Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the net profit estimates for Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) for 2025 and 2026 by 35.1% and 38.1% to RMB 2.464 billion and RMB 3.08 billion respectively, due to pressure on new car profitability [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's revenue was RMB 77.322 billion, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, with new car sales down 1.7% to 229,000 units and revenue from new cars down 4.7% to RMB 57.931 billion [2] - The gross profit margin for 1H25 was 5.4%, a decline of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intensified market competition and increased losses in new car gross profit [3] - Operating cash flow for 1H25 reached RMB 5.948 billion, a significant increase of 103.3% year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [3] Group 2: Business Segments - The after-sales service revenue increased by 4.4% year-on-year to RMB 11.445 billion, benefiting from an increase in service visits and higher average revenue per vehicle [2] - The second-hand car sales volume rose by 9.6% to 111,000 units, although revenue fell by 27.0% to RMB 6.02 billion due to government policies affecting older vehicles [2] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The customer base for luxury vehicles continues to expand, with active customers reaching 4.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in vehicle terminal prices and the upcoming launch of new generation products from German luxury brands [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese new energy vehicle market is experiencing a significant shift in 2025, with pure electric vehicles regaining market share while range-extended electric vehicles show signs of fatigue [2][4][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2024, range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles were the main growth drivers in the Chinese new energy vehicle market, with wholesale sales of plug-in hybrids reaching 3.91 million units, a year-on-year increase of 84.8%, and range-extended vehicles at 1.179 million units, up 70.9% [2][3]. - Pure electric vehicle wholesale sales in 2024 totaled 7.095 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 15.9%, leading to a market share drop to 58% [3]. 2025 Trends - In early 2025, the market structure began to shift significantly, with pure electric vehicle sales showing a notable recovery. January, February, and March saw year-on-year growth rates of 23.3%, 69.6%, and 35.2%, respectively [4]. - Conversely, range-extended vehicle growth slowed, with January showing a decline of 11.3%, and February and March growth rates of 7.4% and 26.0%, respectively [4]. - The share of pure electric vehicles in March 2025 rose to 62.8%, surpassing the 60% mark again [4]. Retail Market Insights - In the first quarter of 2025, pure electric vehicle retail sales grew by 45.2%, leading among all new energy vehicle types, while plug-in hybrids grew by 33.7%, and range-extended vehicles saw minimal growth of only 0.7% [4]. Market Structure Characteristics - The recovery of the pure electric market exhibits a "barbell" structure, driven by both low-end entry-level and high-end segments. The A00 class (micro) electric vehicles saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 87% in March, increasing their share to 19% [5]. - New energy vehicle brands, particularly in the high-end segment, contributed significantly to growth, with new force brands capturing a market share of 17.1%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Competitive Landscape - Despite lower absolute sales in the high-end segment compared to entry-level markets, the growth trend and brand image enhancement are significant. The average promotional discount for luxury electric vehicles reached 26.1% by March [6]. - The range-extended segment faces challenges, exemplified by the significant decline in sales for key players like Seres, which saw a 42.47% drop in the first quarter [6]. - The overall high growth in the new energy market in early 2025 is attributed to a shift in policy timing, with the stimulus window expected to be from February to December, contrasting with the previous year's concentrated efforts in the latter half [6].

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing significant growth, with a 20% increase in overall sales from 2019 to 2024, while BYD's sales surged by 9.2 times during the same period, highlighting the rapid rise of large private enterprises in the sector [1][2] - The shift in market demand from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) is a major trend, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) now accounting for over 40% of the new car market [2][3] - Japanese automakers are facing declining market shares, with their sales halving from a peak of 24% in 2020 to around 12% in 2024, indicating a significant competitive disadvantage [3][4] Market Dynamics - BYD has become the leading player in the Chinese automotive market, overtaking previously dominant state-owned and foreign joint ventures [2] - The competition in the EV market is intensifying, with price wars initiated by leading companies like BYD and Tesla affecting the entire new car market, including gasoline vehicles [2][3] - The entry of tech companies like Huawei into the automotive sector is reshaping the landscape, with Huawei's AITO brand gaining traction due to its smart features and brand influence [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Other private enterprises such as Geely and Chery have also seen substantial sales growth, with Geely's sales increasing by 70% and Chery's by 3.6 times [1] - The market share of hybrid vehicles (HV), traditionally strong for Japanese brands, remains low at around 3%, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards fully electric options [2][3] - The collaboration between Huawei and Shanghai Automotive Group marks a strategic move to enhance competitiveness in the NEV sector, as traditional state-owned enterprises struggle to adapt [4]