奈飞（NFLX） 更新报告 25 年广告收入翻倍，内容本土化构筑护城河 | | | 唐伊莲 852-25321539 alice.tang@firstshanghai.com.hk 李倩 852-25321539 chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要数据 | 行业 | 流媒体 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股价 | 1,176.78 美元 | | | 目标价 | 1,397.00 美元 | | | | （+18.7%） | | | 股票代码 | NFLX US | | | 总股数 | 4.25 亿股 | | | 市值 | 5,057 亿美元 | | | 52 周高/低 | 1,341 美元/587 美元 | | | 每股账面值 | 58.72 美元 | | | 主要股东 | Vanguard Group | 8.93% | | | BlackRock | 7.88% | | | FMR | 4.79% | | | Capital Group | 4.62% | 盈利摘要 股价表现 来源：公司资料，第一上海预测 来源：彭博 第一上海证券有限公司 www.myst ...

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4823 期 2025 年 7 月 25 日 星期五 研究观点 【公司研究】 奈飞（NFLX，买入）：25 年广告收入翻倍，内容本土化构筑护城河 金沙中国（1928，买入）：5 和 6 月份的表现在提升中；预计未来 EBITDA 将能达 27 亿美元 【行业评论】 数字货币周报 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 奈飞 | NFLX | 买入 买入 1397.00 | 1359.00 | 3% | 27.100 | 26.100 | 4% | 33.100 | 32.100 | 3% | | 金沙中国 | 1928 | 买入 买入 25.31 | 20.77 | 22 ...

作 者丨 Long Player 编译 | 华尔街大事件 奈飞 (NASDAQ: NFLX )又交出了一份亮眼的财报，营收和利润双双超预期。二季度营收 110.8 亿美 元，同比增长 15.9%，比分析师预期高 2282 万美元；摊薄后每股收益 7.19 美元，同比增长 47.3%，比预期高 0.10 美元。营业利润率继续保持强劲，同比提升 6.9 个百分点，达到 34.1%。公 司还产生了 22.7 亿美元自由现金流，虽比去年同期的 12.1 亿美元大幅增长，但环比有所下降。 继上一季度重申业绩指引后，公司上调了全年预期：全年营收预计在 448 亿 - 452 亿美元之间（此前 预期为 435 亿 - 445 亿美元）；营业利润率预计为 29.5%，比之前的 29% 略有提升。 奈飞二季度表现依旧出色。公司持续推出丰富多样的内容，不仅推动二季度业绩亮眼，还支撑了业绩指 引的上调。 看看奈飞当前和计划推出的内容阵容，投资者会发现公司越来越注重平衡英语内容和全球各地的本土内 容。这种多元化的内容策略显然见效了 —— 营收和每股收益的强劲增长就是证明。 二季度也不例外。比如，二季度上线的《我们保守的秘密》（丹麦剧 ...

Steady -- not accelerating -- growth rates make valuation more of an issue for Netflix stock.Netflix (NFLX -4.63%) stock dropped 4.5% in early trading as of 9:40 a.m. ET, despite beating on earnings last night.Heading into the report, analysts forecast Netflix would earn $7.06 per share on just over $11 billion in revenue. In fact, Netflix earned $7.19 per share on just under $11.1 billion, thus beating on both top and bottom lines. Netflix Q2 earningsSales increased 16% year over year in Q2, and Netflix d ...

Streaming giant Netflix NASDAQ: NFLX released Q2 2025 results on July 17, beating expectations on both sales and earnings for the seventh consecutive quarter. Despite this, markets weren’t jumping for joy. Shares traded down around 1% after hours Thursday, giving back around half of the gain the stock achieved during the regular session, and are down nearly 5% in early trading on Friday.  So, why didn’t these results move shares materially higher? Additionally, what can investors take away from the results ...

Here's our initial take on Netflix's (NFLX 2.15%) fiscal 2025 second-quarter financial report.Key MetricsMetricQ2 2024Q2 2025Changevs. ExpectationsRevenue$9.56 billion$11.08 billion16%BeatEPS$4.88$7.1947%BeatFree cash flow$1.21 billion$2.27 billion87%n/aShares outstanding439.7 million434.9 million-1%n/aNetflix Turns In a Solid PerformanceWall Street had high expectations for Netflix heading into its second-quarter report, especially after a significant earnings beat in the first quarter. Analysts were expec ...

Core Insights - Netflix is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 17, forecasting a revenue increase of 15.4% to $11.035 billion, driven by price changes, membership growth, and advertising revenue [1][6][20] - The consensus revenue estimate is $11.05 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 15.63% [2] - Projected earnings per share are $7.03, slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.06, which has increased by 0.1% over the past month [2] Revenue Growth Expectations - Total revenues for Q2 2025 are anticipated to be $11.035 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth [2][14] - Specific regional revenue estimates include $1.31 billion for Asia-Pacific (25.1% growth), $1.36 billion for Latin America (13% growth), $3.46 billion for EMEA (15.3% growth), and $4.91 billion for UCAN (14.4% growth) [14][15] Earnings Performance - In the last quarter, Netflix achieved an earnings surprise of 16.17%, consistently beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past four quarters with an average surprise of 6.94% [4][6] - Current earnings estimates for Q2 2025 show a slight upward trend, with the latest estimate at $7.07 per share [4] Content and Subscriber Growth - The release of high-profile content, including the finale of "Squid Game," is expected to drive significant subscriber growth and engagement [9][10] - Netflix's strategic investments in content and platform enhancements are likely to attract new subscribers while retaining existing ones [11][12] Advertising Revenue Expansion - The advertising business is experiencing accelerated growth, with the Netflix Ads Suite fully rolled out across all 12 ad-supported countries by June [10] - Management anticipates doubling advertising revenues in 2025, supported by the successful expansion of its advertising platform [10][20] Competitive Positioning - Despite increasing competition from companies like Apple, Amazon, and Disney, Netflix's strong content slate and platform innovations position it favorably in the market [13][20] - The company's stock has outperformed peers, gaining 41.1% year-to-date compared to the sector average [16] Valuation Metrics - Netflix is currently trading at 44.38X forward 12-month earnings, above its five-year median of 33.79X, indicating a premium valuation compared to the industry average of 31.1X [17][20] Investment Outlook - The combination of strong first-quarter performance, compelling content for Q2, and multiple growth drivers suggests that Netflix is well-positioned for continued success [21][23] - Investors are encouraged to consider Netflix as a strong investment opportunity ahead of the upcoming earnings report [20][23]

Core Insights - Netflix's advertising business is gaining traction with the launch of its in-house ad-tech platform, the Netflix Ads Suite, which offers personalized ads and a low ad load of four minutes per hour, outperforming competitors like Hulu [1][9] - The ad-supported plan has attracted 94 million users, particularly popular among the 18 to 34 age group, with expectations for ad revenues to double by fiscal 2025 and exceed $9 billion by fiscal 2030 [3][9] Advertising Strategy - Netflix has partnered with platforms like Google's DV360 and The Trade Desk to simplify the ad-buying process, and a new deal with Yahoo DSP will allow programmatic ad purchases across all 12 ad-supported countries [2][9] - The Netflix Ads Suite's availability in the U.S., Canada, EMEA, and other ad-supported regions is a significant growth driver [1] Competitive Landscape - Netflix faces strong competition in the advertising sector from Amazon and Disney, both of which have established ad businesses with substantial user bases [4][5][6] - Amazon's ad business grew 19% year-over-year to $13.9 billion, leveraging its large audience and advanced targeting tools [5] - Disney boasts 157 million active users globally, with significant engagement on its ad-supported platforms [6] Financial Performance - Netflix shares have increased by 43.6% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector's growth of 6.5% and the Zacks Broadcast Radio and Television industry's rise of 29.5% [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Netflix's 2025 revenues is $44.47 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.01%, with earnings expected to increase by 27.69% from the previous year [13]

Core Insights - Netflix is expanding its live streaming content, now reaching over 94 million global monthly active users, with a focus on sports, comedy, and special events [1] - Upcoming live events include the Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano rematch on July 11 and two NFL Christmas Day matchups [1] - Netflix will also stream the 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards on March 1, 2026, and its own "Netflix Tudum 2025: The Live Event" [2] Advertising and Audience Engagement - The company introduced the Netflix Ads Suite, incorporating first-party data from LiveRamp or Netflix, and expanding programmatic ad buying options [3] - A new ad format will utilize generative AI to match ads with Netflix shows [3] - Netflix has a strong reach among Gen Z and millennials, with more viewers aged 18-34 than any other U.S. broadcast or cable network, and U.S. ad-supported tier consumers watching an average of 41 hours per month [4]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth maintains an Overweight rating on Netflix Inc with a price target of $1,150, highlighting the company's strong performance and defensive subscription nature amidst macroeconomic uncertainties [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Netflix shares have increased by 30% from post-tariff lows, outperforming the S&P 500's 15% rise, driven by its leadership in streaming and subscription model [1]. - Anmuth projects advertising revenue (excluding subscription) to reach $3.0 billion in 2025, more than doubling from $1.4 billion in 2024 [4]. - The analyst anticipates average growth rates of +13% for foreign-exchange-neutral revenue, +22% for operating income, +24% for GAAP EPS, and +30% for free cash flow in 2025 and 2026 [8]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Content - Heading into Netflix's Upfronts, updates on Ad Tier MAUs and expansion of the Netflix Ads Suite are expected, along with a focus on key Live/Sports content [2]. - Netflix is projected to have over 60 million Ad Tier subscribers by the end of 2025, correlating with an estimated 140 million+ MAUs [3]. - The content slate for 2025 includes significant releases such as "Nonnas," "Sirens," and "Squid Game" Season 3, indicating a strong lineup [4]. Group 3: Market Position and Employment - Netflix produces original content in over 50 countries, with more than 50% of its content produced internationally, while also maintaining significant contributions to the U.S. economy [6]. - The company employs over 9,000 full-time staff in the U.S. and occupies substantial corporate and studio space, reflecting its strong operational footprint [6]. - Anmuth's bullish thesis includes expectations of healthy double-digit revenue growth and continued operating margin expansion, alongside increased investments in content and ads [7].