Q&A 上周市场有哪些重要事件对债市产生了影响？ 上周市场进入消息频发的一周，主要事件包括中美会谈、国内十五五规划建议 发布、金融街论坛以及一些基本面数据的公布。十五五规划更多涉及未来五年 的国计民生、经济改革和制度创新，对短期市场影响有限。中美会谈理论上利 好风险偏好，但相关消息已提前发酵，实际对债市波动贡献不大。最重要的事 件是金融街论坛上央行宣布重启国债买卖，当天债券市场利率大幅下行，投资 者普遍乐观交易。 央行重启国债买卖的背景和意义是什么？ 债市周度讨论会 20251103 摘要 央行重启国债买卖，旨在丰富政策工具箱，增强国债金融功能，并发挥 收益率曲线定价基准作用，或有调控收益率曲线形态和助力财政融资的 意图。此举短期对债市影响有限，需关注后续政策力度。 四季度基本面和供给环境利好利率走势，但宏观趋势不明朗。预计短期 内可能出现小幅走弱的数据，激发宽货币博弈情绪，为债市提供较好时 间窗口。2026 年展望短期略偏多长期偏空。 投资策略上，短端利率确定性相对更高，长端和超长端需把握交易机会。 10 年与 30 年超长端利差处于合理位置。中短端信用债在年底供给真空 期及需求抢配开门红阶段仍具配置机会。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Among overseas bank bonds, ordinary bank bonds have the largest outstanding volume, while AT1 and AT2 are subordinated bonds with higher yields. Subordinated bonds have had many credit risk events in history, reshaping the research framework and pricing for institutional investors. Ordinary bank bonds are mainly investment - grade, and their pricing is more affected by liquidity premium, while subordinated bonds are more affected by credit risk premium. In the future, considering the overall stable fundamentals of banks and the interest - rate cut cycle, opportunities for yield decline in medium - and short - duration ordinary bonds and subordinated bonds can be focused on. Chinese banks' overseas bonds, mainly US - dollar ordinary bonds issued by large banks, have higher coupons than domestic bonds, presenting allocation opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Bank Bond Overview - **Types and Attributes**: Overseas bank bonds mainly include ordinary bank bonds, TLAC non - capital instruments, AT2, and AT1 bonds. Ordinary bank bonds have the best repayment order and are used to supplement general operating funds. TLAC non - capital instruments help global system - important banks meet TLAC regulatory indicators. AT1 and AT2 are used to supplement a bank's primary and secondary capital respectively, with subordinated, redemption, write - down, or conversion clauses [12]. - **Outstanding Amount**: As of October 20, the outstanding amounts of ordinary bank bonds, TLAC non - capital instruments, AT2, and AT1 bonds were 6.4, 2.0, 0.8, and 0.5 trillion US dollars respectively [2]. - **Ordinary Bank Bonds**: They are denominated mainly in euros, with the largest outstanding volume. European countries dominate in terms of issuance, and Germany has the largest outstanding amount. From 2010 - 2025, the overall issuance scale declined, and the financing situation shifted from net repayment to mild net financing. The issuance term is mainly 1 - 7 years, and the rated bonds are mainly of A grade. The lower the rating, the higher the interest rate [18][22][30]. - **AT1 Bonds**: They are denominated mainly in US dollars, with the largest outstanding amounts in the UK and the US. The market expanded significantly after 2014 and has developed steadily since then. The net financing amount has changed with the market rhythm. The issuance coupon is affected by the interest - rate environment and credit risk events. Bonds with ratings are mainly of Ba1 grade, and the lower the rating, the higher the coupon [35][40][52]. - **AT2 Bonds**: They are mainly issued by France, the US, etc., and are denominated mainly in US dollars, euros, and Australian dollars. The issuance scale fluctuated greatly from 2010 - 2025, mainly affected by the interest - rate cycle. The net financing amount has been mainly positive but showed a downward trend. Rated bonds are mainly of Baa1 grade, and the lower the rating, the higher the interest rate [54][59][66]. - **Chinese Banks' Overseas Bonds**: As of October 21, the outstanding amount was 7.6 billion US dollars, mainly ordinary bank bonds. US dollars are the main currency, and most of the rated bonds have high credit ratings. The financing rhythm is significantly affected by cost, and the net financing amount has been negative since 2022 [69][70]. 3.2 Review and Enlightenment of Credit Risks of Overseas Subordinated Bank Bonds - **Deutsche Bank's Interest Payment Risk in 2016**: The huge loss in 2015 led to concerns about its AT1 bond interest payment ability, causing a sharp decline in the European bank AT1 market. After Deutsche Bank announced a bond repurchase, market sentiment eased [83]. - **Deutsche Bank's Non - Redemption Cases in 2020 and 2025**: In 2020, it was due to the lower reset coupon compared to the refinancing cost; in 2025, it was to reduce exchange losses. Non - redemption may send a negative signal to the market [90][91]. - **UBS's Full Write - down of Credit Suisse's AT1 Bonds in 2023**: This event violated the traditional "debt before equity" repayment order, causing market concerns. It highlighted the importance of the "write - down clause" in AT1 bonds, regulatory powers, and regulatory differences [101][103][111]. - **Banco Popular Español's Case in 2017**: The bank's financial situation deteriorated rapidly. After being recognized as "failing or likely to fail" by the ECB, its AT1 bonds were first converted into shares and then fully written down, revealing the risk of regulatory judgment [112][115][118]. - **Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's Case in 2017**: After multiple self - rescue failures, the Italian government intervened. As a condition for state aid, the bank's AT1 bonds were forcibly converted into common shares, indicating that subordinated creditors will bear losses first in case of government assistance [119][123][124]. - **Bank of Jinzhou's Interest Payment Cancellation in 2019**: The direct reason was that the capital adequacy ratio did not meet regulatory requirements. After the cancellation, the bond price dropped, and it affected investors' confidence in other small and medium - sized Chinese banks' AT1 bonds [125][129]. 3.3 Pricing of Overseas Bank Bonds - **Pricing Drivers**: The pricing of overseas bank bonds is driven by the benchmark interest rate and credit spread. The spread of bank subordinated bonds is mainly affected by risk events, while that of ordinary bank bonds is dominated by liquidity premium [134]. - **Spread Composition**: The bank bond spread consists of liquidity premium and credit risk premium. Subordinated bonds such as AT1 and AT2 have a variety premium compared to ordinary bank bonds, which is an important part of the credit risk premium. Internationally, the spread between AT1, AT2, and ordinary bank bonds is larger, and AT1 is often classified as high - yield bonds [134].