-on-year [2] - The company has expanded its customer base across key industries such as energy, manufacturing, finance, and retail [2] - The launch of ModelHub XC and AI engine EngineX supports mainstream domestic computing power and various models, with plans to significantly increase the number of certified models in the coming year [2] Product Development and Future Outlook - The company introduced the Phancy business featuring AI smart glasses equipped with a 13-megapixel camera, with plans for future collaborations with celebrity personal brands [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, projecting revenues of RMB 68.52 billion, 88.19 billion, and 112.26 billion for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 29%, and 27% respectively [3] - Expected net profit for the same period is projected to be RMB 0.55 billion, 2.82 billion, and 5.68 billion, with significant growth anticipated [3]
第四范式(06682):收入增速超预期,下游AI需求不断验证
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-13 09:54
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth has exceeded expectations, achieving its first quarterly profit [7]. - The gross profit margin has declined due to the high growth of the "XianZhi" platform, which has a lower margin but benefits from high standardization for rapid market penetration [7]. - The company continues to invest in R&D, with an increase in efficiency, while the number of benchmark clients and average revenue per user (ARPU) has consistently improved [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 4,204 million RMB - 2024: 5,261 million RMB - 2025E: 6,852 million RMB - 2026E: 8,819 million RMB - 2027E: 11,226 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 36.38% in 2023, 25.13% in 2024, and around 30% for 2025 [6][8]. - The company is projected to turn profitable in 2025, with a net profit of 55 million RMB, followed by significant growth in subsequent years [6][8].