Group 1 - Gold stocks continue to decline, with Lingbao Gold down 5.51% at HKD 15.79, China Silver Group down 4.9% at HKD 0.485, Chifeng Jilong Gold down 3.96% at HKD 29.62, and Zijin Mining down 2.79% at HKD 28.56 [1] - Comex gold futures have surpassed USD 3700, reaching a new historical high, with JPMorgan forecasting spot gold prices to exceed USD 4000 per ounce by Q1 2026 [1] - JPMorgan indicates that if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, investor capital rotation could push gold prices to USD 5000 within two quarters [1] Group 2 - The biggest risk to gold prices is a significant reduction in central bank gold purchases, which could challenge the sustainability of the price increase if prices rise too high [1] - Cathay Securities notes that the US August CPI met expectations, and a weakening job market is leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [1] - As the September monetary policy meeting approaches, the market is awaiting guidance from the Federal Reserve on future interest rate cuts, while ongoing US-China negotiations may amplify metal price volatility [1]

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact - The Israeli airstrike on Hamas in Qatar has escalated geopolitical tensions, surprising the U.S. and potentially undermining normalization efforts with Gulf Arab nations [1] - The airstrike may have ended Qatar's role as a mediator in ceasefire negotiations, with other countries like Turkey being put on high alert [1] - Poland's downing of Russian drones has led to heightened tensions, with Poland seeking NATO consultations, which could draw NATO into direct conflict with Russia [3] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Comex gold futures reached a record high of $3,715.20 per ounce, while silver hit a 14-year high of $42.355 per ounce, driven by geopolitical instability [4] - Increased instability in the Middle East is expected to drive safe-haven demand for precious metals [5] - Major central banks are leaning towards easier monetary policies, with the U.S. jobs growth numbers revised down by 911,000, potentially affecting consumer confidence [6][7] Strategic Mineral Stockpiling - Countries are rushing to stockpile key minerals, with China leading in strategic mineral dominance, prompting other nations to follow suit [10] - The U.S. has initiatives to invest in domestic rare earth mining and processing to reduce dependence on China, while the EU has established a strategic stockpiling program [11] - The trend of stockpiling strategic minerals is likely to continue, positioning both the U.S. and China as major competitors in the rare-earth minerals market, which is bullish for precious metals [12]