热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 高聪 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月上半月船期报价1859/3293；EMC 12月下半月1955/3010，1月上 半月船期报价2255/3510；OOCL 12月下半月船期报价2730-2752美元/FEU，1月份船期报价1880/3230。 地缘端：有美国政府官员表示，以色列国防部长卡茨有关在加沙地带建定居点的言论正在损害推进加沙 和平的努力，并可能削弱阿拉伯国家与以方的合作意愿。一名美国官员在一份回复媒体询问的声明中 说："以色列越挑衅，阿拉伯国家就越不愿与其合作。"卡茨当天早些时候称，以色列将在"适当的时 间"通过"适当的方式"，在加沙地带北部建立由军方支持的定居点，作为未来发展更大规模民用定居点 的基础，并且以军"永远不会离开整个加沙"。 上海国际能源交易中心拟修订《上海国际能源交易中心集运指数（欧线）其期货标准合约》。向社会公 开征求意见，具体内容如下：一是将合约月份由"2、4、6、8、10、12月"调整为"最近1-6个月为连续月 份（2月除外），以及随后两个季月"。拟挂牌最近1-6 ...

现货方面仍处于春节前发运高峰,02合约最后交易日对02合约有抬升作用。一方面,EC2602合约最后交易日为2月9日,因此实 际采集的运价为1月19日-2月8日实际发生的运价。2026年除夕为2月16日,春节前发运高峰或可持续至春节前一段时间,因此相比去年 现货运价在12月见顶、目前现货运价仍在持续上行的达峰过程中。从SCFI、TCI、WCI等现货运价指数来看，现货端当前实现了1500美 元/TEU,2600美元/FEU以上的现货水平,同时从发运时间来看元旦后首周仍不能看到现货运价整体达到高点。 近期市场仍存一定扰动。首先现货运力仍有调整、由于欧洲港口拥堵、欧线现货航运市场船期呈现边际下调的趋势，1月计划运 力调整至30.7万TEU/周，环比下调，部分航运公司在旺季会临时增加加班船，其次现货见顶后整体回落幅度仍不确定，航运公司或宣 涨1月下半月现货运价:带动市场对旺季预期高点仍有上浮空间:当前针对欧线期货近月或将转为连续合约，后续市场移仓或呈现一定 调整。 【中信期货航运】现货乐观预期带动EC主力合约增仓上 2025/12/22 涨,盘后SCFIS更新于1589.20点上涨5.2% 投资咨询业务资格: 伊 工业 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 高聪 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第二周价格介于1435/2230，12月第三周价格1530/2400； HPL -SPOT 12月上半月船期报价1285/2035，12月下半月价格1885/3035． MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465，12月下半月价格1605/2665；ONE 12月上半月 价格1735/2235，12月下半月船期报价2125/2835；HMM上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船司价格1208/2106； YML 12/8-12/15船期价格最新更新为1250/2000，其中FE3 FE4单航次特价1100/1700． Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船期报价1435/2445，12月下半月船期价格介于 1985/3545；EMC 12月上半月价格1855/2810；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2230-2430美元/FEU，12月下 半月船期价格1780/3030． ...

MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 11月下半月价格1425/2365；ONE 11月下半月船期1695/2635；HMM上海-鹿特丹11 月下半月船期报价1168/2106; YML 11/15-11/30 报价1250/2000。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹11月下半月船期报价介于3120-3170美元/FEU，12月上半月船期报价介于 3420-3520美元/FEU，12月下半月船期报价2160/3920；EMC 11月下半月船期报价1855/2810；OOCL 11月下半月 船期报价介于2300-2400美元/FEU。 航运日报 | 2025-11-14 11月下半月运价持续修正，关注交易所对于2月合约交割结 算定义 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹47周价格1365/2280，48周价格范围为2000-2100美元/FEU；HPL -SPOT 11 月下半月船期报价1735/2835，12月上半月船期报价1935/3235，12月下半月2435/4035。马士基发布12月份涨价函 2080/3200. 地缘端：在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The freight rate continued to be adjusted in the second half of November, and attention should be paid to the definition of the delivery and settlement of the February 2026 contract by the exchange [1]. - The trading of the December 2025 contract focuses on the rhythm, with the overall valuation support constantly rising. The final valuation range of the December contract is initially estimated to be between 1700 - 1850 points [3][4]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation. Attention should be paid to the definition of its delivery and settlement price [4]. - The strategy suggests that the December contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate with an upward bias. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's price for the 47th week is 1365/2280, and the price range for the 48th week is 2000 - 2100 dollars/FEU. Some companies have also issued price increase letters [1]. - **Geopolitical Aspect**: The Houthi armed forces stated that if the enemy resumes aggression against Gaza, they will resume military operations and the ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea [2]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in the remaining 4 weeks of November is 246,500 TEU, and the average weekly capacity in December is 338,800 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November, and 3 TBNs in December [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Research - **December 2025 Contract**: The trading rhythm of the December contract involves trading price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters. If there are three rounds of price increase letters and each round is implemented with an increase of 300 dollars/FEU, the price in the second half of December may reach 3000 dollars/FEU, and the valuation ceiling of the December contract may be around 2100 points [3]. - **February 2026 Contract**: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation. The traditional definition of the delivery and settlement price may be affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and attention should be paid to the exchange's new definition [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The December contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate with an upward bias [6]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: None [6]. 3.4 Other Data - **Futures Contract Positions and Prices**: As of November 12, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 74,149.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 57,514.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes on different dates are given, such as the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price on November 7 being 1323 dollars/TEU [5]. - **Container Ship Deliveries**: 226 container ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered in 2025 as of November 9. The number and capacity of ships in different size ranges are also provided [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 12 - month contract of container shipping index futures for European routes is expected to be volatile and bullish. The trading of the 12 - month contract focuses on the rhythm, including the expectation and actual implementation of price increases. The shipping companies will adjust supply to maintain high freight rates for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. However, the weak demand in the US line and potential ship transfer to the European line may put pressure on European line prices [7][10]. - For the October contract, the valuation is becoming clear. Attention should be paid to the actual cargo - collecting prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of the price increase in the second half of October [6]. - The 2026 annual contract may face valuation pressure due to potential resumption of shipping. Continuous tracking of the Palestine - Israel negotiation and the resumption of the Suez Canal is needed [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes and price increase plans for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam week 43 quote is 1095/1830; HPL's 10 - month second - half price is 1185/1935, and it plans to raise the price to 1200/2000 after October 15. Maersk plans to raise the price to 1625/2500 after November 3 [1]. - **Geopolitical Aspect**: The Houthi armed forces in Yemen said they would stop attacking Israeli and related ships in the Red Sea if Israel abides by the Gaza cease - fire agreement. But they will monitor Israel's compliance, and more intense attacks will be launched if Israel resumes military operations [3]. 2. Dynamic Supply - **China - European Base Port Capacity**: In October, the average weekly capacity for the remaining three weeks is 276,100 TEU. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 302,800 TEU, and in December, it is 287,700 TEU. There are 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November and 7 TBNs in December [4]. 3. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13, 20, and 27. The current freight rate center in the first half of October is about 1400 US dollars/FEU. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of the price increase in the second half of October, with shipping companies trying to raise the price to 1800 - 2200 US dollars/FEU [6]. - **December Contract**: The trading focuses on the rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The 12 - month contract will first trade the price increase expectation, then the actual implementation, and repeat this process until delivery [7]. 4. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish [10]. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern in 2025 remains in an oversupply situation. The container shipping volume growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 2.6%, lower than the shipping growth rate of 5.3% [4]. - The impact of the rush - shipping in the US line on the European line is limited. Currently, the transfer of US line capacity is not obvious, and subsequent capacity adjustments need to be monitored [5]. - The 06 and 08 contracts are traditional peak - season contracts for the European line, and the shipping companies have strong bargaining power and price - holding ability. The 10 - month contract faces uncertainties after the 90 - day buffer period, and it is a traditional off - season [6]. - In 2025, the freight rate of the European line is expected to show a downward trend, and this supply - demand imbalance may continue until 2026. Short - term freight rate fluctuations are affected by tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [49]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Shipping Basics - **Shipping Market Introduction**: The shipping market is the cornerstone of global trade, accounting for over 90% of international cargo transportation. It can be divided into three main segments. In 2024, the global container trade volume reached 210 million TEU, accounting for 15.1% of the total global maritime trade volume. The container shipping volume of the Asia - Europe route accounts for 10.7% of the total container shipping volume [13][14]. - **Introduction to European Line Shipping Indexes**: The main China - Europe freight rate indexes include SCFI, SCFIS, CCFI, and the Baltic Freight Index (China - Europe). SCFI has a leading effect on SCFIS by about 2 weeks. CCFI changes more slowly than immediate freight rate indexes during rapid price increases or decreases [19][25]. - **Introduction to the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: It was listed on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in August 2023, with the underlying index being the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (European Route). The trading unit is 50 yuan/point, and the contract delivery months are even - numbered months of the year [26]. 2. Analysis Logic - **Seasonality**: Usually, 7 - 8 months are the Christmas stocking period, and 12 - 1 months are the pre - Chinese New Year rush - shipping period, which are peak seasons. 3 - 4 months and around October are off - seasons. However, during the pandemic and the Red Sea crisis, there were anti - seasonal price increases [28][29]. - **Shipping Costs**: Taking a 20,000 - TEU container ship as an example, the main costs include depreciation, loan costs, fuel costs, and port fees. Focusing on variable costs, in an efficient operation scenario, the cost per standard container can be compressed to the range of $545 - 579, corresponding to an index below 800 points. Currently, the European line index is still well above this level [32][36]. - **Capacity Supply**: Container ship construction is mainly undertaken by China, Japan, and South Korea. In 2025, the global delivery volume is expected to be 232 ships/1.89 million TEU. The overall global capacity will be in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to ease after 2026 [37]. - **Geopolitics**: Since the Red Sea situation deteriorated, about 90% of ships on the Asia - Europe route have chosen to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, which increases the shipping cycle and costs and provides some price support for the European line [42]. - **European Economy and Tariff Impact on Demand**: The demand for the European line is mainly affected by the European economy. Economic indicators such as the consumer confidence index, PMI, and GDP can affect the freight volume and shipping company costs on the European line [46]. 3. Market Analysis - **Shipping Situation Before Tariff Negotiations**: After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on April 2, China's exports to the US declined significantly. Shipping companies transferred some US line capacity to the European line, causing the shipping price to fall by over 40% in April [50]. - **Shipping Situation After Tariff Negotiations**: After the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement took effect on May 12, the shipping capacity in June decreased slightly compared to the beginning of May. The main shipping companies on the European line significantly increased their quotes for late June, and the settlement price in June is expected to be between 1900 - 2000 points [54]. - **Impact of the Iran - Israel Conflict on Prices**: On June 13, the European line price rose due to the Iran - Israel conflict. The conflict led to a more than 10% increase in crude oil prices, which is expected to drive up the total cost of the European line by 4%. The continuous conflict may support the European line price in the long - term, but the sustainability of the price increase is questionable [55]. 4. Operation Suggestions - The 06 contract has entered the delivery month, and the final delivery price is expected to be around 1900 - 1950 points. The 7 - month market may see an increase in both supply and demand. The 8 - month contract has room for shipping companies to hold up prices. The 10 - month contract may be the lowest price of the year [57]. - It is recommended to short - allocate the 10 - month off - season contract on rallies. If the price difference between the 10 and 12 contracts further narrows, an arbitrage strategy can be implemented [57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current ECO8 contract is trading at a discount to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the potential logic of scenario two. This year, European route trading tends to follow a cycle of "front - running - logic reinforcement - losses." It is recommended to value the "fault - tolerance" space of far - month contracts, formulate far - month positive spreading strategies based on historical delivery data, and avoid over - relying on short - term sentiment. The core is to first grasp marginal changes and then determine the trend direction. The 12 - 4 positive spread should be held [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1870, down 10.47% from the previous value; the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is 1342, up 8.00%. SCFI - US West is 2772, down 32.72%; SCFIS - US West is 2083, down 28.37%; SCFI - US East is 5352, down 20.65%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1835, down 0.49%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1937, up 14.14%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3063, down 3.98% [4] - **Forward Contracts**: For EC series contracts, such as EC2506, the current value is 1888.1, up 0.27% from the previous value; EC2508 is 1772.0, down 5.49%. In terms of positions, EC2506's current position is 2776, a decrease of 585 from the previous value; EC2508's current position is 44791, a decrease of 2262 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The current value of the 10 - 12 monthly spread is 467.4, a decrease of 37.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is - 152.9, an increase of 7.2; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 306.5, a decrease of 13.8 [4] 2. Market Review - **Spot Market**: In late June, leading airlines were eager to raise prices. COSCO's offline quote was 4200, CMA's was 4250, ONE's was 3000, MSC proposed a price increase to 3900 with an offline price of 3260. The spot freight rate continued to rise this week, and the quotes for European base ports in late June reached 2800 - 3200 US dollars/40 - foot container. The price increase is expected to continue until mid - to - late July. In early July, WSK reported a price of 3400, HPL reported 4350, CMA reported 4650, and ONE reported 4000 [7] - **Futures Market**: Last week, the US route freight rate declined, but the European route did not follow due to its own peak - season pattern. European route futures showed a "front - running" characteristic. For the European route freight rate from July to August, there are three scenarios: the overflow of US route capacity, shipping companies controlling capacity to stabilize prices, and interference from unexpected factors [7]