Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the shipping rates are expected to remain weak before the holiday, with the April and October months typically being the lowest for shipping rates in a normal year [2][9] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products on January 8, 2026, which may disrupt the shipping schedule and pricing strategies of shipping companies [2][9] - Shipping companies are expected to issue price increase notices in March and April, with MSC's March rate rising to $1800/3000, CMA's to $1750/3100, HPL's to $1835/2935, and ONE's to $1620/2535 [2][9] Group 2 - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be gradual, with COSCO management indicating that a full resumption in the Red Sea lacks a clear timetable, potentially taking 3-5 months [3][10] - The current detour has become a new normal for customer supply chains, and COSCO is cautious about returning to the Red Sea [3][10] - In the first half of 2026, only four ultra-large vessels over 17,000 TEU are expected to be delivered, suggesting manageable capacity pressure if the Suez Canal does not resume operations [3][10] Group 3 - There are opportunities for arbitrage between EC2606 and EC2610 contracts, with historical data indicating that the highest shipping rates typically occur in July or August [4][10] - The adjustment of contract months will be implemented starting February 10, 2026, with new contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 being added [4][10] - The market is expected to trade with July as the peak for annual shipping rates based on historical trends [4][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, with significant influence from pre - holiday funds. After the holiday, it will fluctuate widely under the influence of expectations of price increases, rush shipments, and off - season [3]. - For far - month contracts, it's difficult to anchor the valuation of peak - season contracts, and shipping companies have a large space for price - adjustment operations. It is recommended to operate with caution. The 10 - contract valuation is moderately high, and the strategy of shorting on rallies should be maintained [3]. - For new contracts, referring to historical seasonality and the valuation of old contracts, the reasonable valuation ranges of the 09 and 07 contracts are 1100 - 1300 and 1600 - 1800 points respectively. The subsequent strategy is mainly to short the 09 contract and go long on the 07 contract, but the valuation given by the market is relatively reasonable. The 05 contract is at the off - season switching node, and attention should be paid to the 4 - 5 reverse spread form [3]. - Before the Spring Festival holiday, there are frequent position - closing operations by funds, and the market is expected to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to operate with caution this week [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Data - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1258.9, up 6.88%. The basis was 399.0, yesterday's trading volume was 36394, and the open interest was 31021, with a change of - 2006 [2]. - EC2605: The price was 1304.0, up 2.25%. The basis was 353.9, trading volume was 138, open interest was 194, with a change of - 20 [2]. - EC2606: The price was 1566.1, up 4.34%. The basis was 91.8, trading volume was 4232, open interest was 13387, with a change of - 798 [2]. - EC2607: The price was 1743.0, up 1.34%. The basis was - 85.1, trading volume was 48, open interest was 132, with a change of 13 [2]. - EC2608: The price was 1632.0, up 3.23%. The basis was 25.9, trading volume was 452, open interest was 1402, with a change of 31 [2]. - EC2609: The price was 1233.1, down 0.56%. The basis was 424.8, open interest was 133, with a change of - 1 [2]. - EC2610: The price was 1131.1, up 2.36%. The basis was 526.8, trading volume was 1230, open interest was 8090, with a change of - 218 [2]. - EC2612: The price was 1425.4, up 2.18%. The basis was 232.5, open interest was 122, with a change of - 3 [2]. 3.2 Month - spread Data - EC2604 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 307.2, with a daily increase of 15.9 and a weekly decrease of 7.4 [2]. - EC2604 - 2605: The previous day's value was - 45.1, with a daily increase of 52.3 [2]. - EC2606 - 2610: The previous day's value was 435.0, with a daily increase of 39.0 and a weekly increase of 36.7 [2]. 3.3 Spot Index Data - Spot (European Line): On February 9, 2026, it was 1657.94 points, down 7.49% from the previous period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): On February 6, 2026, it was 1403 dollars/TEU, down 1.06% from the previous period [2]. 3.4 European Line Spot Situation - Week 7: MSK's opening rate was 1950 dollars (down 100 dollars from the previous week), PA was around 2000 dollars, MSC was 2140 dollars, OA was 2300 dollars. The central rate was 2130 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the market [4]. - Week 8 - 9: MSK's opening rate remained at 1950 dollars, and other shipping companies also mainly continued their previous quotes [4]. - March price increase announcement: Last week, MSC took the lead in issuing a price - increase letter, followed by CMA, COSCO, and HPL. The European line price was announced to increase to 3000 - 3100 dollars [4]. - On Tuesday, MSK's opening rate for the first week of March (week 10) was 1950 dollars, the same as the previous week [4]. 3.5 Relevant News - On February 12, 2026, US President Trump said that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious". He also said that the meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was "very good", and whether to reach an agreement "ultimately depends on me" [5]. - On February 12, 2026, Trump said that the meeting with Netanyahu was very successful, and they discussed the great progress in Gaza and the entire region [5].

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1737.8 | 1.03% | 54.3 | 612 | | 1883 | -456 | | | EC2604 | | 1237.9 | 4.50% | 554.2 | 29296 | | 34229 | 423 | | | EC2606 | | 1533.7 | 1.36% | 258.4 | 3147 | | 13458 | 860 | | | EC2608 | | 1597.9 | -0.62% | 194.2 | 353 | | 1479 | 29 | | | EC2610 | | 1128.6 | -0.12% | 663.5 | 1355 | | 7677 | -207 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环比 | | 周环比 | ...