关注短期回调后的逢低做 多机会 铂族金属月报 2025/10/10 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及行情展望 04 供给和需求 02 市场回顾 05 月差及跨市场价差 03 库存及ETF持仓变动 01 月度评估及行情展望 月度评估及行情展望 | 铂族金属重点数据汇总 | | 单位 | 2025-10-10 | | 2025-10-03 | | 周度变化 | | 周度涨跌幅度 | 月度涨跌幅度 | | 进一年历史分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铂 金 | | CFTC报告区间为 | 2025-09-23 | | 2025-09-16 | | 上 | | | | | | | | 收盘价(活跃合约) | 成交量(五日均值) | 美元/盎司 手 | 1662 30119 | 90 . 25 . | 1 ...

美股周二早盘，贵金属矿业公司赫克拉矿业（Hecla Mining，HL）股价下跌1.7%，此前该公司宣布蒙大 拿州利比勘探项目取得进展，美国林务局已出具有利决定。该项目拥有重要铜银资源，赫克拉对建立战 略合作伙伴关系以推进勘探持开放态度。 来源：环球市场播报 ...

记者丨江佩佩 张嘉钰 编辑丨刘巷 10月6日午后，港股持续调整，截至收盘，三大指数飘绿。恒生指数跌0.67%失守27000点，恒生科技指 数跌1.1%，恒生中国企业指数跌0.88%。 半导体巨头延续涨势 港股科技龙头股中，小米集团、阿里巴巴和京东集团分别下跌2.09%、2.49%和2.14%，网易和快手跌幅 也在1%以上。百度集团和腾讯控股收红，分别上涨0.72%和0.59%。 此外，中华燃气（08246.HK）早盘一度大涨超300%，截至收盘，该股仍涨113.51%，报0.158港元/股。 该公司此前公告称，公司10月3日（交易时段后）与认购人订立认购协议，认购人有条件同意认购而公 司有条件同意配发及发行合共3.34亿股认购股份，认购价为每股0.075港元。据悉，这一认购价较10月3 日收盘价每股0.074港元溢价约1.35%。 中华燃气(8246) W 闭市 10-06 16:08:37 0 158 额 447.01万 股本 42.64亿 市盈-11.9 力得 20 换 0.58% 市值6.74亿 市净 4.97 +0.084 +113.51% 盯盘 因中秋节假期,港股于10月7日休市 关网4 日K 周K ...

港股恒生指数跌0.61%，跌164点，报26976点；恒生科技指数跌1.2%。港股早盘成交723亿港元。 国际金价再创历史新高，贵金属板块涨幅居前。中国白银集团(00815)涨超20%，紫金黄金国际(02259) 涨超5%。 新疆新鑫矿业(03833)再涨超12%，年内累涨超3倍，新疆新鑫矿业计划发行A股。 比特币在市场的推动下突破12.5万美元大关，创下历史新高。加密货币概念股集体走高。欧科云链 (01499)涨超14%，博雅互动(00434)涨超10%。 禾赛-W(02525)涨超4%，年内第100万台激光雷达已于9月底正式生产下线。 北大青鸟环宇(08095)盘中飙升逾58%，旗下JBD携手AMAT与雷鸟创新，提升AR眼镜显示画质。 云锋金融(00376)再涨超7%，公司携手Anthea共同探索以区块链为基础的保险产品。 叮当健康(09886)飙升26%，公司持续加码创新药布局，近期上架多款创新药。 双登股份(06960)再涨超9%，AIDC能耗跃升推动储能需求，公司为阿里数据中心储能主力供应商。 华虹半导体(01347)涨超5%再创新高，股价暂现八连阳，机构称先进制造产能为稀缺资源。 博彩股全线重挫， ...

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact - The Israeli airstrike on Hamas in Qatar has escalated geopolitical tensions, surprising the U.S. and potentially undermining normalization efforts with Gulf Arab nations [1] - The airstrike may have ended Qatar's role as a mediator in ceasefire negotiations, with other countries like Turkey being put on high alert [1] - Poland's downing of Russian drones has led to heightened tensions, with Poland seeking NATO consultations, which could draw NATO into direct conflict with Russia [3] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Comex gold futures reached a record high of $3,715.20 per ounce, while silver hit a 14-year high of $42.355 per ounce, driven by geopolitical instability [4] - Increased instability in the Middle East is expected to drive safe-haven demand for precious metals [5] - Major central banks are leaning towards easier monetary policies, with the U.S. jobs growth numbers revised down by 911,000, potentially affecting consumer confidence [6][7] Strategic Mineral Stockpiling - Countries are rushing to stockpile key minerals, with China leading in strategic mineral dominance, prompting other nations to follow suit [10] - The U.S. has initiatives to invest in domestic rare earth mining and processing to reduce dependence on China, while the EU has established a strategic stockpiling program [11] - The trend of stockpiling strategic minerals is likely to continue, positioning both the U.S. and China as major competitors in the rare-earth minerals market, which is bullish for precious metals [12]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector in the Hong Kong stock market has strengthened, with China Gold International rising over 10% [1] - Other companies such as China Silver Group, WanGuo Gold Group, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining have increased by over 8% [1] - Lingbao Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold also experienced gains [1] Group 2 - The spot gold price has surpassed $3,470 per ounce, reaching a new high since April 22 [1]

Group 1 - The US Geological Survey (USGS) has proposed adding silver and five other minerals to the critical minerals list for 2025, pending review under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows tariffs on goods deemed essential for national security [1] - The six minerals proposed for inclusion are copper, potash, silicon, silver, lead, and rhenium, while arsenic and tellurium may be removed from the list [1] - Citigroup analysts noted that if silver is included in the critical minerals list, it could face a potential Section 232 tariff investigation, with import tariffs possibly reaching up to 50% [1] Group 2 - Amplify ETFs' product development VP Nate Miller indicated that the surge in investment demand for silver has significantly boosted the silver market [2] - Miller highlighted two key factors driving strong support for silver this year: its dual role as both an industrial and monetary metal [2] - The current silver price is reported at $38.83 per ounce, with a potential upward target of $50 to $52 per ounce if the gold-silver ratio normalizes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of platinum and palladium is highly concentrated and growth - restricted. Their prices depend on real supply - demand patterns and speculative activities. The demand for both has declined from historical highs, with platinum's demand being slightly better than palladium's in recent years. In 2025, there will be a supply - demand gap for platinum and a surplus for palladium. Platinum prices are expected to strengthen, while palladium may continue to face pressure [94][96][98]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basic Concepts - Platinum is a rare noble metal with high stability, corrosion resistance, and good ductility. It is often associated with other metals in the platinum - group. Palladium, discovered in 1803, has unique physical and chemical properties, high catalytic activity, and is widely used in environmental protection, medical treatment, and other fields. After heat treatment, it becomes soft and malleable, and can be slowly dissolved in certain acids [4][8]. - Palladium's various properties make it widely used in different fields. It is used as a catalyst in the chemical industry, for hydrogen storage and sensing, in electronic components, and forms alloys for jewelry and other industrial applications [10]. 3.2 Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Platinum Supply - The platinum industry chain includes upstream mines, where low - grade ores are refined into products like platinum ingots and sponge platinum. In the middle - stream, it is used to make catalysts, compounds, electrodes, etc. Downstream applications are in jewelry, investment, the automotive industry, and the hydrogen industry [13]. - The supply of platinum is mainly from mines, with South Africa accounting for over 70% of global reserves. Recycling is also an important source, which consists of scrap - car catalyst recycling, jewelry recycling, and industrial recycling. In 2024, the recycling supply was 47.6 tons, up 1% from 2023, and is expected to reach 48.9 tons in 2025. However, global platinum supply is still restricted, with a projected 4% decline in 2025 [15][17][21]. 3.2.2 Platinum Demand - In the past five years, the automotive sector has had the highest demand for platinum (37%), followed by industry (31%), jewelry (26%), and investment (6%). The automotive demand for platinum depends on factors such as the number of vehicles, vehicle size, and power - system trends. Global automotive platinum demand decreased by 2% in 2024 to 96.6 tons and is expected to decline by another 2% in 2025 to 94.9 tons [24]. - In the industrial field, platinum is used in five main areas: chemical (28% average weight in the past five years), glass (24%), medical (12%), petroleum (7%), and electronics (5%). The demand from the fixed - hydrogen and other areas is expected to grow by 35% in 2025 to 1.8 tons, while the other industrial demand is expected to slightly decline by 1% to 17.7 tons [26][31][39]. - Platinum jewelry demand is relatively stable in the past 10 years, with different trends in different regions. Its demand is driven by economic growth, social changes, consumption habits, and price changes [42][43]. - Platinum investment demand includes physical and virtual forms. Chinese physical investment demand has been increasing, and European platinum ETFs have the largest持仓 [65][66]. 3.2.3 Palladium Supply - The palladium industry chain involves upstream mining and smelting, mainly in South Africa and Russia, mid - stream processing into compounds and catalysts, and downstream recycling. The main palladium deposits are in South Africa, Russia, etc. The global annual palladium production is about 190 tons, with South Africa and Russia accounting for 38.1% and 39.6% respectively. In 2024, the global palladium recycling volume was about 83.35 tons, accounting for 30.6% of the total supply [44][49][52]. 3.2.4 Palladium Demand - In 2024, the main demand for palladium was from automotive catalysts (82.3%), followed by chemical (5.4%), dental (1.8%), etc. It is mainly used in gasoline - powered vehicle catalysts to reduce emissions, with about 80% used in automotive three - way catalysts. China, Europe, Japan, and North America are major demand regions [55][56]. - Palladium's industrial demand has declined from 25% in 2010 to about 11% currently. It is widely used in various industrial fields and is crucial for the hydrogen industry [57]. - Palladium jewelry demand is low, accounting for about 0.8% of the total demand. Its investment demand includes bars, coins, and ETFs, but the scale of the well - known palladium ETF has decreased significantly [61][68]. 3.3 Interpretation of Platinum and Palladium Futures Contracts (Draft for Soliciting Opinions) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has released a draft for platinum and palladium futures contracts. The draft has adjusted some details compared to the previous design. The price limits and margin requirements are set higher than those of gold and silver futures to cover price fluctuations [70][71]. - The futures use a three - stage gradient margin system. The price limit for normal months is 4%, and for delivery months, it is 6% [74][77]. - The exchange innovatively includes ingots, sponge, and powder forms of platinum and palladium in the delivery. The delivery unit is 1000 grams per hand. The delivery place may be concentrated in mining areas, recycling areas, and southeastern coastal cities [84][85][90]. 3.4 Future Outlook - The supply of platinum and palladium is concentrated and growth - restricted. The demand has declined from historical highs. In 2025, platinum will have a supply - demand gap, while palladium will have a surplus. Platinum prices are expected to strengthen, and palladium may face pressure [94][96][98].

Group 1 - New Pacific Metals (NEWP.US) experienced a 7.59% increase in stock price, closing at $1.70, with a year-to-date gain of 44% [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole conference has increased expectations for a rate cut in September from 75% to 90% [1] - UBS has raised its gold price target for June 2024 by $200 to $3,700 per ounce, anticipating continued upward momentum driven by U.S. factors [1] Group 2 - New Pacific Metals focuses on investment, exploration, and development of precious metal resources in South America and North America [1] - The company has significant mining projects in Bolivia, including Carangas silver-gold mine, flagship Silver Sand silver mine, and Silverstrike silver-gold mine [1] - The upcoming presidential transition in Bolivia is expected to lead to more open and free market policies for mineral resources, which could positively impact the future performance of lithium and silver [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming listing of platinum and palladium futures and options contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will further diversify and internationalize China's futures market, and provide new risk management tools and investment opportunities for investors [1] - In 2025, the total global platinum supply is expected to decrease by 4% year - on - year to 218 tons, mainly due to a 6% decline in mineral supply, while the increase in recycled supply is limited [3] - The global platinum mineral supply has been contracting since 2016, mainly affected by power shortages, maintenance delays, rising costs, and reduced capital expenditure. The current price - cost inversion has further constrained supply [9][10] - The recycling supply of platinum is an important supplement, but it has shown price rigidity in the short - to - medium term, and its volume is mainly driven by vehicle scrapping cycles [15] 3. Summary by Directory I. Overall Situation of Platinum Production and Supply - Platinum exists in the market mainly as platinum ingots (purity usually 99.95%, used for investment and reserves) and sponge platinum (used in industries). The global platinum supply comes from mining and recycling, and has been relatively stable in recent years [2] - In 2024, the global total platinum supply was 730,000 ounces (about 227 tons), a 2.4% year - on - year increase. It is predicted that in 2025, the total supply will drop to 218 tons (about 700,000 ounces), with a 6% decline in mineral supply and a slight increase in recycling supply [2][3] II. Mineral Supply - Platinum is often a by - product in mining, and its refining process is complex. Global platinum reserves are highly concentrated, with South Africa accounting for 88.73% [5] - The top four mining oligarchs controlled 88% of the global platinum production in 2024, forming a global monopoly system [6] - The global platinum mineral supply has been contracting since 2016, mainly due to power shortages, maintenance delays, rising costs, and reduced capital expenditure. The price - cost inversion has further constrained supply [9][10] - Key platinum mines include the Bushveld Complex in South Africa, the Great Dyke in Zimbabwe, the Norilsk Nickel Mine in Russia, and the Stillwater and East Boulder Mines in the US [12][13] III. Recycling Supply - Recycled platinum accounts for 20% - 30% of the total global supply, with North America and Europe leading the market. The industry is developing more advanced recycling technologies [15] - The supply of recycled platinum has shown price rigidity in the short - to - medium term, and its volume is mainly driven by vehicle scrapping cycles. It has declined since 2020 [15]