Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased the volume of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, leading to a more relaxed liquidity environment in the latter half of the week, which has positively impacted the bond market and caused a downward shift in the yield curve [1][9]. Market Overview - The yield on the 10-year government bond decreased by 1.3 basis points to 1.83%, reversing the gains made at the beginning of the year [1]. - The net financing of local bonds is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan this week, highlighting the need to focus on institutional absorption capacity and the impact of the end-of-month liquidity and equity market on the bond market [1]. Bond Market Performance - The yield curve for government bonds showed varied changes from January 16 to January 23, with the 1-year yield increasing by 3.95 basis points and the 30-year yield decreasing by 5.75 basis points [2][3]. - The bond futures market saw a general increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 1.02% and the 10-year contract increasing by 0.12% [4]. Upcoming Issuance - For the week of January 26 to January 30, a total of 73 bonds are planned to be issued, amounting to 474.28 billion yuan, with no government bonds scheduled for issuance [5]. International Market Insights - The U.S. bond market experienced volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching a five-month high of 4.31% before stabilizing at 4.23% by the end of the week [6][7]. - Japanese government bonds saw significant fluctuations, with the 10-year yield rising to 3.38% before retreating, driven by concerns over fiscal deterioration and expectations of interest rate hikes [8]. Institutional Perspectives - West Securities noted that the pressure from local bond supply is increasing, with a total issuance of 4.393 billion yuan expected next week, which may elevate the pressure on banks to absorb these bonds [15]. - Huatai Securities indicated that the current yield on the 10-year government bond is approaching a lower boundary of the expected range, suggesting that without significant catalysts, yields may face resistance around the 1.8% level [16].

Core Insights - Recent spot gold prices have been rising, with market sentiment indicating a potential breakthrough of historical highs [1] - Factors such as global uncertainty, increased geopolitical risks, and adjustments in major central bank monetary policies have significantly enhanced the appeal of spot gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Analysts note that fluctuations in the US dollar index, changes in US Treasury yields, and rising inflation expectations are providing strong support for spot gold prices [1]

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact - The Israeli airstrike on Hamas in Qatar has escalated geopolitical tensions, surprising the U.S. and potentially undermining normalization efforts with Gulf Arab nations [1] - The airstrike may have ended Qatar's role as a mediator in ceasefire negotiations, with other countries like Turkey being put on high alert [1] - Poland's downing of Russian drones has led to heightened tensions, with Poland seeking NATO consultations, which could draw NATO into direct conflict with Russia [3] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Comex gold futures reached a record high of $3,715.20 per ounce, while silver hit a 14-year high of $42.355 per ounce, driven by geopolitical instability [4] - Increased instability in the Middle East is expected to drive safe-haven demand for precious metals [5] - Major central banks are leaning towards easier monetary policies, with the U.S. jobs growth numbers revised down by 911,000, potentially affecting consumer confidence [6][7] Strategic Mineral Stockpiling - Countries are rushing to stockpile key minerals, with China leading in strategic mineral dominance, prompting other nations to follow suit [10] - The U.S. has initiatives to invest in domestic rare earth mining and processing to reduce dependence on China, while the EU has established a strategic stockpiling program [11] - The trend of stockpiling strategic minerals is likely to continue, positioning both the U.S. and China as major competitors in the rare-earth minerals market, which is bullish for precious metals [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's rate cuts in July and December has decreased, but due to the slower - than - expected bond - issuing pace of the US Treasury, continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly build long positions on price pullbacks. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Data 3.1 Shanghai Gold - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai gold futures active contract was 772.20 yuan/g, down 3.93 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 769.22 yuan/g [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai gold futures active contract was 259,450.00, and the open interest was 198,270.00; the trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 27,070.00, and the open interest was 221,178.00 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 28,872.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. 3.2 Shanghai Silver - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures active contract was 9,152.00 yuan/ten - gram, down 73.00 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 9,109.00 yuan/ten - gram [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai silver futures active contract was 764,716.00, and the open interest was 333,179.00; the trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 158,680.00, and the open interest was 3,334,284.00 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 1,212,789.00 kg [1]. 3.3 International Gold - **Prices**: The closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 3,354.20 (in US dollars/ounce), and the price of London gold spot was 3,323.80 US dollars/ounce [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of COMEX gold futures active contract was 55,177.00, and the open interest was - 79,249.00 [1]. - **Inventory and Fund Holdings**: The inventory was 36,797,531.57 (in troy ounces), SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 3.15, and iShare Gold ETF holdings were 445.17 [1]. 3.4 International Silver - **Prices**: The closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 38.13 US dollars/ounce, and the price of London silver spot was 37.88 US dollars/ounce [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of COMEX silver futures active contract was 55,710.00, and the open interest was 129,518.00 [1]. - **Inventory and Fund Holdings**: The inventory was 497,181,967.23 (in troy ounces), and the US iShare Silver ETF holdings were 14,819.29 [1]. 3.5 Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 518.20 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 68.71 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 66.64 US dollars/barrel [1]. - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 77,980.00 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,637.00 US dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,114.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 773.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.32%, SHIBOR one - year was 1.62%, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.4600%, and US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0500% [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.2859, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1526, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.3157 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,503.7769, the S&P 500 was 6,263.7000, the UK FTSE 100 was 72.37, the French CAC40 was 7,722.0900, the German DAX was 24,009.3800, the Nikkei 225 was 39,688.8100, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3,186.3800 [1]. 3.6 Macroeconomic Information - **US**: The US Treasury plans to increase cash reserves to 60 billion and 85 billion US dollars by the end of July and September. The number of new non - farm jobs in June was 147,000, the CPI annual rate in June was 2.7%, and the PPI annual rate in June was 2.3%, which reduced the probability of the Fed's rate cuts in September and December [1]. - **Europe**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May, and there is an expectation of 2 - 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is an expectation of an interest - rate hike by the end of 2025 [1].