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《金融》日报-20250902
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 08:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports mainly present the daily data of various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, without explicitly stating a unified core view. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differences**: The latest values and changes of F, IH, IC, and IM futures price differences are provided, along with their historical 1 - year and full - history quantiles [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures, such as the spreads between the next month and the current month, the far month and the current month, etc., are presented, including their changes and quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios of various futures varieties, such as the ratio of IC to IF, IC to IH, etc., are given, along with their changes and quantiles [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: The implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures are provided, including their latest values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, such as the spreads between the current quarter and the next quarter, are presented, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads between different bond futures, such as the spread between TS and TF, are given, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, as well as spot prices, are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of precious metals, such as the difference between gold TD and Shanghai gold futures, is presented, along with its changes and historical 1 - year quantiles [4]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios of gold to silver, interest rates of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventories and positions of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes, Shanghai export container freight rates, etc., are presented, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping futures and their basis are given, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. 3.5 Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, such as the eurozone's CPI, US manufacturing PMI, etc., are presented, along with their release times and data sources [7]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in China, such as manganese ore inventory, port inventory, etc., are provided, along with their release times and data sources [7].
广发期货日评-20250826
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 06:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held this week. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares have risen significantly in the past month and are expected to enter a high - level shock to wait for a directional choice [2]. - The short - term 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate around 1.78% - 1.8% may be the resistance level for the stage interest rate to rise, and the T2512 contract has support around 107.4 - 107.6. Considering the continuous strengthening of the stock market, the bond market may fluctuate [2]. - The market digests the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the US dollar index stops falling and rebounds, and precious metals fall slightly. Gold is oscillating strongly, and silver long positions above $38 continue to be held [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is weakly oscillating, and the short position of the 10 - contract continues to be held. The apparent demand for steel stops falling and rebounds, and the 10 - contract hot - rolled coil and rebar can be tried to go long. The shipment of iron ore falls from a high level, and it fluctuates with the steel price [2]. - Due to the sudden mine accident and partial coal mine shutdowns, the coking coal futures are expected to rebound. The seventh round of price increases for mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the eighth round has been launched [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, and the center of copper prices moves up. The supply - side speculation of alumina eases, and the inventory of aluminum increases. The supply - demand structure of aluminum still faces pressure [2]. - The supply of urea increases year - on - year, and the demand has no seasonal improvement signs. The PX center is strong, and the PTA drive is strong in the short term. The supply - demand of short - fiber is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term drive [2]. - The spot price of live pigs fluctuates weakly, and the corn supply increases, and the price continues to be weak. The export of palm oil slows down, but it still runs strongly. The overseas sugar supply outlook is loose [2]. - The macro - emotion of glass drives the far - month contract to strengthen, but the industry negative feedback continues. The macro - emotion of rubber is positive, and the price rises [2]. - The spot price of polysilicon is slightly adjusted upwards, and the lithium carbonate market is less sensitive to news [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - **Market Situation**: A - shares have risen significantly in the past month, and are expected to enter a high - level shock to wait for a directional choice [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy put options to protect long positions, or partially stop profit on previous positions [2]. Treasury Bond - **Market Situation**: The bond market sentiment recovers, and the bond futures close higher across the board. The short - term 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate around 1.78% - 1.8% may be the resistance level for the stage interest rate to rise, and the T2512 contract has support around 107.4 - 107.6. Considering the continuous strengthening of the stock market, the bond market may fluctuate [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Keep a short - term wait - and - see attitude [2]. Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: The market digests the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the US dollar index stops falling and rebounds, and precious metals fall slightly. Gold oscillates strongly, and silver long positions above $38 continue to be held [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy gold options; sell AU2512C792 and buy AU2512C776 to build a bullish spread strategy [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Situation**: Weakly oscillating [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold the short position of the 10 - contract [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The apparent demand for steel stops falling and rebounds. The shipment of iron ore falls from a high level, and the port inventory and clearance decrease slightly. It fluctuates with the steel price [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try to go long on the 10 - contract hot - rolled coil and rebar. Go long on the iron ore 01 contract at low prices [2]. Coking Coal, Coke - **Market Situation**: Due to the sudden mine accident and partial coal mine shutdowns, the coking coal futures are expected to rebound. The seventh round of price increases for mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the eighth round has been launched [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on the coking coal 01 and coke 01 contracts at low prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Market Situation**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, and the center of copper prices moves up. The supply - side speculation of alumina eases, and the inventory of aluminum increases. The supply - demand structure of aluminum still faces pressure [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The copper main contract refers to 78,500 - 80,500. The alumina main contract refers to 3,000 - 3,300. The aluminum main contract refers to 20,000 - 21,000, and pay attention to the pressure level at 21,000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Market Situation**: The supply of urea increases year - on - year, and the demand has no seasonal improvement signs. The PX center is strong, and the PTA drive is strong in the short term. The supply - demand of short - fiber is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term drive [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For urea, use a band - trading idea. For PX, be cautiously bullish in the short term. For PTA, be cautiously bullish and conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Market Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuates weakly, and the corn supply increases, and the price continues to be weak. The export of palm oil slows down, but it still runs strongly. The overseas sugar supply outlook is loose [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity. For corn, it runs weakly. For palm oil, it may hit 9,800 - 10,000 at the end of the month. For sugar, conduct a bearish rebound trade [2]. Special Commodities - **Market Situation**: The macro - emotion of glass drives the far - month contract to strengthen, but the industry negative feedback continues. The macro - emotion of rubber is positive, and the price rises [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For glass, stop the short - position profit. For rubber, go short at a high position if the raw material supply is smooth [2]. New Energy - **Market Situation**: The spot price of polysilicon is slightly adjusted upwards, and the lithium carbonate market is less sensitive to news [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [2].
《金融》日报-20250718
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views There are no explicit core views presented in the reports. The reports mainly offer data on various futures and spot markets, including price changes, spreads, and inventory levels. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Price Spreads**: Presents current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time percentiles for various stock index futures spreads such as IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IF term - current spread is 19.60% with a change of - 22.69, and the 1 - year percentile is 13.51% [1]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Details include the differences between different contract months like next month - current month, far month - current month, etc. For instance, the next month - current month spread of IF is - 7.80 with a change of 5.60 and a 1 - year percentile of 34.40% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Provides ratios such as the CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their changes and percentiles. For example, the IC/IF ratio is 1.4901 with a change of - 0.0225 and a 1 - year percentile of 63.10% [1]. **Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Basis and IRR**: Lists the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) for different treasury bond futures like TS, TF, T, and TL. For example, the TS basis is 1.6630 with a change of - 0.0146 and an IRR percentile of 27.60% [2]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Gives the spreads between different contract quarters. For instance, the current quarter - next quarter spread of TS is - 0.0620 with a change of 0.0160 and a percentile of 13.50% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents spreads between different treasury bond futures varieties such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. For example, the TS - TF spread is - 3.6050 with a change of - 0.0290 and a percentile of 6.60% [2]. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Shows domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 776.28 yuan/gram on July 17, down 0.05% from the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: Provides the basis between different gold and silver contracts, including their current values, changes, and historical percentiles. For example, the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 5.36 with a change of - 0.90 and a 1 - year percentile of 1.60% [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Details inventory levels and changes in inventory for domestic and foreign exchanges, as well as ETF positions. For example, the SHFE gold inventory is 28872 kg, unchanged from the previous day [4]. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Spot Quotes**: Displays spot quotes for container shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies. For example, the MAERSK quote is 3066 dollars/FEU, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Presents settlement price indexes for different routes such as the SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route), along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) settled at 2421.94, up 7.26% from July 7 [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Provides futures prices and basis for container shipping contracts. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1485.7, up 1.52% from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract is 989.8, up 18.34% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes information on container shipping capacity supply, foreign trade - related indicators, and overseas economic data. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply is 3271.40 million TEU, unchanged from the previous day [6]. **Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report** - **Overseas Data**: Lists economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, such as the eurozone May seasonally - adjusted current account and the US July one - year inflation rate expectation [8]. - **Domestic Data**: Covers various domestic economic indicators for different industries including agriculture, black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities. For example, for the polyester industry, Asian/China PX operating rate and downstream polyester product inventory are reported [8].