今日（12月29日），科济药业宣布已向国家药监局提交通用型BCMA CAR-T产品CT0596的两项新药临床试验申请，拟分别启动针对复发/难治性多发性骨 髓瘤及原发性浆细胞白血病的Ib/Ⅱ期注册临床研究。 这是科济药业在通用型CAR-T细胞治疗研发进程中的又一重要进展。 01 "功能性治愈"突围之路 多发性骨髓瘤（MM）是血液系统第二大常见恶性肿瘤，随着人口老龄化，其发病率持续上升。尽管近年来蛋白酶体抑制剂、免疫调节剂以及抗CD38单 抗等靶向药物的陆续问世，显著延长了初治患者的生存期，推动了MM治疗格局的迭代，但该疾病仍被认为无法根治。绝大多数患者会经历多次复发，且 随着治疗线数后移，缓解期逐渐缩短，治疗选择日益匮乏。 当前，多发性骨髓瘤新药研发的核心目标是推动疾病达到更深层次的缓解，实现深度且持久的疾病缓解，对改善患者长期生存具有重要意义。CAR-T疗 法，因其有望实现更深、更持久的缓解，甚至推动疾病走向"功能性治愈"，被视为更具突破潜力的武器。与传统药物相比，CAR-T不仅能够高效清除肿瘤 细胞，还可能重建长期免疫记忆。 然而，现有自体CAR-T疗法仍存在明显瓶颈，例如，个性化制备周期长达数周甚至更久， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 21.55 [7][5] Core Insights - The company has shown a significant reduction in losses, with a net loss of USD 266 million in the first three quarters of 2025, down from USD 1.25 billion in Q3 2024 [1] - CARVYKTI's sales are on a strong upward trend, with Q3 sales reaching USD 524 million, representing a 19% quarter-over-quarter increase and an 83% year-over-year increase [2][3] - The company aims to achieve USD 3 billion in revenue by 2035, with various business segments expected to grow at different rates [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, CARVYKTI generated sales of USD 1.332 billion, a 112% year-over-year increase, with Q3 sales alone at USD 524 million [1] - The company forecasts revenues of USD 973 million, USD 806 million, and USD 933 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of USD 11 million, USD 66 million, and USD 355 million [5][10] Business Growth and Strategy - The company is expanding its treatment indications with ongoing Phase III clinical trials for CARTITUDE-5 and CARTITUDE-6 [3] - The production capacity is expected to reach 10,000 cases annually by the end of 2025, with new facilities in Belgium and the U.S. coming online [3] Valuation and Market Position - The estimated market value of the company is HKD 470.93 billion, with a breakdown of HKD 259.49 billion for ongoing operations and HKD 211.45 billion for the equity in its joint venture [13][15] - The report highlights a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 4.14x for 2026, reflecting a 20% discount to comparable companies [13]

Core Viewpoint - After a significant decline in stock price following a failed acquisition, Legend Biotech's stock showed signs of recovery due to strong sales data for its CAR-T product, CARVYKTI, but faced renewed pressure from competitive products and changing valuation logic [1][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Sales Data - Legend Biotech's stock price fell from a high of $58.90 in August last year to a low of $29.40 in April this year, marking a significant decline [1]. - On April 15, Johnson & Johnson reported that CARVYKTI achieved global sales of $369 million in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 135%, exceeding market expectations of $324 million [1]. - Following the positive sales report, Legend Biotech's stock rose by 5.08% on the same day, contributing to a 3.01% increase in stock price for April [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has shifted with Gilead's Kite company entering the market with Anito-cel, which has shown promising clinical data, including a 97% overall response rate in its trials [4][5]. - Anito-cel's data suggests it may offer comparable efficacy to CARVYKTI while potentially having a better safety profile, raising concerns about CARVYKTI's market share and pricing power [4][7]. - On May 14, following the release of Anito-cel's data, Legend Biotech's stock dropped by 10.55%, marking its largest single-day decline of the year [7]. Group 3: Financial Outlook and Production Capacity - Legend Biotech reported a net loss of $177 million for 2024, a significant reduction from a loss of $518.3 million the previous year, with CARVYKTI projected to generate $963 million in sales, a 92.7% increase [8][9]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans to reach an annual capacity of 10,000 doses by the end of 2025 and 20,000 doses by the end of 2027 [9]. - Despite the positive sales outlook, the emergence of competitive products like Anito-cel poses challenges to Legend Biotech's growth strategy, raising questions about its reliance on CARVYKTI as a sole revenue driver [9][11]. Group 4: Product Pipeline and R&D - Legend Biotech has developed a diverse product pipeline, including multiple CAR-T therapies and other innovative treatments, but currently lacks a second product that can generate cash flow [11]. - The company has 11 products in development, indicating a potential delay in bringing additional revenue-generating products to market [11]. - The reliance on a single product for growth may place Legend Biotech at a disadvantage in the long-term market dynamics [11].