| 【中信期货航运】主力合约增仓下行,盘后MSK开舱3月环 | | | --- | --- | | 比持平于1900美元/FEU | | | 究 | 投资咨询业务资格: 工业与周期组 证监许可 2012】669号 | | 安婕锐 | 武嘉峪 | | 人业资格号: F03100682 从业资格号: F03117373 | | | 投资咨询号: 70021085 投资咨询号: Z0022651 | | | 现货市场仍处于降价周期、市场对3月淡季涨价函效果存一定怀疑、今日EC2605、EC2607、EC2609三个新合约上市。主力合约 | | | EC2604低开后中午跌幅扩大、盘中跌超5%，成交量有一定反弹。截至收盘04合约增仓，收于1179点，跌4.77%，当前持仓上涨至3.4万 | | | 手。部分合约波动较大，EC2607合约涨超12%收于1731点为盘面最高估值合约;EC2609跌22.99%收于1239.5点。 | | | 即期市场运价方面,据极羽科技,MSK3月首周运价持平于1900/2000美元。 | | | GEMINI: NSK开舱3月首周（3月6日）AE1上海-鹿特丹运价位于1200/1900 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - The shipping rates for various routes have been reported, with Maersk's Shanghai-Rotterdam rates for the first week of January at $1580/$2540 and the second week at $1560/$2500 [2][14] - The Ocean Alliance's CMA reported a rate of $1859/$3293 for the first half of January, while OOCL's rates for December were between $2730-$2752 [2][14] - The average weekly capacity for December was reported at 314,500 TEU, with January's average at 304,600 TEU [5][16] Group 2: Contract Adjustments - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the shipping index futures contract by adjusting the contract months to include the most recent 1-6 months and two seasonal months, excluding February [4][15] - The minimum price fluctuation will be changed from 0.1 points to 0.5 points to better align with current market conditions [4][15] Group 3: December Contract Settlements - The settlement prices for December contracts are becoming clearer, with the SCFIS index averaging 1589.2 points by December 22 [6][17] - The expected settlement price range for December contracts is estimated to be between 1600-1700 points, influenced by various market factors [6][17] Group 4: Future Contracts and Market Dynamics - The EC2602 contract is set to reflect the January end market prices, with Maersk's January second week rate at $2500/FEU [7][18] - The potential reopening of the Suez Canal in 2026 could increase effective capacity supply and further pressure freight rates downward [8][19] - As of December 23, the total open interest for the European shipping index futures was reported at 66,750 contracts, with a daily transaction volume of 51,004 contracts [9][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping futures market is currently strong, driven by optimistic expectations in the spot market, with the EC main contract increasing in position and rising. The market anticipates that the overall opening freight rate center of SK will continue to rise. The spot market is still in the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak, and the spot freight rate has not reached its peak yet. In the short term, the main contract is still in the process of reaching its peak and may then show wide - range fluctuations. The far - month contracts are suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations and may remain in a positive spread pattern [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Market Performance - After the EC opened, the main contract reached a maximum of 1900 points, with an increase in positions of over 5800 lots and a maximum increase of 10.42%. The near - and far - month contracts maintained a positive spread. As of the close, the 02 contract increased its positions by over 5000 lots, closing at 1871.8 points, up 8.8%, and the positions rose to 37,000 lots; the 04 contract closed at 116.6 points, up 3.4%, and the positions increased by 1634 lots. The 12 contract may decline slightly tomorrow [2][4] Spot Freight Rates - The post - market SCFIS was updated at 1589.20 points, up 5.2%, corresponding to the shipping price in mid - December at around $2250 - $2300/FEU. The spot freight rates of various shipping lines showed an upward trend. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam freight rate on January 1 was updated at $2530/FEU, a $30/FEU increase compared to the opening. The 0MA's opening freight rate in January was at $3745/FEU, a $1000/FEU increase compared to late December. The spot freight rate has not reached its peak yet, and the shipping companies may announce an increase in the spot freight rate in the second half of January [2][3][4] Market Influencing Factors - The market's expectation of significant over - capacity has eased because the resumption of navigation has not changed from expectation to reality. Geopolitical factors still have the possibility of recurrence, which promotes the overall rebound of the futures market. The last trading day of the 02 contract has a boosting effect on the contract price. There are still some disturbances in the market, such as the adjustment of spot shipping capacity, the uncertainty of the decline range after the spot price peaks, and the possible adjustment of the market position transfer [3][4] Market Outlook - It is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in the freight rates of shipping companies such as MSK in mid - to late January and whether the inflection point of the spot freight rate appears. The implementation of the Middle - East cease - fire agreement and the Russia - Ukraine conflict still has certain uncertainties. The main contract is expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the far - month contracts may remain in a positive spread pattern [4]

Pricing Analysis - The pricing for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam varies across different alliances, with Maersk's prices ranging from $1435 to $2400 for December's second and third weeks [12] - The average price for the first half of December for MSC is $1485 to $2465, while for ONE it is $1735 to $2235 [12] - The Ocean Alliance's CMA has prices between $1435 and $2445 for the first half of December, with a significant increase in the second half [12] Supply Dynamics - The average weekly capacity for December is reported at 303,900 TEU, with specific weekly capacities for weeks 50 to 53 ranging from 256,000 to 336,300 TEU [13] - In January, the average weekly capacity is expected to be 332,400 TEU, with week 2 reaching 353,300 TEU [13] - There were four blank sailings in December and four TBNs in January, all from the Ocean Alliance [13] Contract Settlement Insights - The settlement prices for December contracts are becoming clearer, with the average prices for the first half of December adjusting downwards [13] - The expected SCFIS index for December 15 is around 1600-1650 points, with a slight increase anticipated for December 22 [13][14] Future Contract Expectations - The February 2026 contract may face significant expectation discrepancies, with the last trading day set for February 9, 2026 [14] - The settlement prices for the February contract will reflect the average of prices from late January, influenced by the timing of the Chinese New Year [14] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is affecting shipping routes, with Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd launching the Cape of Good Hope network due to safety concerns [12] - The potential reopening of the Suez Canal in 2026 could increase effective capacity and lower freight rates, impacting future contracts [15] Market Trends - The delivery of container ships remains high, with 243 vessels delivered in 2025, totaling a capacity of 1.985 million TEU [16] - The market is currently experiencing a mix of upward and downward pressures, with potential risks from economic fluctuations and supply chain disruptions [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates continued to correct in the second half of November. Attention should be paid to the definition of the delivery and settlement of the February 2026 contracts by the exchange [1] - The 12 - month contracts are expected to first trade the price increase expectations, then the actual implementation of the price increase letters, and finally the actual implementation until delivery. The valuation of the 12 - month contracts is expected to range from 1700 - 1850 points, with the valuation bottom rising [3] - The February 2026 contracts may have a large expectation gap but are currently suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations. Attention should be paid to the definition of the delivery and settlement of these contracts [4] - The strategy for the 12 - month contracts is oscillatory, and for the February contracts, it is oscillatory and bullish. There is no arbitrage strategy at present [6] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Futures Price - As of November 13, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 74,055 lots, with a single - day trading volume of 41,971 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1632.00, 1170.30, 1380.70, 1483.10, 1111.10, and 1782.30 respectively [5] II. Spot Price - On November 7, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1323/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was $2212/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $2848/FEU. On November 10, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1504.80 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1329.71 points [5] - Online quotes from different shipping alliances and companies showed price changes in November and December. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 47 was $1365/2280, and in week 48, it was in the range of $2000 - 2100/FEU [1] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the average weekly capacity for the remaining 4 weeks was 293,100 TEU. In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 312,900 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November, and 5 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in December [2] - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU were delivered. Among them, 71 ships with a capacity of 1072,000 TEU in the 12000 - 16999 TEU range and 12 ships with a capacity of 253,800 TEU above 17000 + TEU were delivered [5] IV. Supply Chain - Houthi rebels stated that if the enemy resumes aggression against Gaza, they will resume military operations in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea against Israeli shipping [2] V. Demand and European Economy No specific content provided for in - depth analysis of demand and European economy other than the data - related figures in the table of contents.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The freight rate continued to be adjusted in the second half of November, and attention should be paid to the definition of the delivery and settlement of the February 2026 contract by the exchange [1]. - The trading of the December 2025 contract focuses on the rhythm, with the overall valuation support constantly rising. The final valuation range of the December contract is initially estimated to be between 1700 - 1850 points [3][4]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation. Attention should be paid to the definition of its delivery and settlement price [4]. - The strategy suggests that the December contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate with an upward bias. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's price for the 47th week is 1365/2280, and the price range for the 48th week is 2000 - 2100 dollars/FEU. Some companies have also issued price increase letters [1]. - **Geopolitical Aspect**: The Houthi armed forces stated that if the enemy resumes aggression against Gaza, they will resume military operations and the ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea [2]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in the remaining 4 weeks of November is 246,500 TEU, and the average weekly capacity in December is 338,800 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November, and 3 TBNs in December [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Research - **December 2025 Contract**: The trading rhythm of the December contract involves trading price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters. If there are three rounds of price increase letters and each round is implemented with an increase of 300 dollars/FEU, the price in the second half of December may reach 3000 dollars/FEU, and the valuation ceiling of the December contract may be around 2100 points [3]. - **February 2026 Contract**: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation. The traditional definition of the delivery and settlement price may be affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and attention should be paid to the exchange's new definition [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The December contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate with an upward bias [6]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: None [6]. 3.4 Other Data - **Futures Contract Positions and Prices**: As of November 12, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 74,149.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 57,514.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes on different dates are given, such as the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price on November 7 being 1323 dollars/TEU [5]. - **Container Ship Deliveries**: 226 container ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered in 2025 as of November 9. The number and capacity of ships in different size ranges are also provided [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 12 - month contract of container shipping index futures for European routes is expected to be volatile and bullish. The trading of the 12 - month contract focuses on the rhythm, including the expectation and actual implementation of price increases. The shipping companies will adjust supply to maintain high freight rates for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. However, the weak demand in the US line and potential ship transfer to the European line may put pressure on European line prices [7][10]. - For the October contract, the valuation is becoming clear. Attention should be paid to the actual cargo - collecting prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of the price increase in the second half of October [6]. - The 2026 annual contract may face valuation pressure due to potential resumption of shipping. Continuous tracking of the Palestine - Israel negotiation and the resumption of the Suez Canal is needed [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes and price increase plans for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam week 43 quote is 1095/1830; HPL's 10 - month second - half price is 1185/1935, and it plans to raise the price to 1200/2000 after October 15. Maersk plans to raise the price to 1625/2500 after November 3 [1]. - **Geopolitical Aspect**: The Houthi armed forces in Yemen said they would stop attacking Israeli and related ships in the Red Sea if Israel abides by the Gaza cease - fire agreement. But they will monitor Israel's compliance, and more intense attacks will be launched if Israel resumes military operations [3]. 2. Dynamic Supply - **China - European Base Port Capacity**: In October, the average weekly capacity for the remaining three weeks is 276,100 TEU. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 302,800 TEU, and in December, it is 287,700 TEU. There are 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November and 7 TBNs in December [4]. 3. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13, 20, and 27. The current freight rate center in the first half of October is about 1400 US dollars/FEU. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of the price increase in the second half of October, with shipping companies trying to raise the price to 1800 - 2200 US dollars/FEU [6]. - **December Contract**: The trading focuses on the rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The 12 - month contract will first trade the price increase expectation, then the actual implementation, and repeat this process until delivery [7]. 4. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish [10]. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern in 2025 remains in an oversupply situation. The container shipping volume growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 2.6%, lower than the shipping growth rate of 5.3% [4]. - The impact of the rush - shipping in the US line on the European line is limited. Currently, the transfer of US line capacity is not obvious, and subsequent capacity adjustments need to be monitored [5]. - The 06 and 08 contracts are traditional peak - season contracts for the European line, and the shipping companies have strong bargaining power and price - holding ability. The 10 - month contract faces uncertainties after the 90 - day buffer period, and it is a traditional off - season [6]. - In 2025, the freight rate of the European line is expected to show a downward trend, and this supply - demand imbalance may continue until 2026. Short - term freight rate fluctuations are affected by tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [49]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Shipping Basics - **Shipping Market Introduction**: The shipping market is the cornerstone of global trade, accounting for over 90% of international cargo transportation. It can be divided into three main segments. In 2024, the global container trade volume reached 210 million TEU, accounting for 15.1% of the total global maritime trade volume. The container shipping volume of the Asia - Europe route accounts for 10.7% of the total container shipping volume [13][14]. - **Introduction to European Line Shipping Indexes**: The main China - Europe freight rate indexes include SCFI, SCFIS, CCFI, and the Baltic Freight Index (China - Europe). SCFI has a leading effect on SCFIS by about 2 weeks. CCFI changes more slowly than immediate freight rate indexes during rapid price increases or decreases [19][25]. - **Introduction to the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: It was listed on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in August 2023, with the underlying index being the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (European Route). The trading unit is 50 yuan/point, and the contract delivery months are even - numbered months of the year [26]. 2. Analysis Logic - **Seasonality**: Usually, 7 - 8 months are the Christmas stocking period, and 12 - 1 months are the pre - Chinese New Year rush - shipping period, which are peak seasons. 3 - 4 months and around October are off - seasons. However, during the pandemic and the Red Sea crisis, there were anti - seasonal price increases [28][29]. - **Shipping Costs**: Taking a 20,000 - TEU container ship as an example, the main costs include depreciation, loan costs, fuel costs, and port fees. Focusing on variable costs, in an efficient operation scenario, the cost per standard container can be compressed to the range of $545 - 579, corresponding to an index below 800 points. Currently, the European line index is still well above this level [32][36]. - **Capacity Supply**: Container ship construction is mainly undertaken by China, Japan, and South Korea. In 2025, the global delivery volume is expected to be 232 ships/1.89 million TEU. The overall global capacity will be in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to ease after 2026 [37]. - **Geopolitics**: Since the Red Sea situation deteriorated, about 90% of ships on the Asia - Europe route have chosen to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, which increases the shipping cycle and costs and provides some price support for the European line [42]. - **European Economy and Tariff Impact on Demand**: The demand for the European line is mainly affected by the European economy. Economic indicators such as the consumer confidence index, PMI, and GDP can affect the freight volume and shipping company costs on the European line [46]. 3. Market Analysis - **Shipping Situation Before Tariff Negotiations**: After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on April 2, China's exports to the US declined significantly. Shipping companies transferred some US line capacity to the European line, causing the shipping price to fall by over 40% in April [50]. - **Shipping Situation After Tariff Negotiations**: After the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement took effect on May 12, the shipping capacity in June decreased slightly compared to the beginning of May. The main shipping companies on the European line significantly increased their quotes for late June, and the settlement price in June is expected to be between 1900 - 2000 points [54]. - **Impact of the Iran - Israel Conflict on Prices**: On June 13, the European line price rose due to the Iran - Israel conflict. The conflict led to a more than 10% increase in crude oil prices, which is expected to drive up the total cost of the European line by 4%. The continuous conflict may support the European line price in the long - term, but the sustainability of the price increase is questionable [55]. 4. Operation Suggestions - The 06 contract has entered the delivery month, and the final delivery price is expected to be around 1900 - 1950 points. The 7 - month market may see an increase in both supply and demand. The 8 - month contract has room for shipping companies to hold up prices. The 10 - month contract may be the lowest price of the year [57]. - It is recommended to short - allocate the 10 - month off - season contract on rallies. If the price difference between the 10 and 12 contracts further narrows, an arbitrage strategy can be implemented [57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current ECO8 contract is trading at a discount to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the potential logic of scenario two. This year, European route trading tends to follow a cycle of "front - running - logic reinforcement - losses." It is recommended to value the "fault - tolerance" space of far - month contracts, formulate far - month positive spreading strategies based on historical delivery data, and avoid over - relying on short - term sentiment. The core is to first grasp marginal changes and then determine the trend direction. The 12 - 4 positive spread should be held [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1870, down 10.47% from the previous value; the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is 1342, up 8.00%. SCFI - US West is 2772, down 32.72%; SCFIS - US West is 2083, down 28.37%; SCFI - US East is 5352, down 20.65%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1835, down 0.49%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1937, up 14.14%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3063, down 3.98% [4] - **Forward Contracts**: For EC series contracts, such as EC2506, the current value is 1888.1, up 0.27% from the previous value; EC2508 is 1772.0, down 5.49%. In terms of positions, EC2506's current position is 2776, a decrease of 585 from the previous value; EC2508's current position is 44791, a decrease of 2262 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The current value of the 10 - 12 monthly spread is 467.4, a decrease of 37.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is - 152.9, an increase of 7.2; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 306.5, a decrease of 13.8 [4] 2. Market Review - **Spot Market**: In late June, leading airlines were eager to raise prices. COSCO's offline quote was 4200, CMA's was 4250, ONE's was 3000, MSC proposed a price increase to 3900 with an offline price of 3260. The spot freight rate continued to rise this week, and the quotes for European base ports in late June reached 2800 - 3200 US dollars/40 - foot container. The price increase is expected to continue until mid - to - late July. In early July, WSK reported a price of 3400, HPL reported 4350, CMA reported 4650, and ONE reported 4000 [7] - **Futures Market**: Last week, the US route freight rate declined, but the European route did not follow due to its own peak - season pattern. European route futures showed a "front - running" characteristic. For the European route freight rate from July to August, there are three scenarios: the overflow of US route capacity, shipping companies controlling capacity to stabilize prices, and interference from unexpected factors [7]