最近几个月，光纤价格一直在暴涨。在这个月初的时候，我们就写过光纤的涨价。 北美CSP大厂又来审厂、周末火热的openclaw、涨价的光纤 而且这种涨价不是那种温和的上涨，而是三个月内从 18 块钱涨到 85~120块钱的那种暴涨。更夸张的 是，市场上已经出现了"当日有效制"报价——就是今天报的价，明天就不算数了。这种场景，上一次 出现还是在 2017 年光纤行业的黄金时代。 但这一次，驱动力完全不同。 说明一下，本文中提到的这些价格和数据，都是参考业内公开可查的资料。 一、这三个月发生了什么 先看一下中邮证券的调研数据，感受一下这波涨价有多猛： G.652D （最普通的单模光纤）：从 18 元/芯公里 → 85-120 元/芯公里，涨幅 450-567% G.657. A2 （弯曲不敏感光纤）：从 35 元/芯公里 → 210-230 元/芯公里，涨幅 557% G.654. E （超低损耗光纤）：涨幅更是突破天际 这不是某个地区的个别现象。全球最大的光纤公司康宁（Corning），今年 2 月跟 Meta 签了一个 60 亿美元的长期供应协议。 这里列一下常见的单模光纤的型号和用途。 型号 名称/特性 主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (601869) has reached a new high, driven by improvements in the industry fundamentals, the company's technological advantages, capital inflows, and external catalysts [1] Industry Policy and Environment - According to CRU data, the spot price of domestic G.652.D bare optical fiber is expected to rise by 79% month-on-month and 92% year-on-year by January 2026, with a cumulative increase of over 100% since May 2025 [2] - The price increase is primarily driven by a reversal in supply and demand, with tightening supply due to a long capacity expansion cycle for upstream preform rods and manufacturers shifting capacity towards higher-margin products like G.654.E ultra-low loss fibers and G.657.A2 multi-core high-end products, resulting in reduced supply of traditional G.652.D fibers [2] - The demand upgrade is significantly influenced by AI data center construction, which requires high bandwidth and low latency fibers, potentially increasing demand several times compared to traditional data centers, thus driving a surge in demand for high-fiber-count cables [2] - According to Guangfa Securities, the average price of G.652.D fiber has surpassed 40 yuan per core kilometer, reaching a nearly seven-year high [2] Industry Position - Yangtze Optical Fibre is the global leader in the optical fiber and cable market, holding the number one market share in preform rods, optical fibers, and cables for nine consecutive years [3] - The company's technological barriers and large-scale production capacity provide a competitive edge in high-end product markets [3] - The diversification of the company's silicon carbide wafer business, expected to achieve mass production and automotive certification by 2025, enhances long-term growth prospects [3] Capital Situation - There has been significant capital inflow, with approximately 180 million HKD of net inflow on February 12, and trading volume exceeding 1 billion HKD for several consecutive trading days, indicating active market trading [4] - The stock has increased by 128.24% year-to-date, with a cumulative rise of 36.42% over the past five days, and technical indicators such as the MACD histogram show strong buying momentum [4] Recent Events - Meta has signed a fiber agreement worth approximately 6 billion USD with Corning, highlighting the long-term demand for optical fibers driven by AI data centers [5] - The domestic "East Data West Computing" project and significant increases in the procurement volume of G.654.E by operators further solidify the industry's recovery expectations [5]