铂金、钯金基础知识及 产业链介绍 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 目录 基础概念 供应与需求 01 02 铂钯期货合约（征求意见稿）解读 03 后市展望 04 会 在 热 王 水 中 溶 解 ， 形 成 氯 铂 但 酸 （H PtCl ）。 PART 01 基础概念 钯金简介 | 其 | 剂、 | 因 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 化 | 催 | 域， | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 车 | 领 | 用 | 汽 | 等 | | | | | | | | | | | | 睐。 | 应 | 宝、 | 剂 | 青 | | | | | | | | | | | | 心 | 化 | 珠 | 受 | 催 | 核 | 端 | 备 | | | | | | | | | 工 | 性 | 高 | 化 | 于 | 定 | | | | | | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming listing of platinum and palladium futures and options contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will further diversify and internationalize China's futures market, and provide new risk management tools and investment opportunities for investors [1] - In 2025, the total global platinum supply is expected to decrease by 4% year - on - year to 218 tons, mainly due to a 6% decline in mineral supply, while the increase in recycled supply is limited [3] - The global platinum mineral supply has been contracting since 2016, mainly affected by power shortages, maintenance delays, rising costs, and reduced capital expenditure. The current price - cost inversion has further constrained supply [9][10] - The recycling supply of platinum is an important supplement, but it has shown price rigidity in the short - to - medium term, and its volume is mainly driven by vehicle scrapping cycles [15] 3. Summary by Directory I. Overall Situation of Platinum Production and Supply - Platinum exists in the market mainly as platinum ingots (purity usually 99.95%, used for investment and reserves) and sponge platinum (used in industries). The global platinum supply comes from mining and recycling, and has been relatively stable in recent years [2] - In 2024, the global total platinum supply was 730,000 ounces (about 227 tons), a 2.4% year - on - year increase. It is predicted that in 2025, the total supply will drop to 218 tons (about 700,000 ounces), with a 6% decline in mineral supply and a slight increase in recycling supply [2][3] II. Mineral Supply - Platinum is often a by - product in mining, and its refining process is complex. Global platinum reserves are highly concentrated, with South Africa accounting for 88.73% [5] - The top four mining oligarchs controlled 88% of the global platinum production in 2024, forming a global monopoly system [6] - The global platinum mineral supply has been contracting since 2016, mainly due to power shortages, maintenance delays, rising costs, and reduced capital expenditure. The price - cost inversion has further constrained supply [9][10] - Key platinum mines include the Bushveld Complex in South Africa, the Great Dyke in Zimbabwe, the Norilsk Nickel Mine in Russia, and the Stillwater and East Boulder Mines in the US [12][13] III. Recycling Supply - Recycled platinum accounts for 20% - 30% of the total global supply, with North America and Europe leading the market. The industry is developing more advanced recycling technologies [15] - The supply of recycled platinum has shown price rigidity in the short - to - medium term, and its volume is mainly driven by vehicle scrapping cycles. It has declined since 2020 [15]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change [1] - The Fed's statement indicated a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the first half of the year, suggesting potential grounds for future rate cuts if the trend continues [1] - Two Fed governors voted against the rate decision, reflecting external pressures, particularly from President Trump, who advocated for lower rates [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Fed Chair Powell stated it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur in September, emphasizing the need for more economic information before making a decision [2] - Experts predict that the Fed may not cut rates until December, as inflation is expected to rise and economic growth to slow, indicating a cautious approach [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices fell over 1.5%, dropping below $1,280 per ounce, with significant declines in U.S. gold and silver companies [4] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia rising over 2% and Apple declining more than 1% [5] - Several tech companies reported strong earnings, with Qualcomm's adjusted net profit at $2.67 billion (up 25%), Microsoft's net profit at $27.2 billion (up 24%), and META's net profit at $18.34 billion (up 36%) [6] Group 4: Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.82%, with many Chinese concept stocks experiencing declines, including NIO and New Oriental dropping over 4% [7] Group 5: Copper Market - Following President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, New York copper prices plummeted over 18% [8]

Group 1: Platinum Market Insights - The surface inventory of platinum is only 100 tons, and it is expected to be depleted by 2028, leading to a strong price recovery due to tightening supply and demand dynamics [2][3] - Since 2011, platinum prices have been in a downward trend, but recent increases in jewelry and investment demand, along with a recovery in automotive demand, suggest a potential upward cycle for prices and consumption [2][4] - Key domestic downstream companies to watch include specific listed firms, while overseas mining producers are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][4] Group 2: 3D Printing Market Opportunities - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is projected to reach $7.1 billion by 2028, driven by AI empowerment and supply chain cost reductions [6] - Consumer-grade 3D printers are designed for individual users and small businesses, with applications in various sectors such as consumer goods, education, and cultural creativity [6][8] - Investment opportunities in core components and materials for 3D printing are emphasized, with specific companies recommended for attention in the hardware, scanning, and materials sectors [7][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global platinum supply is highly concentrated with low elasticity, and the output of major producers is insufficient. In 2024, the global platinum output declined, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2025. The demand for platinum in different regions and fields varies, and the global platinum market has a supply - demand gap [1][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Global Platinum Supply Pattern - **Supply Concentration**: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output decreased by 4% year - on - year to 120 tons, accounting for 71% of the global total. Zimbabwe and Russia each accounted for 11%, and other countries accounted for 8% [1] - **Supply Constraints**: Long - term trends, sub - optimal new project implementation, mine depletion, and shutdowns have continuously restricted supply, resulting in insufficient output elasticity of major global platinum producers. In 2024, factors such as power outages in Brazil and Zimbabwe, restructuring in North America, and early production decline in Canada dragged down platinum output [1] - **Production and Recycling in 2024**: The global platinum output in 2024 was 195.9 tons. The global mined platinum volume decreased by 567 kg year - on - year to 155.9 tons, and the global recycled platinum accounted for 20.4%, with the recycling volume increasing by 3% year - on - year to 39.97 tons [4] - **Production Forecast for 2025**: It is expected that the global mined platinum volume will decline by 4% year - on - year to 150.1 tons in 2025 due to the decline in South African output and the restructuring of Stillwater in North America. The catalyst recycling volume is expected to improve significantly, but the US tariff on cars may drag down the US platinum recycling volume [4] 1.2 Platinum Global Balance - **Consumption Regions and Fields**: The main consumption regions of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. China's demand accounts for 26% of the global total, with industrial demand being the largest. Western Europe and North America account for 20% and 18% respectively, with automotive catalyst demand being the largest. Japan accounts for 9%, mainly in automotive catalysts and jewelry. India's industrial demand is small, but its automotive catalyst and jewelry demand are increasing, and it may exceed Japan in the future [6] - **Demand in 2024**: In 2024, the global demand for platinum group metals decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons. Automotive industry demand decreased by 3% to 63.4 tons, jewelry demand decreased slightly by 0.3 tons to 38.3 tons, industrial demand remained flat at 63.4 tons, and hydrogen energy demand increased slightly by 0.3 tons to 2 tons, accounting for 1% [11] - **Global Platinum Balance Table**: The table shows the changes in mine production, recycling, total demand, and supply - demand balance of global platinum from 2017 to 2025f. The supply gap is expected to widen in 2025 [13]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant robbery in Mexico where armed thieves hijacked a truck carrying 33 tons of gold and silver concentrate, belonging to Grupo Minero Bacis [1] - Although the truck was recovered, the trailer containing the precious metals remains missing, indicating a serious security issue in the region [1] - The incident underscores a rising trend in highway robberies in Mexico, with a robbery occurring every 50 minutes, reflecting broader concerns about safety and crime in the mining sector [1] Group 2 - The backdrop of this robbery is the increasing prices of gold and silver driven by global economic uncertainty, which may attract more criminal activity targeting precious metals [1] - Grupo Minero Bacis, as a mining company, faces heightened risks associated with transporting valuable resources in a volatile security environment [1]

Group 1 - The Canadian stock market outperformed the US market in the first half of the year, driven by a record surge in gold prices, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index rising 8.6% compared to the S&P 500's 5.5% increase [1][3] - Half of the gains in the S&P/TSX Composite Index were attributed to gold and silver stocks, with significant contributions from companies like Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. and Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. [4] - Analysts express concerns that the gold-driven rally may not continue in the second half of the year due to reduced geopolitical and trade risks, which have previously contributed to market uncertainty [4] Group 2 - The energy sector is dragging down earnings expectations for the S&P/TSX, with a significant decline in revenue forecasts since April, primarily due to the struggling energy sector [4] - Despite the challenges, there are growth opportunities in Canadian stocks, as global investors are increasingly allocating funds to the Toronto Stock Exchange, attracted by its high weights in materials, energy, and financial sectors [5] - The S&P/TSX Composite Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 24, indicating a favorable valuation narrative for Canadian stocks [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite ongoing trade tensions and economic weakness, Canada's main stock index outperformed the U.S. benchmark index in the first half of the year, driven by record increases in gold prices [1] - As of June 30, the S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 8.6% year-to-date, surpassing the S&P 500's 5.5% increase during the same period, with a 15% increase in U.S. dollar terms [1] - Investors have flocked to gold and precious metal mining stocks as a hedge against risks from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributing to the rise of the Toronto index [1] Group 2 - Four out of the top ten performing stocks in the first half were precious metal stocks, with Agnico Eagle Mines and Wheaton Precious Metals among them, and Lundin Gold leading with a nearly 135% increase [3] - There is uncertainty about whether the gold-led rally will continue in the second half of the year as geopolitical and trade risks have diminished, leading to a decline in gold prices [3] - Despite the challenges, there are other growth opportunities in Canadian stocks, as global investors are injecting funds into the Toronto Stock Exchange due to its high exposure to materials, energy, and financial sectors [3] Group 3 - The new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is advocating for a pro-investment and growth-oriented economic agenda, which could positively impact the market [4] - The S&P/TSX Composite Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 24, indicating potential valuation opportunities [4] - There is a fundamental story based on government policy changes and a valuation story for Canadian stocks, suggesting a favorable investment environment [4]