利率走廊收窄的债市含义 20251118 理想中的短期利率走廊应具备以下特征：一是能够有效控制市场基准利率如 DR007 等波动区间，使其围绕政策目标稳定运行；二是具有灵活且透明的调控 机制，以便及时应对市场变化；三是涵盖广泛，包括商业银行及非银机构，以 确保全面覆盖金融体系各类参与者。 可以借鉴美联储经验。在 2008 年次贷危 机前，美联储通过日常 OMO 操作使实际联邦基金有效利用 EFFF 围绕目标波动， 实现精准管控。次贷危机后，由于 QE 导致银行间流动性过剩，美联储创设 IORB 与 ONRRP 组成新的地板系统，通过这些工具调整市场流动性。因此，我 国央行可考虑类似方式，通过日常精准投放与新型工具组合，提高资金面稳定 性与预见性，从而增强金融服务实体经济效能。 收窄短期利率走廊会对债市产生哪些具体影响？ 潘功胜行长在十五规划学习材料中提到要收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，这对央行 货币政策操作和债市定价有何影响？ 潘功胜行长提到收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，这将对央行货币政策操作和债市定 价产生深远影响。目前，人民银行已初步形成以 7 天逆回购利率为基准政策利 率、DR007 为基准市场利率的货币政策调控框 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Liquidity easing is the most certain factor in the current bond market. Although there are some disturbances in October, as long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the impact of tool maturities is relatively limited, and the government bond supply may shrink significantly, which will ease the tax - period disturbances. The probability of monetary policy tightening is low, and the DR001 and DR007 central levels in October are expected to remain slightly below 1.4% and 1.5% [3][66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 August: Government Deposits Leaked Heavily, and the Excess Reserve Ratio Dropped to a Low Level - The excess reserve ratio in August decreased by 0.1pct to 1.1% compared with July, lower than the expected 1.4%, mainly due to the 337 billion yuan increase in government deposits instead of the expected decline. This was caused by the slowdown in narrow - fiscal expenditure growth, low broad - fiscal deficit scale, treasury cash fixed - deposit withdrawal, and slow use of replacement bonds [6]. - The central bank's claims on other depository corporations in August were slightly higher than the net funds injected through reverse repurchase, MLF, PSL, SLF, and other structural monetary policy tools. The legal deposit reserve of the central bank was slightly lower than expected, while currency issuance and foreign exchange holdings were close to expectations [15]. 3.2 September: The Central Bank Offset Exogenous Disturbances with Medium - term Liquidity, and the Fundamentals Fluctuated but the Central Level Remained Stable - The broad - fiscal deficit scale in September may be at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years. The expenditure of replacement bonds will cause additional leakage of government deposits, and the net financing scale of government bonds will decline slightly compared with August. It is expected that government deposits will decrease by about 810 billion yuan month - on - month, which will supplement liquidity [16]. - In September, bank reserve payments and currency issuance increased seasonally, with the former expected to rise by 310 billion yuan and the latter by 250 billion yuan. Foreign exchange holdings may continue to withdraw about 70 billion yuan in funds [16]. - In the open market, the central bank's net injection of pledged reverse repurchase in September was 390.2 billion yuan, the net injection of outright reverse repurchase was 300 billion yuan, and the net injection of MLF was 300 billion yuan. Assuming that PSL and other structural monetary policy tools had a net withdrawal of about 200 billion yuan, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations may increase by about 790 billion yuan month - on - month. It is expected that the excess reserve ratio in September will be about 1.4%, an increase of about 0.3pct compared with August, similar to June [16][26]. - Although the central bank did not continuously increase the injection during the period of rising funds in September, the average values of DR001 and DR007 in September were roughly the same as those in July - August, indicating that the central bank maintained a relatively loose attitude within the existing framework, and the change in its operation mode may be related to exogenous disturbances and tool positioning adjustments [28]. - Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has increased the scale of policy tool injections to offset exogenous disturbances such as government deposits and bond maturity. Since Q3, the central bank has shifted its injections more towards medium - term outright reverse repurchase and MLF. After the increase in medium - and long - term liquidity injection scale, the central bank has relaxed the control of short - term fluctuations in funds [35]. - In September, the central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase to a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid, which may lower the 14 - day reverse repurchase interest rate. After the adjustment, the 14 - day reverse repurchase became a supplement to the 7 - day reverse repurchase, focusing on providing cross - quarter funds [38]. - The lower net lending of banks in September compared with June may be related to the weak sentiment of non - bank institutions and the decline in leverage willingness, which released potential risks in the funds market. The early progress of cross - quarter operations in September was also an important reason for the loose funds at the end of the month [41]. 3.3 October: Disturbances Mainly Come from Maturities and Tax Payments, but the Certainty of Liquidity Easing under the Central Bank's Care Remains Strong - In October, the broad - fiscal revenue and expenditure may show an anti - seasonal deficit, and the supply pressure of government bonds will be significantly weakened. It is expected that government deposits will increase by about 570 billion yuan month - on - month, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. After the National Day holiday, cash reflux may release about 150 billion yuan in liquidity, and the reserve payment base may decrease seasonally by about 30 billion yuan [50]. - In the open market, it is assumed that the balance of pledged reverse repurchase will drop to 2 trillion yuan at the end of October, corresponding to a net withdrawal of about 660 billion yuan in reverse repurchase. MLF and outright reverse repurchase may continue to be over - renewed, with net injections of 100 billion yuan and 300 billion yuan respectively. Assuming that PSL and other structural monetary policy tools have a net withdrawal of about 200 billion yuan, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations will decrease by about 460 billion yuan month - on - month. It is also assumed that the central bank will restart bond purchases of 100 billion yuan. Overall, it is expected that the excess reserve ratio in October will be about 1.2%, a decrease of 0.2pct compared with September, at a neutral level for non - quarter - end months [50]. - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy meeting continued the tone of the Politburo meeting in July. Although the meeting's description of the economy was slightly weakened, it emphasized that monetary policy should promote growth and prices to be at a reasonable level. The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in Q4 cannot be ruled out, but the central bank may still need to observe, and potential policy changes need to be observed in important meetings in mid - to late October [64]. - The exogenous disturbances in the funds market in October mainly come from tax periods and the large - scale maturity of policy tools. As long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the impact of tool maturities is relatively limited. The reduction in government bond supply in October will ease tax - period disturbances. The probability of monetary policy tightening is low. It is expected that the central levels of DR001 and DR007 in October will remain slightly below 1.4% and 1.5%, and whether they can become looser still needs to observe the central unified deployment [66].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has announced a change in the operation of the 14-day reverse repurchase agreement, shifting to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding system, which is expected to enhance liquidity management in the banking system [4][5]. Summary by Sections Event - On September 19, 2025, the People's Bank of China announced that the 14-day reverse repurchase operation would now be conducted with fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, along with multiple price level bidding [4]. Commentary - The primary policy interest rate in China is the 7-day Open Market Operation (OMO) rate, which is crucial for signaling monetary policy. The fixed rate bidding is deemed most appropriate. Compared to variable rate bidding, the new system allows for better allocation of scarce central bank funds to those truly in need. Traders seeking 14-day OMO funds can bid at higher rates, increasing their chances of full allocation. This change is expected to stabilize the short end of the yield curve and maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [5][6]. - It is anticipated that the 14-day OMO operations will occur more frequently than in previous years, not limited to just before major holidays. The first operation under the new bidding method is likely to take place on September 22 [5]. Interest Rate Corridor - The 7-day and 14-day OMOs are seen as new partners in maintaining liquidity, while the interest rate corridor serves as an old tool to stabilize short-term rate fluctuations. The upper limit of the corridor is the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) rate, which varies with the 7-day OMO rate, maintaining a 100 basis point spread. The lower limit is the Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER), currently at 0.35% [7]. - Narrowing the interest rate corridor could reduce fluctuations in the DR (Deposit Rate) and enhance the effectiveness of interest rate control. Two methods could achieve this: lowering the SLF rate in line with the 7-day OMO rate or reducing the spread above the OMO rate [7][8]. Market Activity - Concerns about whether lowering the SLF rate would lead to increased trading with the central bank and reduce market activity are deemed unfounded. The SLF operation volumes from May to August 2025 were significantly lower than the interbank repo transaction volumes. The current spread between the 7-day SLF and DR007 rates is at a moderate level, suggesting that a reduction in the SLF rate would not lead to excessive reliance on it by market participants [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the 14D OMO reverse - repurchase tender method can better stabilize the short - end fluctuations of the yield curve and maintain the abundance of bank system liquidity [2]. - It is expected that 14D OMO operations will be more frequent than before, and the first 14D OMO operation after the change of the tender method may be carried out on September 22, 2025 [2]. - Attention should be paid to real - time DR and CD interest rates rather than privately inquired winning bid rates of 14D OMO, as the latter contains limited monetary policy information and is often lagging [3]. - Moderately narrowing the interest rate corridor can reduce DR fluctuations and improve the efficiency of interest rate regulation, and currently, there are basic conditions to narrow the interest rate corridor by moderately reducing the SLF interest rate [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - On September 19, 2025, the People's Bank of China announced that, starting from that day, the 14 - day reverse - repurchase operation in the open market would be adjusted to fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multi - price winning bids [1]. Comment - The 7D OMO interest rate is the main policy interest rate in China. The new combination of 7D OMO (fixed - interest, quantity tender) and 14D OMO (fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, multi - price winning bids) can better stabilize the short - end fluctuations of the yield curve and maintain the abundance of bank system liquidity [2]. - It is expected that 14D OMO operations will be more frequent than in previous years, not limited to before the Spring Festival and National Day. The first 14D OMO operation after the change of the tender method may be carried out on September 22, 2025. In the future, some investors may be interested in privately inquiring about the winning bid rate of 14D OMO, but these rates contain limited monetary policy information, and attention should be paid to real - time DR and CD interest rates [2][3]. - 7D and 14D OMO are the "new partners" for maintaining liquidity abundance, and the interest rate corridor is the "old assistant" for suppressing short - end fluctuations. Moderately narrowing the interest rate corridor can reduce DR fluctuations and improve the efficiency of interest rate regulation. There are two ways to narrow the interest rate corridor: the natural compression when the 7D OMO interest rate and SLF decline together, and the reduction of the spread of the SLF interest rate above the OMO interest rate [3]. - Currently, there are basic conditions to narrow the interest rate corridor by moderately reducing the SLF interest rate. From May to August 2025, the SLF operation volume was much smaller than the inter - bank pledged repurchase trading volume. The minimum value and 10% quantile of the spread between the 7D SLF and DR007 from early 2024 to September 19, 2025, were at a moderate and relatively large level [4].

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Core Viewpoint - The central bank is actively managing liquidity in the banking system through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos, to ensure a stable financial environment and support economic growth. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - On June 11, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 164 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan for the day due to 214.9 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1] - The central bank announced a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repo operation for June 6, marking a significant liquidity injection to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [3][4] - The central bank has established a new section on its website to disclose monthly liquidity operations, enhancing transparency and demonstrating its commitment to stabilizing the financial market [4][5] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - The overnight pledged repo weighted average rate has decreased to around 1.35%, the lowest since December 2024, indicating a relaxed liquidity environment [3] - Analysts expect that the central bank will continue to use reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to maintain reasonable liquidity levels, especially with a high volume of interbank certificates maturing in June [5][6] - The central bank's proactive measures are aimed at controlling fluctuations in the money market and stabilizing market expectations, which is crucial for enhancing credit availability for businesses and households [5][6] Group 3: Economic Policies and Future Outlook - The government is accelerating the rollout of measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with a focus on effective investment and consumption [7] - There is an expectation that the central bank may resume government bond purchases in July or August to increase its holdings, which is seen as urgent for achieving financial strength goals [7] - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum on June 18-19 will feature significant financial policy announcements from central financial management departments, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance the financial landscape [7]