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Group 1 - Japan's household spending data showed a surprising strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% in May, significantly exceeding market expectations, which has been a key factor in strengthening the yen [1][3] - The robust consumption data reflects the recovery momentum of the Japanese economy and provides important evidence for future adjustments in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [1][3] - The strong consumer spending growth indicates an improvement in household income conditions, likely influenced by factors such as corporate wage increases and an improving job market [3] Group 2 - Following the release of the consumption data, the USD/JPY exchange rate experienced significant volatility, briefly breaking through the technical resistance area of 144.65-144.70 before encountering resistance near 145.25 [3][4] - The technical analysis indicates that short-term support levels for USD/JPY are concentrated around 144.20 and the 144.00 integer level, with potential further declines if these key supports are breached [4] - The U.S. labor market data, including a non-farm payroll increase of 147,000 in June, has also impacted the exchange rate, with a slower wage growth limiting the upside potential for the dollar [4]

图2 受美英贸易协议消息刺激，富时100股指期货周三一度上涨0.7%，市场普遍预期该协议将缓解美国对英国商品加征关税的压力。 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普预计将于本周三晚些时候正式公布美国与英国之间的贸易协定。受此预期推动，英镑汇率及英国富时100股指期货价格 双双上扬，市场情绪显著改善。 特朗普于当地时间周二晚间在社交媒体平台发文，暗示将有一项"重大贸易协议"落地。随后多家外媒跟进报道称，协议合作方为英国。消息发布后，英镑对 美元汇率短线拉升0.5%，盘中触及1.3356高位。新加坡银行外汇策略师Moh Siong Sim分析指出，该协议虽未披露细节，但对英镑构成"边际利好"，因市场 对英美经贸关系改善抱有期待。 图1 自4月2日特朗普政府对多国发起新一轮关税攻势以来，美元持续走弱成为外汇市场主旋律。市场担忧美国经济可能面临衰退风险及通胀压力加剧，彭博美元 指数期间累计下跌约4%。股市方面，全球主要指数亦承压：英国富时100指数同期下跌0.6%，恒生中国企业指数跌幅超3%，标普500指数回落0.7%。 澳新银行集团外汇研究主管Mahjabeen Zaman提醒，市场需关注该协议的示范效应——其条款设计 ...