In today's trade, shares of IRFC, IDFC First Bank, Alembic Pharma, IRFCGovernment will sell up to 4% stake in VoltasVoltas is expecting air conditioner prices to go up by 5-15% this year owing to increase in copper prices and the rupee weakening against the dollar, Managing Director Mukundan Menon said. The country's leading air-conditioning manufacturer, having a market share of around 18% in the domestic market, expects domestic AC sales to grow by 15-20% in 2026 over last year which turned out to be bad ...

Core Viewpoint - Yantai City has introduced measures to boost consumer spending and stabilize production during the Spring Festival period, focusing on trade-in incentives for vehicles and appliances [1] Group 1: Vehicle Trade-in Incentives - Consumers who trade in old vehicles for new ones can receive subsidies of up to 20,000 yuan for scrapping and 15,000 yuan for replacement [1] - For vehicle replacement, the maximum subsidy is 15,000 yuan or 13,000 yuan depending on the specific policy [1] Group 2: Appliance and Electronics Subsidies - Consumers purchasing energy-efficient appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, water heaters, and computers can receive subsidies up to 1,500 yuan [1] - For digital and smart products like smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, and smart glasses priced under 6,000 yuan, consumers can receive a maximum subsidy of 500 yuan [1] Group 3: Implementation Timeline - The measures are effective from the date of issuance until February 28, 2026 [1]

Group 1: Domestic Air Conditioning Strategy - The company aims to optimize sales rhythm, conducting offline promotions and leveraging online bestsellers to drive traffic growth [1] - Product development will focus on user needs and innovation, enhancing R&D and market alignment to support product launches [1] - A diversified channel strategy will be implemented, promoting a collaborative ecosystem and transitioning marketing focus from "goods to customers" to "goods to users" [1] Group 2: Overseas Air Conditioning Strategy - The company plans to enhance its product matrix and accelerate platform development to meet customer demands, focusing on Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe [1] - A full-cycle customer service system will be established to strengthen partnerships with key regional clients [1] - The strategy includes expanding into emerging markets in Africa and maintaining brand priority in core markets [1] Group 3: Domestic Refrigerator Strategy - The company is advancing a "marketing transformation, direct-to-user" strategy, emphasizing high-quality customer and user operations [3] - Differentiated innovation will drive product structure upgrades, with a focus on launching multiple fresh products that highlight quality and preservation [3] - The company will enhance channel operations, solidify existing channel capabilities, and accelerate retail transformation in key stores [3] Group 4: Overseas Refrigerator Strategy - The company will reshape product platforms in mainstream markets, focusing on differentiated strategies for homogeneous products [4] - There will be an emphasis on high-end, mid-range, and low-end products to match diverse consumer demands [4] - The strategy includes accelerating market expansion in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to continuously increase market share [4]

Core Points - The Jiangsu province will launch a "trade-in" subsidy program for consumer goods starting January 1, 2026, aimed at encouraging residents to upgrade their vehicles, home appliances, and digital products [4][18] Group 1: Vehicle Subsidies - The program offers a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan for trading in old vehicles for new ones, applicable to both new energy and fuel vehicles [4][7] - For scrapping old gasoline vehicles registered before June 30, 2013, or diesel vehicles registered before June 30, 2015, a subsidy of 12% of the new vehicle price is available, capped at 20,000 yuan [7] - For trading in old vehicles, a subsidy of 8% of the new vehicle price is available for new energy vehicles, with a maximum of 15,000 yuan, and 6% for fuel vehicles with a maximum of 13,000 yuan [10] Group 2: Home Appliance Subsidies - A subsidy of 15% of the final price, capped at 1,500 yuan, is available for upgrading home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, water heaters, and computers, provided they meet energy efficiency standards [14] Group 3: Digital Product Subsidies - For digital products like smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, and smart glasses, a subsidy of 15% of the final price is available, with a maximum of 500 yuan per item, applicable to items priced under 6,000 yuan [17] Group 4: Participation Requirements - To qualify for vehicle subsidies, both the old and new vehicles must be registered under the same individual's name, and the new vehicle's invoice and registration must be issued in Jiangsu [17] - For home appliances and digital products, the applicant, payer, and recipient must be the same person, and their information must match [17] Group 5: Implementation and Information Access - The "Jiangsu Consumption Trade-in Platform" will provide comprehensive support for the subsidy application process, and participating merchants will be listed by local business authorities [17][18] - Residents are encouraged to stay updated on specific implementation details and participating merchants through local official notifications [17]

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China Industrials Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **China Industrials** sector, focusing on the implications of the **2026 Consumption Subsidy Scheme** announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) [1] Key Points Consumption Subsidy Scheme - The **2026 subsidy program** has a budget of **US$8.9 billion**, significantly lower than the **Rmb300 billion (approx. US$41.8 billion)** allocated for 2025 [1] - The expected positive impact on corporate earnings for 2026 is anticipated to be less than in 2025 due to the reduced budget [1] - Major sectors covered include **home appliances, auto, digital consumer products, and upgrading equipment** [1] Specific Subsidy Details - **Digital and smart products** will be included in the 2026 scheme, offering a **15% rebate** on items like smartphones and smartwatches, capped at **Rmb 500** each [2] - For home appliances, a **15% subsidy** is available for six categories, capped at **Rmb 1,500** per item [2] - In the auto sector, scrapping old cars can yield subsidies of **12%** of the purchase price for new energy vehicles (NEVs), capped at **Rmb 20,000** [2] Equipment Upgrade Program - The equipment-upgrade program will expand to include sectors such as **elevators in old residential blocks, elderly-care facilities, and fire-and-rescue systems** [3] Company Insights Preferred Companies - **Shengyi Tech**, **Han's CNC**, **Shennan Circuit**, and **KB Laminate** are highlighted for their sales exposure and AI-related business opportunities [1] - **Hengli Hydraulic** is favored in the automation space due to potential re-rating linked to humanoid robots [1] Company Valuations and Risks - **Han's CNC**: Target price of **Rmb 140** based on a **50x 2026E P/E**, with a **98% earnings CAGR** expected for 2025-26E [7] - Risks include weaker AI PCB equipment demand and rising component costs [8] - **Hengli Hydraulic**: Target price of **Rmb 135** based on a **52x 2026E P/E** [9] - Risks include weaker demand for components and lower-than-expected gross profit margins [10] - **Kingboard Laminates Holdings**: Target price of **HK$20.5** based on a **19-20x P/E** for 2026E, reflecting potential earnings upgrades [11] - Risks include slower customer certification and macroeconomic conditions [12] - **Shengyi Technology**: Target price of **Rmb 83** based on a **44x 2026E P/E**, with a strong growth outlook due to AI-CCL revenue [13] - Risks include lower-than-expected demand for AI-CCL orders and subdued consumption [14] - **Shennan Circuit**: Target price of **Rmb 281** based on a **48x forward 2026E P/E**, with significant exposure to AI and auto segments [16] - Risks include slower-than-expected demand in the AI server market and higher laminate cost inflation [17] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the **2026 subsidy program** in shaping the earnings outlook for various companies within the industrial sector [1][2][3] - The anticipated lower budget for the subsidy program may lead to a more cautious investment environment compared to 2025 [1] - Companies with strong positions in AI and digital products are expected to benefit more from the subsidy scheme [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 "Two New" policy aims to enhance equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, addressing public concerns and promoting high-quality development through targeted subsidies and support measures [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The 2026 "Two New" policy expands support to include the installation of elevators in old residential areas, equipment updates in elderly care institutions, and updates for commercial facilities like shopping centers and supermarkets [2][4]. - The policy continues to support the replacement of old vehicles and household appliances, including cars, washing machines, and refrigerators, while also expanding subsidies for digital and smart products [2][3]. Group 2: Subsidy Standards - The subsidy standards for equipment updates have been optimized, with differentiated subsidies based on the number of floors for old elevators, potentially easing financial burdens for high-rise residential buildings [4][5]. - For automotive subsidies, the policy shifts from fixed amounts to percentage-based subsidies, with support for new energy vehicles at 12% of the vehicle price (up to 20,000 yuan) and for fuel vehicles at 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) [5][6]. Group 3: Implementation Mechanism - The policy introduces an optimized project application and review process, lowering investment thresholds and increasing support for small and medium-sized enterprises [7]. - A unified subsidy standard will be implemented nationwide for vehicle replacements and household appliances, addressing regional disparities in subsidy amounts [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is launching a substantial subsidy program for 2026, aimed at promoting the replacement and upgrading of consumer goods, including vehicles and home appliances, with a total of 625 billion yuan allocated for the first phase of subsidies [1]. Group 1: Automotive Subsidies - Two main directions for automotive subsidies: scrapping old vehicles for new ones or trading in old vehicles for new purchases [2]. - For scrapping, buyers of new energy vehicles can receive a subsidy of 12% of the vehicle price, up to 20,000 yuan, while buyers of fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less can receive a subsidy of 10%, up to 15,000 yuan [2]. - For trade-ins, new energy vehicles receive an 8% subsidy, capped at 15,000 yuan, and fuel vehicles receive a 6% subsidy, capped at 13,000 yuan [2]. Group 2: Home Appliance and Digital Product Subsidies - The subsidy program focuses on six major home appliances: refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, with a 15% subsidy on the purchase price, capped at 1,500 yuan per item [3]. - Digital products such as smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, and smart glasses are eligible for a 15% subsidy, with a maximum of 500 yuan per item, provided the price does not exceed 6,000 yuan [3]. - The program emphasizes high energy efficiency, green technology, and smart products, aiming to encourage consumer upgrades and industry advancements [3]. Group 3: Broader Policy Implications - The policy also extends to the upgrading of facilities in old residential areas, nursing homes, and fire rescue equipment, with lowered investment thresholds for project applications, allowing more small and medium-sized enterprises to benefit from the subsidies [3]. - The overall message encourages consumers to take advantage of the subsidies for significant purchases and upgrades, focusing on energy-efficient and smart products [3].

Company Insights - Johnson Controls reported its best performance since 2019, highlighting its strong position in the coolant and air conditioning market, particularly for data centers [1] - The positive results from Johnson Controls are indicative of broader trends in the industry, as companies like Eaton also showed strong performance despite initial market skepticism [2] - The ongoing data center buildout is seen as a significant growth opportunity, with Johnson Controls positioned as a major beneficiary [3] Industry Trends - The data center sector is recognized as one of the most significant construction projects of the current era, driving demand for related services and products [3] - Companies that may appear mundane, like Johnson Controls, can deliver exceptional results, suggesting that there are hidden opportunities within traditional sectors [2]

Core Insights - LG Electronics Inc. successfully launched a $1.3 billion initial public offering (IPO) for its Indian unit, which was five times subscribed, indicating strong demand from institutional and wealthy investors [1][2]. Investor Demand - Subscriptions from wealthy individuals reached 13 times the allocated shares, while qualified institutional investors subscribed at 2.7 times, retail investors at 2.5 times, and employees at 5.3 times [2]. IPO Details - The IPO involves the sale of 71.3 million shares priced between 1,080 rupees and 1,140 rupees each, potentially valuing LG Electronics India Ltd. at up to 774 billion rupees ($8.7 billion), making it a contender for India's largest listed home-appliance maker [3]. Market Context - The IPO reflects a strong and sustainable consumption story in India, as noted by LG's chief sales officer, highlighting 28 years of trust from Indian consumers and partners [4]. - This offering marks the fourth billion-dollar IPO in India for the year, contributing to the country becoming the world's fourth-largest IPO market in 2025, with proceeds exceeding $13 billion [4]. Investor Participation - LG attracted significant interest from sovereign wealth funds from Abu Dhabi, Norway, and Singapore, as well as global asset managers like BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity International Ltd. [5]. Valuation Insights - The IPO is priced at approximately 35 times earnings for the year ended March 31, which is considered reasonable compared to peers trading at higher valuations, reflecting the company's strong market position and brand equity [6]. Product Leadership - LG Electronics India holds leading market positions in various product categories, including washing machines, refrigerators, televisions, air conditioners, and microwave ovens, based on offline market share [7]. Underwriters - The share sale was managed by Axis Bank Ltd. and the Indian units of major financial institutions including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., and Citigroup Inc. [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **durable goods consumption** in **China**, focusing on the **home appliances** and **automobile** sectors, highlighting a shift from growth to decline in sales due to various economic factors [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Durable Goods Sales Growth**: - China's durable goods sales growth has significantly slowed, with home appliance retail sales expected to drop to **-20.0% year-on-year** in Q4 2025 from an anticipated **14.2%** in Q3 2025 [1][3]. - The automobile sector is projected to experience a more modest slowdown, with sales revenue growth impacted by the reinstatement of purchase tax on electric vehicles starting in 2026 [1]. - **Impact of Trade-in Program**: - The home appliance sector benefited from a government trade-in program, which provided **15-20% discounts** and a subsidy cap of **RMB2,000** per item. This program has led to a surge in sales growth, but the momentum is now reversing [2][3]. - Home appliance sales growth surged from **3.4%** in August 2024 to **33.6%** in Q4 2024, but slowed to **14.3%** in August 2025, indicating a significant decline [2]. - **Production Plans as Leading Indicators**: - Factory production plans from China Industry Online (CIO) indicate a downward trend in production for major appliances, with air conditioner production plans showing a decline of **-11.9% year-on-year** in August 2025 [5][12]. - The overall planned production volume for home appliances has decreased from **10.1%** in July to **-7.5%** in August, reflecting a broader slowdown in consumer demand [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Historical Context**: - Previous trade-in programs have shown a payback effect, where sales growth sharply declined after the program ended. For instance, after the 2009-2011 program, home appliance sales growth fell from **12.3%** in 2009 to **7.2%** in 2012 [13]. - **Market Share of Home Appliances**: - Home appliances account for **7%** of merchandise sales and **16%** of durable goods sales among larger retail enterprises in China, making it a significant sector within the consumer goods market [4]. - **Automobile Sector Dynamics**: - The automobile sector, which accounts for **26%** of China's merchandise sales, has also seen a rebound in sales volume but is beginning to show signs of slowing growth due to the payback effect of the trade-in program [21][22]. - The growth in passenger car sales is expected to slow to **0.0% year-on-year** in Q4 2025, with value terms declining from **0.8%** in H1 to an estimated **-2.0%** in Q4 [22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the challenges facing the durable goods sector in China, particularly in home appliances and automobiles, as well as the implications of government subsidy programs and historical trends.