Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern in 2025 remains in an oversupply situation. The container shipping volume growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 2.6%, lower than the shipping growth rate of 5.3% [4]. - The impact of the rush - shipping in the US line on the European line is limited. Currently, the transfer of US line capacity is not obvious, and subsequent capacity adjustments need to be monitored [5]. - The 06 and 08 contracts are traditional peak - season contracts for the European line, and the shipping companies have strong bargaining power and price - holding ability. The 10 - month contract faces uncertainties after the 90 - day buffer period, and it is a traditional off - season [6]. - In 2025, the freight rate of the European line is expected to show a downward trend, and this supply - demand imbalance may continue until 2026. Short - term freight rate fluctuations are affected by tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [49]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Shipping Basics - **Shipping Market Introduction**: The shipping market is the cornerstone of global trade, accounting for over 90% of international cargo transportation. It can be divided into three main segments. In 2024, the global container trade volume reached 210 million TEU, accounting for 15.1% of the total global maritime trade volume. The container shipping volume of the Asia - Europe route accounts for 10.7% of the total container shipping volume [13][14]. - **Introduction to European Line Shipping Indexes**: The main China - Europe freight rate indexes include SCFI, SCFIS, CCFI, and the Baltic Freight Index (China - Europe). SCFI has a leading effect on SCFIS by about 2 weeks. CCFI changes more slowly than immediate freight rate indexes during rapid price increases or decreases [19][25]. - **Introduction to the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: It was listed on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in August 2023, with the underlying index being the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (European Route). The trading unit is 50 yuan/point, and the contract delivery months are even - numbered months of the year [26]. 2. Analysis Logic - **Seasonality**: Usually, 7 - 8 months are the Christmas stocking period, and 12 - 1 months are the pre - Chinese New Year rush - shipping period, which are peak seasons. 3 - 4 months and around October are off - seasons. However, during the pandemic and the Red Sea crisis, there were anti - seasonal price increases [28][29]. - **Shipping Costs**: Taking a 20,000 - TEU container ship as an example, the main costs include depreciation, loan costs, fuel costs, and port fees. Focusing on variable costs, in an efficient operation scenario, the cost per standard container can be compressed to the range of $545 - 579, corresponding to an index below 800 points. Currently, the European line index is still well above this level [32][36]. - **Capacity Supply**: Container ship construction is mainly undertaken by China, Japan, and South Korea. In 2025, the global delivery volume is expected to be 232 ships/1.89 million TEU. The overall global capacity will be in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to ease after 2026 [37]. - **Geopolitics**: Since the Red Sea situation deteriorated, about 90% of ships on the Asia - Europe route have chosen to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, which increases the shipping cycle and costs and provides some price support for the European line [42]. - **European Economy and Tariff Impact on Demand**: The demand for the European line is mainly affected by the European economy. Economic indicators such as the consumer confidence index, PMI, and GDP can affect the freight volume and shipping company costs on the European line [46]. 3. Market Analysis - **Shipping Situation Before Tariff Negotiations**: After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on April 2, China's exports to the US declined significantly. Shipping companies transferred some US line capacity to the European line, causing the shipping price to fall by over 40% in April [50]. - **Shipping Situation After Tariff Negotiations**: After the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement took effect on May 12, the shipping capacity in June decreased slightly compared to the beginning of May. The main shipping companies on the European line significantly increased their quotes for late June, and the settlement price in June is expected to be between 1900 - 2000 points [54]. - **Impact of the Iran - Israel Conflict on Prices**: On June 13, the European line price rose due to the Iran - Israel conflict. The conflict led to a more than 10% increase in crude oil prices, which is expected to drive up the total cost of the European line by 4%. The continuous conflict may support the European line price in the long - term, but the sustainability of the price increase is questionable [55]. 4. Operation Suggestions - The 06 contract has entered the delivery month, and the final delivery price is expected to be around 1900 - 1950 points. The 7 - month market may see an increase in both supply and demand. The 8 - month contract has room for shipping companies to hold up prices. The 10 - month contract may be the lowest price of the year [57]. - It is recommended to short - allocate the 10 - month off - season contract on rallies. If the price difference between the 10 and 12 contracts further narrows, an arbitrage strategy can be implemented [57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current ECO8 contract is trading at a discount to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the potential logic of scenario two. This year, European route trading tends to follow a cycle of "front - running - logic reinforcement - losses." It is recommended to value the "fault - tolerance" space of far - month contracts, formulate far - month positive spreading strategies based on historical delivery data, and avoid over - relying on short - term sentiment. The core is to first grasp marginal changes and then determine the trend direction. The 12 - 4 positive spread should be held [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1870, down 10.47% from the previous value; the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is 1342, up 8.00%. SCFI - US West is 2772, down 32.72%; SCFIS - US West is 2083, down 28.37%; SCFI - US East is 5352, down 20.65%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1835, down 0.49%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1937, up 14.14%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3063, down 3.98% [4] - **Forward Contracts**: For EC series contracts, such as EC2506, the current value is 1888.1, up 0.27% from the previous value; EC2508 is 1772.0, down 5.49%. In terms of positions, EC2506's current position is 2776, a decrease of 585 from the previous value; EC2508's current position is 44791, a decrease of 2262 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The current value of the 10 - 12 monthly spread is 467.4, a decrease of 37.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is - 152.9, an increase of 7.2; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 306.5, a decrease of 13.8 [4] 2. Market Review - **Spot Market**: In late June, leading airlines were eager to raise prices. COSCO's offline quote was 4200, CMA's was 4250, ONE's was 3000, MSC proposed a price increase to 3900 with an offline price of 3260. The spot freight rate continued to rise this week, and the quotes for European base ports in late June reached 2800 - 3200 US dollars/40 - foot container. The price increase is expected to continue until mid - to - late July. In early July, WSK reported a price of 3400, HPL reported 4350, CMA reported 4650, and ONE reported 4000 [7] - **Futures Market**: Last week, the US route freight rate declined, but the European route did not follow due to its own peak - season pattern. European route futures showed a "front - running" characteristic. For the European route freight rate from July to August, there are three scenarios: the overflow of US route capacity, shipping companies controlling capacity to stabilize prices, and interference from unexpected factors [7]