Core Viewpoint - The company, ZTE Microelectronics (卓胜微), is positioned as a leading domestic player in the SAW filter market, aiming to break the monopoly held by international competitors, particularly Japan's Murata, which dominates with over 90% market share [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - As of September 30, 2025, ZTE Microelectronics' stock closed at 83.12 yuan, reflecting a 2.64% increase with a turnover rate of 3.32% and a trading volume of 148,800 lots, resulting in a transaction value of 1.238 billion yuan [1]. - On the same day, the net inflow of main funds was 55.0516 million yuan, accounting for 4.45% of the total transaction value [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The global RF front-end market is highly concentrated, with significant technological barriers in the design and manufacturing of filters, primarily dominated by foreign leading companies [3]. - The company has achieved mass production of high-end SAW filters and has a comprehensive product lineup, including duplexers, triplexers, and single-chip multi-band filters, indicating strong production capabilities [3]. - The company is focused on enhancing its high-end, customized, and differentiated capabilities in response to customer demands, supported by the Chip ZTE resource platform [3].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.704 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.42% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -147 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 141.59% [1] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was -151 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 142.77% [1] - In 2Q2025, the company reported operating revenue of 948 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.43% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.43% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2Q2025 was -101 million yuan, with the loss margin expanding quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross profit margin for 1H2025 declined to 28.75% due to high wafer costs and increased depreciation [1] Group 2: Business Model and Product Development - The company is deepening its Fab-Lite operating model, with the revenue share of RF front-end modules increasing from 36.34% in the previous year to 44.35% [2] - The company has successfully validated its first domestically supplied L-PAMiD product and has entered the mass production and delivery phase [2] - The WiFi 7 module has achieved large-scale production and stable shipments, while automotive-grade UWB chips have entered mass production [2] - The 6-inch filter production line has achieved mass production of duplexers and quadplexers, with integrated self-produced filters being successfully introduced to multiple brand customers [2] - The 12-inch production line has rapidly increased capacity to 5,000 wafers per month and has entered a stable production phase with high product yield [2] - As production volume increases and operational efficiency improves, the high-cost issues due to low capacity utilization are expected to gradually ease, leading to a stabilization and recovery of product gross margins [2] Group 3: Future Projections - The company projects revenues of 4.22 billion yuan, 5.21 billion yuan, and 5.86 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] - The net profits attributable to the parent company are expected to be -58 million yuan, 405 million yuan, and 743 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] - Corresponding PE ratios for 2026 and 2027 are projected to be 111.92 and 61.03 times, respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic RF front-end industry is facing unprecedented challenges, with leading companies like ZTE Microelectronics, Weijie Chuangxin, and Huizhiwei reporting significant losses, indicating a severe market downturn driven by intense competition and overcapacity [1][4]. Group 1: ZTE Microelectronics - ZTE Microelectronics reported a revenue of 756 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 36.47%, with a net profit loss of 46.62 million yuan [1]. - The company has shifted its focus from RF switch products to integrated modules, achieving self-production of RF filters and power amplifiers, but this transition has not yielded the expected results, leading to a decline in revenue from RF switches [2]. - The Fab-Lite strategy adopted by ZTE Microelectronics aims to enhance supply chain control but has resulted in increased R&D costs and fixed asset depreciation, contributing to a 64.2% drop in net profit in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Weijie Chuangxin - Weijie Chuangxin, a leading player in the RF power amplifier sector, reported a revenue of 2.103 billion yuan in 2024, down 29.46% year-on-year, with a net profit loss of 23.73 million yuan [4][6]. - The company has maintained a strong market position in the RF power amplifier field, with a 40% market share in 4G PA and 30% in 5G products, but has faced challenges due to declining prices and increased competition [5]. - Despite its strong R&D capabilities and market presence, Weijie Chuangxin has struggled to maintain profitability, oscillating between profit and loss [6]. Group 3: Huizhiwei - Huizhiwei has focused on technological innovation as its core competitive advantage, achieving significant breakthroughs in RF front-end chip technology [7][8]. - The company has developed a reconfigurable RF front-end technology that combines SOI and GaAs materials, allowing it to compete effectively against international suppliers [8][9]. - Huizhiwei's Phase8L L-PAMiD module has achieved mass production and is positioned to enhance the domestic RF front-end industry's competitiveness against international players [9][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The competition in the domestic RF front-end market is characterized by both technological and capital challenges, with companies needing to invest heavily in R&D while also managing operational costs [11]. - The market is expected to undergo significant changes, with the introduction of new products and technologies potentially reshaping the competitive landscape [12][13]. - The year 2025 is anticipated to mark the beginning of a more intense phase of competition in the domestic RF front-end sector, as companies strive to establish their market positions [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 93.4 RMB [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.487 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 64.2% to 402 million RMB due to increased module revenue share, production line depreciation, and market competition [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from an increase in market share for filter modules and the ramp-up of LPAMiD products in 2025, although gross margins may continue to be pressured by production line depreciation [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 4.487 billion RMB, slightly below the expected 4.564 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 39.49%, down 6.96 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.119 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4%, with a net loss of 24 million RMB [1][2]. Market Outlook - For 2025, the company is projected to see revenue growth driven by increased market share in filter modules and the mass production of LPAMiD products, with the global Android smartphone shipment expected to grow by 2.5% [3][4]. - The company’s self-developed RF switches and low-noise amplifiers have entered mass production, enhancing its competitive advantage [3]. Investment Recommendations - The target price is set at 93.4 RMB, reflecting a 10x price-to-sales ratio based on 2025 estimates, with expected revenues of 4.995 billion RMB in 2025, 5.851 billion RMB in 2026, and 6.739 billion RMB in 2027 [4][6]. - The report indicates that the company remains a leader in the domestic RF industry, with a solid foundation in receiving end products and a gradually improving layout in the transmitting end [4].