司的就是国际这条线；马上追踪热点 秘闻背后的事；我给你说透 欢迎各位看官收看今天的【司马秘事】 文：司马秘事 编辑：司马秘事 美联储12月降息的消息已经传得沸沸扬扬，市场大多觉得，美联储这周开会会降息，概率高到没多少悬 念。 美银更是直接喊出，建议投资者"买入谣言"，趁机加仓长久期债券，预测10年期美债收益率几个月内会 跌破4%。 这场利率博弈的背后，藏着降息、流动性宽松和人事变动的多重变数。 降息板上钉钉鹰派信号难传递 现在市场对降息的预期已经打满，美银预测，这次会议会下调今年的通胀预期，同时上调未来两年的经 济增长和失业率预期。 这些数据调整，刚好给降息找了个合理的理由，而且点阵图可能会显示明年还会有两次降息。 鲍威尔现在挺难的，他想传递"鹰派降息"的信号，也就是降息的同时提醒大家通胀还没完全搞定，不能 太宽松。 但1月会议前会有一大堆经济数据发布，他在新闻发布会上很难说圆这个话。 如果信号传递不到位，市场可能会更激进地赌1月继续降息，到时候利率波动可能会超出预期。 之前也有过类似情况，美联储想温和降息，结果市场解读成全面宽松，反而打乱了政策节奏。 这次鲍威尔能不能稳住预期，真的是个大考验。 毕竟现在市场 ...

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the structured credit market, focusing on asset-backed securities (ABS), collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) [2][3][6][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Issuance Slowdown**: The structured credit market is expected to experience a significant slowdown in issuance, as indicated by a drop in ABS-15G filings, which serve as a proxy for deal volume [2][27]. 2. **CLO Market Dynamics**: While CLO creation has remained stable, it is anticipated that the primary CLO market will slow down as new issue spreads align with secondary market spreads [3][35]. 3. **Used Car Prices Impact**: An increase in used car prices, which rose by 10%, is projected to reduce auto ABS severities by 2-2.5%, providing some insulation for auto ABS mezzanine bonds during a recession [6][21]. 4. **Rising Default Rates**: Higher leveraged loan default rates are expected, with forecasts suggesting that the share of CCC-rated loans in CLO portfolios could rise from 6.6% to 9.1% if default rates reach 8% [15][17]. 5. **CMBX Downgrade**: The CMBX 17 BBB- rating has been downgraded to neutral from overweight due to concerns about the correlation between growth and rates, which may not stabilize as previously thought [6][8]. 6. **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to shift towards higher-quality SA/SB BBB bonds, which, despite appearing expensive, offer a defensive position against market volatility [12][16]. 7. **Tariff Impacts**: The automotive sector is facing potential price increases due to tariffs, which could raise new vehicle prices by approximately 15%, affecting auto ABS investors [21][22]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Volatility**: The structured credit market is currently turbulent, with a notable decline in ABS-15G filings, particularly in esoteric and equipment ABS [27][29]. 2. **CLO Pricing Discrepancies**: There is a divergence between primary and secondary CLO spreads, suggesting that current new issue pricing may not reflect true market conditions [35][38]. 3. **Defensive Positioning**: The recommendation for investors is to focus on secondary market opportunities, particularly for CLOs managed by experienced managers, to mitigate risks associated with rising default rates and market volatility [35][41]. 4. **Forecasts for Structured Products**: The report includes forecasts for structured product spreads and housing measures, indicating a cautious outlook for the market in the coming years [43][44]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current challenges and strategic recommendations for investors in the structured credit market.