基本盘稳固，新业务出彩 小商品城(600415) ——小商品城 2025 年半年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 陈笑(分析师) | 021-38677906 | chenxiao2@gtht.com | S0880518020002 | 本报告导读： 公司 Q2 归母净利增速 21%，六区市场招商、进口改革、CG 及义支付等主要事项 均取得亮眼成绩，看好未来成长。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 11,300 | 15,737 | 19,662 | 24,116 | 27,497 | | (+/-)% | 48.3% | 39.3% | 24.9% | 22.7 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 19.50 CNY, while the current price is 14.86 CNY [2][11]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire 65% of Siyi Industrial to enhance its service ecosystem and become the preferred service provider for parent-child families [3][11]. - The acquisition is expected to create synergies in member operations, market layout, channel sharing, and business expansion, further driving the company's growth [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections are as follows: - 2023A: 8,753 million CNY - 2024A: 9,337 million CNY (up 6.7%) - 2025E: 11,329 million CNY (up 21.3%) - 2026E: 13,296 million CNY (up 17.4%) - 2027E: 15,507 million CNY (up 16.6%) [5] - Net profit (attributable to the parent) is projected to grow significantly: - 2023A: 105 million CNY - 2024A: 181 million CNY (up 72.4%) - 2025E: 380 million CNY (up 109.5%) - 2026E: 518 million CNY (up 36.4%) - 2027E: 667 million CNY (up 28.8%) [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast: - 2023A: 0.08 CNY - 2024A: 0.14 CNY - 2025E: 0.30 CNY - 2026E: 0.41 CNY - 2027E: 0.53 CNY [5] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is 18,750 million CNY, with a total share capital of 1,262 million shares [6]. - The stock has traded within a range of 4.91 to 16.36 CNY over the past 52 weeks [6]. Strategic Acquisition - The acquisition of Siyi Industrial, a leading enterprise in hair care services, is expected to enhance the company's market position and service offerings [11]. - Siyi Industrial has a strong brand presence with over 2,503 stores and more than 200,000 members, projecting a revenue of 7.23 billion CNY in 2024 [11]. Industry Outlook - The hair care market in China is projected to grow from 570.9 billion CNY in 2023 to 812.5 billion CNY by 2028, with a CAGR of 7.3% [11]. - The company aims to lead the market with its "Technology Hair Care 3.0" strategy, focusing on integrating new technologies and business models [11].