流动性宽松或为当前债市最大的确定性 ——2025 年 10 月流动性展望 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 10 月 8 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3流动性宽松或为当前债市最大的确定性 ——2025 年 10 月流动性展望 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 8 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 8 月超储率较 7 月下降 0.1pct 至 1.1%，处于偏低水平，也低于我们预期的 1.4%。政府存款并未如预期下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has announced a change in the operation of the 14-day reverse repurchase agreement, shifting to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding system, which is expected to enhance liquidity management in the banking system [4][5]. Summary by Sections Event - On September 19, 2025, the People's Bank of China announced that the 14-day reverse repurchase operation would now be conducted with fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, along with multiple price level bidding [4]. Commentary - The primary policy interest rate in China is the 7-day Open Market Operation (OMO) rate, which is crucial for signaling monetary policy. The fixed rate bidding is deemed most appropriate. Compared to variable rate bidding, the new system allows for better allocation of scarce central bank funds to those truly in need. Traders seeking 14-day OMO funds can bid at higher rates, increasing their chances of full allocation. This change is expected to stabilize the short end of the yield curve and maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [5][6]. - It is anticipated that the 14-day OMO operations will occur more frequently than in previous years, not limited to just before major holidays. The first operation under the new bidding method is likely to take place on September 22 [5]. Interest Rate Corridor - The 7-day and 14-day OMOs are seen as new partners in maintaining liquidity, while the interest rate corridor serves as an old tool to stabilize short-term rate fluctuations. The upper limit of the corridor is the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) rate, which varies with the 7-day OMO rate, maintaining a 100 basis point spread. The lower limit is the Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER), currently at 0.35% [7]. - Narrowing the interest rate corridor could reduce fluctuations in the DR (Deposit Rate) and enhance the effectiveness of interest rate control. Two methods could achieve this: lowering the SLF rate in line with the 7-day OMO rate or reducing the spread above the OMO rate [7][8]. Market Activity - Concerns about whether lowering the SLF rate would lead to increased trading with the central bank and reduce market activity are deemed unfounded. The SLF operation volumes from May to August 2025 were significantly lower than the interbank repo transaction volumes. The current spread between the 7-day SLF and DR007 rates is at a moderate level, suggesting that a reduction in the SLF rate would not lead to excessive reliance on it by market participants [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the 14D OMO reverse - repurchase tender method can better stabilize the short - end fluctuations of the yield curve and maintain the abundance of bank system liquidity [2]. - It is expected that 14D OMO operations will be more frequent than before, and the first 14D OMO operation after the change of the tender method may be carried out on September 22, 2025 [2]. - Attention should be paid to real - time DR and CD interest rates rather than privately inquired winning bid rates of 14D OMO, as the latter contains limited monetary policy information and is often lagging [3]. - Moderately narrowing the interest rate corridor can reduce DR fluctuations and improve the efficiency of interest rate regulation, and currently, there are basic conditions to narrow the interest rate corridor by moderately reducing the SLF interest rate [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - On September 19, 2025, the People's Bank of China announced that, starting from that day, the 14 - day reverse - repurchase operation in the open market would be adjusted to fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multi - price winning bids [1]. Comment - The 7D OMO interest rate is the main policy interest rate in China. The new combination of 7D OMO (fixed - interest, quantity tender) and 14D OMO (fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, multi - price winning bids) can better stabilize the short - end fluctuations of the yield curve and maintain the abundance of bank system liquidity [2]. - It is expected that 14D OMO operations will be more frequent than in previous years, not limited to before the Spring Festival and National Day. The first 14D OMO operation after the change of the tender method may be carried out on September 22, 2025. In the future, some investors may be interested in privately inquiring about the winning bid rate of 14D OMO, but these rates contain limited monetary policy information, and attention should be paid to real - time DR and CD interest rates [2][3]. - 7D and 14D OMO are the "new partners" for maintaining liquidity abundance, and the interest rate corridor is the "old assistant" for suppressing short - end fluctuations. Moderately narrowing the interest rate corridor can reduce DR fluctuations and improve the efficiency of interest rate regulation. There are two ways to narrow the interest rate corridor: the natural compression when the 7D OMO interest rate and SLF decline together, and the reduction of the spread of the SLF interest rate above the OMO interest rate [3]. - Currently, there are basic conditions to narrow the interest rate corridor by moderately reducing the SLF interest rate. From May to August 2025, the SLF operation volume was much smaller than the inter - bank pledged repurchase trading volume. The minimum value and 10% quantile of the spread between the 7D SLF and DR007 from early 2024 to September 19, 2025, were at a moderate and relatively large level [4].

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央行公告称，6月11日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1640亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。 Wind数据显示，当日2149亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼509亿元。 资金面方面，央行公开市场周二再度转为净回笼，不过无碍银行间市场资金宽松格局，存款类机构隔夜质 押式回购加权利率进一步下行来到1.35%关口附近，并创2024年12月以来新低;非银机构质押信用债融入隔 夜价格在1.48%-1.50%附近，较昨日变动不大。交易员表示，市场流动性偏暖且整体可控，在央行逆回购精 准投放与财政支出共同作用下，资金利率有望维持低位，年中流动性料延续均衡偏松。 6月5日央行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标1号公告，并在官网开设央行各项工具操作情况栏目，更新了5 月各项工具流动性投放情况。市场分析普遍认为，此次操作不仅是年内规模性流动性投放的关键举措，更 以"月初公告+新设专栏披露"的形式，展现央行稳定资金面、强化政策透明度的双重决心。 央行公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，6月6日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月(91天)。值得注意的是，该公告为公开市场买 ...