股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.17 2025-06-17 2025Q1 业绩超预期，Agent 业务高歌猛进带动公司进 入高速增长轨道 第四范式(6682) [Table_Industry] 计算机 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 证 券 研 股 票 研 究 究 报 告 [Table_CurPrice] 当前价格(港元)： 45.80 [Table_Market] 交易数据 52 周内股价区间（港元） 20.05-62.55 本报告导读： 宏观承压下，公司 25Q1 营收增速实现逆势高速增长，Agent 对公司业务加持已经凸 显，全年转盈趋势确定的背景下，公司在 2B+2C 双轮驱动下长期增长可期。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要 （百万人民币） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 3,087.63 | 4,206.95 | 5,260.65 | 6,883.82 | 8,862. ...

Core Insights - Fourth Paradigm (06682.HK) reported a total revenue of 1.077 billion yuan for Q1 of FY2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [2] - The company's gross profit reached 444 million yuan, also reflecting a 30.1% year-on-year growth, with a gross margin of 41.2% [2] - Following the positive earnings report, the stock opened 4% higher and surged over 8% during trading on May 16, reaching 42.9 HKD per share and a market capitalization of 21.1 billion HKD [2] Business Segment Performance - The "Prophet AI Platform," which constitutes 74.8% of total revenue, generated 805 million yuan in Q1, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 60.5% [5] - The SHIFT intelligent solutions segment reported revenue of 212 million yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year, with its revenue share decreasing to 19.7% due to strategic business expansion [5] - The AIGS service segment contributed 60 million yuan, accounting for 5.6% of total revenue [5] R&D and Future Plans - R&D expenses for Q1 amounted to 368 million yuan, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 34.2%, down 8 percentage points [5] - The company plans to establish Paradigm Group, with the original Fourth Paradigm business becoming a core subsidiary, while also entering new sectors like consumer electronics [6] - The focus remains on enhancing AI capabilities across various industries, with a commitment to not pivoting away from enterprise services [6][7] Market Position and Profitability Outlook - Fourth Paradigm's overall R&D and revenue scale is smaller compared to peers like SenseTime, but it has a larger profit margin potential [7] - Based on current trends, the company is projected to achieve breakeven or positive net profit for FY2025, potentially becoming the third domestic AI software company to report profitability [7] - The vision is to leverage accumulated experience in vertical world models to expand AI capabilities beyond enterprise software, aiming for a broader market reach [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated robust growth in 2024, with a significant reduction in net losses, driven by advancements in AI technology and strategic business focus [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.1% [1] - Gross profit reached 2.245 billion yuan, maintaining a gross margin of 42.7% [1] - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 269 million yuan, a substantial reduction of 70.4% year-on-year, with a net loss margin of 5.1% [1] - Adjusted net loss for the year was 292 million yuan, narrowing by 29.6% compared to 2023 [1] - R&D expenses amounted to 2.170 billion yuan, representing 41.2% of revenue [1] Business Segments - The "Xianzhi AI Platform" business generated revenue of 3.676 billion yuan, up 46.7% year-on-year [2] - The "SHIFT Intelligent Solutions" business saw revenue decline by 20.3% to 1.022 billion yuan due to a strategic focus shift towards the Xianzhi AI Platform [2] - The "Shishuo AIGS Service" business contributed 563 million yuan, providing efficient development tools and services based on generative AI [2] Industry Expansion - The company maintained its position as the leading machine learning platform in China for six consecutive years, with a customer base expansion of 16% to 161 benchmark users [3] - Average revenue per benchmark user was 19.1 million yuan, with a net revenue growth rate (NDER) of 110% [3] Corporate Restructuring - The company established "Paradigm Group," with its enterprise service business becoming a core subsidiary, and launched a new consumer electronics segment called "Phancy" [4] - Phancy aims to provide AI Agent-based integrated hardware and software solutions, enhancing user interaction and service connectivity [4] Focus on AI Agent - The company is prioritizing the development of AI Agent technology, which can automate various business processes for enterprise clients [5] - In 2024, the company deployed AI Agent solutions across over 10 industries, enhancing operational efficiency [5] Development of Edge AI - The company anticipates significant growth in edge AI, with the launch of the ModelHubAIoT solution expected to facilitate easy deployment of distilled models [6] - Collaborations with partners aim to integrate edge computing capabilities with AI models, enhancing the accessibility of AI technology in consumer electronics [6][7] AI All-in-One Machine Demand - The company has partnered with Huawei to launch the SageOne IA solution, addressing the growing demand for AI model deployment and ensuring data security [8] - The solution enhances performance and flexibility for enterprises, supporting various mainstream large models [8]

Core Viewpoints - The company's core business drives high-quality revenue growth, achieving revenue of RMB 5.261 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, with the "Prophet AI Platform" contributing RMB 3.676 billion, a significant growth of 46.7%, accounting for 69.9% of total revenue. Meanwhile, the net profit attributable to the parent company narrowed its loss to RMB -269 million, a substantial reduction of 70.4% [1][2] - The company has a high customer stickiness among industry-leading clients, with the number of benchmark clients increasing by 16% to 161, an average revenue contribution of RMB 19.1 million, and a net retention rate (NDER) of 110%. The company has launched an AI Agent collaborative operation solution in partnership with Zhiyuan Interconnect, integrating the AI Prophet platform with the AICOP platform [1][2] - The company upgraded its group structure and launched the "Phancy" brand to provide C-end AI capabilities in addition to its B-end business. The ModelHub AIoT solution supports the deployment of large models on local devices, offering low-latency and high-privacy edge AI services, collaborating with brands like Lenovo to enhance the deployment of Agents on the edge [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of RMB 5.261 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, with a gross profit of RMB 2.245 billion and a gross margin of 42.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company improved to RMB -269 million, a significant reduction of 70.4% [1][2] - The core business revenue and profit both grew rapidly, with the "Prophet AI Platform" achieving revenue of RMB 3.676 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, and accounting for 69.9% of total revenue. The company's R&D investment reached RMB 2.170 billion, with an R&D expense ratio of 41.2% [1][2] Business Segments - The core business structure remains coordinated across three major segments: the Prophet AI Platform, SHIFT Intelligent Solutions, and Shisuo AIGS Services. In 2024, the Prophet AI Platform generated revenue of RMB 3.676 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, while SHIFT Intelligent Solutions revenue decreased by 20.3% to RMB 1.022 billion due to resource focus on the AI platform strategy [2][3] - The SHIFT Intelligent Solutions provide intelligent solutions for various industries, further deepening industry applications and accelerating digital transformation. The Shisuo AIGS Services empower software development through generative AI technology, enhancing user experience and product capabilities [3][4] Customer Base and Market Position - The number of benchmark users reached 161 in 2024, a 16% increase year-on-year, with an average revenue contribution of RMB 19.1 million. The customer concentration risk has been effectively mitigated, with the largest single customer revenue share decreasing from 12.7% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2024 [4][5] - The company has helped over 10 industries develop and deploy enterprise-level AI Agents, with practical experience in various verticals such as financial credit risk control and water and electricity equipment operation [4][5] Strategic Developments - The company completed a group structure upgrade and officially rebranded as "Paradigm Group," with its enterprise-level AI business becoming the core B-end brand. The launch of the Phancy brand focuses on "AI Agent + World Model" technology, providing edge AI capabilities to both consumer and industrial sectors [5][6] - The ModelHub AIoT solution supports local deployment of distilled models, achieving low-latency and high-privacy edge AI services, and has collaborated with brands like Acer and Lenovo to upgrade traditional devices into AI terminals [5][6] Profit Forecast - As a leader in enterprise-level AI, the company has seen continuous revenue growth and narrowing net losses, with a clearer profit model. The number of benchmark clients and revenue are steadily increasing, with projections for 2025-2027 revenues of RMB 6.663 billion, RMB 8.347 billion, and RMB 10.413 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26.66%, 25.26%, and 24.77% respectively [5][6]

Core Insights - Fourth Paradigm (06682.HK) reported a total revenue of RMB 1.077 billion for Q1 FY2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 30.1% [2] - The gross profit reached RMB 444 million, also reflecting a 30.1% increase, with a gross margin of 41.2% [2] - The core business, the Prophet AI platform, generated revenue of RMB 805 million, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 60.5% [2] Business Expansion - The Prophet platform underwent a major upgrade, introducing an AI Agent full-process development platform, allowing enterprise clients to integrate over 150 mainstream large models [3] - The platform includes a comprehensive suite of AI applications covering various enterprise scenarios such as AIGC, intelligent office, digital employees, and more [3] - The AI Agent has been implemented in over 14 industries, including finance, aviation, automotive, healthcare, and retail [3] Revenue Breakdown - The SHIFT intelligent solutions business generated RMB 212 million, accounting for 19.7% of total revenue, despite a year-on-year decline of 14.9% [4] - The AIGS service revenue was RMB 60 million, representing 5.6% of total revenue, with enhancements in programming Agent capabilities [4] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on enhancing the core capabilities of the Prophet AI platform and the deployment of enterprise-level Agents, leading to a strategic resource reallocation [4] - The company has established a dual-core business structure, maintaining its enterprise services while launching a consumer electronics segment, Phancy, which focuses on integrated AI Agent solutions [6] - Phancy has released several user-level Agent solutions aimed at improving daily work efficiency for enterprise users [6]

第四范式正致力于以「Agent + 世界模型」的技术理念去赋能更多的产业。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据 IPO早知道消息， 第四范式（ 06682.HK） 于 5月15日发布 了 截至 2025年3月31日 的 2025财年第一季度核心业务进展报告。 报告显示， 第四范式第一季度总收入 10.77亿元 （人民币，下同） ，同比增长 30.1% ；毛利润 4.44亿元，同比增长30.1%，毛利率 则 为 41.2%。 第一季度， 第四范式标杆客户数为 59个，标杆客户平均收入为1167万元，同比增长31.3%。 具体来讲， 作为第四范式所有业务的内核，先知 AI平台 第一季度 营收 8.05亿元，同比增长 60.5% 。 第一季度 ，第四范式先知平台迎来全新升级，基于原有 AI模型开发工具链，进一步推出AI Agent全 流程开发平台。企业客户可通过先知平台上内置的大模型应用平台Model Hub，轻松集成150+主流 大模型，并利用内置的数十个Agent智能体框架，构建完整LLM Ops体系，覆盖AI Agent开发全生 命周期。先知AI平台配 ...

期间，得益于持续推进客户群体的多元化，公司标杆用户数达到59个。在拓展客户数量的同时，公司高 度关注客户高价值场景的深度挖掘，并进一步提高公司的产品黏性。本期间，公司标杆用户平均营收贡 献为人民币11.67百万元，同比增长31.3%。 基于AI agent+世界模型的核心理念，本期间，公司正在进行集团化及品牌升级。在范式集团成立之 际，现有的企业服务业务(4Paradigm)将成为范式集团的核心子业务。范式集团秉持通用人工智能(AGI) 的理想，通过「AIagent+世界模型」的技术路径，不断提升AIagent沟通能力，并丰富世界模型对各垂 直细分领域的认知，提升AI解决垂直领域的能力，进而推动AGI的实现。 与此同时，范式集团成立了全新的消费电子业务板块Phancy，定位是向市场提供基于AI agent的软硬件 一体解决方案，通过智能体模组在端侧提供AI agent能力。公司始终坚持开放的技术合作心态，致力于 帮助各类AI终端设备厂商轻松打造AI终端产品。未来，通过范式集团的端侧AI模组，公司希望能够赋 能各消费电子厂商，快速集成AI能力，以更低门槛、更低成本推出受到各自用户喜爱的AI终端产品。 格隆汇5月 ...

盈利目标清晰。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据 IPO早知道消息， 第四范式（ 06682.HK） 于 3月3 1 日 公布了 2024年度 业绩报告。 财报显示， 2 024 年第四范式 全年总收入 52.61亿元，同比增长25.1%；毛利润 22.45亿元，毛利 率为42.7% 。 值得一提的是， 2 024 年 全年 第四范式 归属母公司所有者的年度亏损较 2023年全年减亏6.40亿 元，同比 收窄 70.4% ，这也是第四范式自 2021年以来连续4 个 会计年度环比减亏 。 在 盈利目标 日渐 清晰 的同时，第四范式 2 024 年的研发投入为 21.70亿元，研发费用率41.2% ， 继续巩固自己的技术领先性。 2 024 年，第四范式 服务的标杆用户数为 161个，同比增长16%，标杆客户平均营收为 1 910万 元 ， 2024 年标杆用户的NDER（净收入增长率）为110%。 核心业务收入增长 46.7% " 生成式 AI+决策AI"双轮驱动 从业务构成来看， 2 024 年第四范式的核心业务 「先知 AI平台」营收 3 6.7 ...

企业的AI Agent化需要AI能力和流程能力的共同加持。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，第四范式日前已完成对致远互联的投资。 而在更早的2月下旬，双方宣布战略合作；3月15日，双方联合发布协同运营AI Agent。 "港股决策类AI第一股"第四范式和"科创板协同管理领域第一股"致远互联，两家上市公司如此紧密 的"资本捆绑+战略合作"并深度布局企业AI Agent，意欲为何？ 这里不妨补充一个背景，Manus AI于3月6日爆火，致远互联当日以涨停收盘。除致远互联外，当天 金蝶国际在港股上涨超20%、用友网络在A股同样上涨近10%。 时间再拉长一些，今年2月下旬，金蝶国际、用友网络、致远互联等均连续上涨多日。尤其是，前两 家企业当前的市值突破了500亿元，其中金蝶国际自今年年初以来（截至3月14日收盘，下同）已上 涨82.56%，用友网络自今年年初以来同样已上涨61.79%。 某种程度上而言，这些标的在二级市场的表现一方面证明了"AI+企业管理"的可塑性之强，另一方面 更是预示着AI Agent之于它们的想象空间之大。 放眼全球市场 ...

核心业务收入同比增长50.2%。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，第四范式于11月19日发布了截止2024年9月30日第三季度业务进展。 | 收入人民币 | 同比增长 | | --- | --- | | 32.2亿元 | 26.1% | 其中， 第四范式 的 核心业务先知AI平台业务显著增长，收入 同比增长 50.2% 至 21.71亿元 。 据 I DC报告数据显示，第四范式连续六年稳居中国机器学习平台市场份额第一 。 今年前三季度，第四范式营收32.18亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长26.1%；毛利13.50亿元，同 比增长12.5%。 今年前三季度，第四范式客户服务深度和用户粘性不断提升，继续深耕交通运输、能源电力、金融、 运营商等重点行业，期间企业总用户数224个，标杆用户群体平均营收贡献为1,487万元（标杆用 户：全球财富500强企业或上市公司）。 具体来讲， 第四范式 前三季度 行业大模型开发及管理平台「先知AI平台5.0」已实现算力层、平台 层、模型层、应用层等端到端的能力供给 。先知AI平台持续优化其AI Agent ...