基本盘稳固，新业务出彩 小商品城(600415) ——小商品城 2025 年半年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 陈笑(分析师) | 021-38677906 | chenxiao2@gtht.com | S0880518020002 | 本报告导读： 公司 Q2 归母净利增速 21%，六区市场招商、进口改革、CG 及义支付等主要事项 均取得亮眼成绩，看好未来成长。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 11,300 | 15,737 | 19,662 | 24,116 | 27,497 | | (+/-)% | 48.3% | 39.3% | 24.9% | 22.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company reported a 17% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, aligning with the upper limit of its earnings forecast [1]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 7.713 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.99% [1]. - The trade services segment showed significant growth, with revenue increasing by 43% year-on-year to 530 million yuan, and total profit rising by 127% [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing growth in imports, with a total import value of 405.83 billion yuan in Yiwu, marking a 25% year-on-year increase [4]. - The report highlights the potential for new market openings in the second half of 2025 to contribute positively to performance [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.713 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.691 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 13.99% and 16.78% respectively [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 4.552 billion yuan, up 11.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 888 million yuan, up 20.77% year-on-year [1]. Market Operations - The market operations segment generated revenue of 2.379 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a profit of 1.848 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 5% and 3% respectively [2]. - The company operates multiple markets, including the International Trade City and is steadily advancing the recruitment for the sixth district [2]. Trade Services Growth - The trade services segment's revenue reached 530 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a profit of 300 million yuan, indicating robust growth [3]. - The CG platform contributed 257 million yuan in revenue, with a net profit of 155 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 110% [3]. Import Market Potential - Yiwu's import market is expanding, with a total import value of 472 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 28.3% year-on-year increase [4]. - The company is the only white-listed enterprise for the national import positive list, successfully completing trials for various consumer goods [4]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests a positive outlook for the second half of 2025, driven by new market openings and sustained demand for exports along the Belt and Road Initiative [5]. - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 4.323 billion yuan, 5.626 billion yuan, and 6.912 billion yuan respectively [5].

Summary of the Conference Call for Xiaogoods City Company Overview - Xiaogoods City benefits from an export-oriented economy, particularly strong growth in Belt and Road countries, with export growth exceeding 30% annually, effectively mitigating the impact of Sino-U.S. trade tensions [2][6] - The core business model is market operation, primarily through rental income, with the International Trade City accounting for over 85% of total transaction volume [2][11] Key Points Industry and Market Position - Xiaogoods City has a significant market share in the domestic wholesale market, which has been shrinking in number but increasing in transaction volume since 2012, indicating a shift towards e-commerce [7] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the global small commodity wholesale market, with 88% of its business being foreign trade [8] Financial Performance and Growth - The company has achieved an average annual growth rate of 20% over the past four years, significantly outpacing the overall economic growth rate [3] - In 2024, Xiaogoods City reported revenue of 7 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.6 billion RMB, with expectations of substantial profit growth from new business initiatives [24] Rental Income and Pricing Strategy - Xiaogoods City has a stable rental income model, with a gross margin potentially reaching 60-70% and a net margin exceeding 50% [13][14] - As of the end of 2024, only 16% of the rental space has achieved market-based pricing, indicating significant potential for future rental income growth [18] New Business Initiatives - The Digital Trade Center project, expected to open in October 2025, is projected to generate over 10 billion RMB in entry fees and support high double-digit profit growth for over three years [19][20] - The CG platform, a B2B e-commerce service, has substantial growth potential, with plans to increase average transaction value tenfold over the next three years [21][22] Export Business and Macro Risks - 90% of Xiaogoods City's trade volume comes from exports, with a significant portion directed towards Belt and Road countries, which account for approximately 50.3% of exports [6][39] - The company is less affected by U.S.-China trade tensions, as direct exports to the U.S. and Europe constitute less than 20% of total exports [6] Shareholder Structure and Investment Appeal - The shareholder structure is primarily composed of the Yiwu State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, making Xiaogoods City a significant contributor to the local economy [4][5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenue growth of 25% and profit growth of over 30% annually [36][43] - The transition to a floating rental model could increase rental income by over 50%, further enhancing profitability [36] Additional Insights - Xiaogoods City has diversified its revenue streams through various innovative business models, including logistics and payment solutions, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [28][30] - The company is also involved in social value projects, such as hotel and exhibition services, which, while not directly profitable, support overall business development [29] Conclusion Xiaogoods City is positioned for significant growth driven by its unique market position, innovative business strategies, and strong export performance. The company's focus on expanding its rental income potential and new business initiatives will likely enhance its profitability and market valuation in the coming years.