1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, with significant influence from pre - holiday funds. After the holiday, it will fluctuate widely under the influence of expectations of price increases, rush shipments, and off - season [3]. - For far - month contracts, it's difficult to anchor the valuation of peak - season contracts, and shipping companies have a large space for price - adjustment operations. It is recommended to operate with caution. The 10 - contract valuation is moderately high, and the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained [3]. - For new contracts, referring to historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is mainly to short the 09 contract and go long on the 07 contract, but the valuation given by the market is relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the off - season switching node, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3]. - Before the Spring Festival holiday, there are frequent position - closing operations by funds, and the market is expected to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to operate with caution this week [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Data - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1258.9, up 6.88%. The basis was 399.0, yesterday's trading volume was 36394, and the open interest was 31021, with a change of - 2006 [2]. - EC2605: The price was 1304.0, up 2.25%. The basis was 353.9, trading volume was 138, open interest was 194, with a change of - 20 [2]. - EC2606: The price was 1566.1, up 4.34%. The basis was 91.8, trading volume was 4232, open interest was 13387, with a change of - 798 [2]. - EC2607: The price was 1743.0, up 1.34%. The basis was - 85.1, trading volume was 48, open interest was 132, with a change of 13 [2]. - EC2608: The price was 1632.0, up 3.23%. The basis was 25.9, trading volume was 452, open interest was 1402, with a change of 31 [2]. - EC2609: The price was 1233.1, down 0.56%. The basis was 424.8, open interest was 133, with a change of - 1 [2]. - EC2610: The price was 1131.1, up 2.36%. The basis was 526.8, trading volume was 1230, open interest was 8090, with a change of - 218 [2]. - EC2612: The price was 1425.4, up 2.18%. The basis was 232.5, open interest was 122, with a change of - 3 [2]. 3.2 Month - spread Data - EC2604 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 307.2, with a daily increase of 15.9 and a weekly decrease of 7.4 [2]. - EC2604 - 2605: The previous day's value was - 45.1, with a daily increase of 52.3 [2]. - EC2606 - 2610: The previous day's value was 435.0, with a daily increase of 39.0 and a weekly increase of 36.7 [2]. 3.3 Spot Index Data - Spot (European Line): On February 9, 2026, it was 1657.94 points, down 7.49% from the previous period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): On February 6, 2026, it was 1403 dollars/TEU, down 1.06% from the previous period [2]. 3.4 European Line Spot Situation - Week 7: MSK's opening rate was 1950 dollars (down 100 dollars from the previous week), PA was around 2000 dollars, MSC was 2140 dollars, OA was 2300 dollars. The central rate was 2130 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the market [4]. - Week 8 - 9: MSK's opening rate remained at 1950 dollars, and other shipping companies also mainly continued their previous quotes [4]. - March price increase announcement: Last week, MSC took the lead in issuing a price - increase letter, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL. The European line price was announced to increase to 3000 - 3100 dollars [4]. - On Tuesday, MSK's opening rate for the first week of March (week 10) was 1950 dollars, the same as the previous week [4]. 3.5 Relevant News - On February 12, 2026, US President Trump said that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious". He also said that the meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was "very good", and whether to reach an agreement "ultimately depends on me" [5]. - On February 12, 2026, Trump said that the meeting with Netanyahu was very successful, and they discussed the great progress in Gaza and the entire region [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook is for the market to be volatile [3] Core Viewpoints - The spot market is still in a price - cut cycle, and the market has some doubts about the effect of the price increase letter in the off - season of March. New contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 were listed today. The main contract EC2604 opened lower, with its decline widening at noon and falling more than 5% during the session. The trading volume rebounded to some extent. As of the close, the 04 contract increased its positions and closed at 1179 points, down 4.77%, and the current open interest rose to 34,000 lots [1] - The 05 and 07 contracts are stronger due to the peak - season attribute, while the 09 off - season contract shows differentiation. The main contract trades based on the pessimistic logic of the price - holding effect in March and returns to the 1170 - 1200 point range with amplified fluctuations. In the subsequent fundamentals, MSK opened the cabin at 1900 US dollars/FEU at the beginning of March. Attention should be paid to whether photovoltaic goods can drive the cargo volume to rebound in advance through short - term export rush pulses. After the festival, attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer and contract replacement brought by newly listed contracts [2] - The 05 contract closed at 1273 points on the first day of listing, with a premium of 94 points over the 04 contract and a discount of 226 points to the 06 contract. Considering the impact of US tariff increases on global trade in May 2025 and the possible subsequent position transfer and contract replacement, the reverse arbitrage logic of the 04 - 05 contracts can be considered [2] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - The main contract EC2604 opened lower, and its decline widened at noon, falling more than 5% during the session. The trading volume rebounded, and it closed at 1179 points, down 4.77%, with the current open interest rising to 34,000 lots. Some contracts fluctuated greatly, with the EC2607 contract rising more than 12% to close at 1731 points (the contract with the highest valuation on the market), and the EC2609 contract falling 22.99% to close at 1239.5 points [1] Spot Market Freight Rates - According to Jiyu Technology, the freight rate of MSK in the first week of March remained flat at 1900/2000 US dollars. The AE1 Shanghai - Rotterdam freight rate of NSK on March 6 was 1200/1900/2000 US dollars/TEU/FEU, remaining flat compared with February 26. The HPL - SPOT freight rate in February was 1835 US dollars/FEU, and in March it was at a high of 2935 US dollars/FEU. The low - price of 00CL in February was 2330 US dollars/FEU; CMA maintained at 2293 US dollars/FEU in February and 3393 US dollars/FEU in March. ONE maintained at 2035 US dollars/FEU in February and 2535 US dollars/FEU at the beginning of March; MSC maintained at 2140 US dollars/FEU in February [1] Geopolitical Situation - According to CCTV News, the US advised US merchant ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters. On February 9 local time, the US issued the latest guidelines to merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, advising US - flagged merchant ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters as much as possible and verbally refuse when requested to be boarded by the Iranian military [1] Macroeconomic Situation - According to Jinshi Data, the Sentix investor confidence index in the Eurozone in February was 4.2, expected to be 0, and the previous value was - 1.8. Germany rebounded unexpectedly, with its index rising from - 16.4 last month to - 6.9, reaching the highest level since July 2025 [2] Trading Logic - New contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 were added today. The 05 and 07 contracts are stronger due to the peak - season attribute, while the 09 off - season contract shows differentiation. The main contract trades based on the pessimistic logic of the price - holding effect in March and returns to the 1170 - 1200 point range with amplified fluctuations. Attention should be paid to whether photovoltaic goods can drive the cargo volume to rebound in advance and the risk of position transfer and contract replacement [2] Contract Analysis - The 05 contract closed at 1273 points on the first day of listing, with a premium of 94 points over the 04 contract and a discount of 226 points to the 06 contract. Considering the impact of US tariff increases on global trade in May 2025 and the possible subsequent position transfer and contract replacement, the reverse arbitrage logic of the 04 - 05 contracts can be considered [2]