多家机构测算了"新老划断"对于老券和新券的影响。 市场普遍认为，在新券征收增值税后，各类机构可能倾向于持有老券，因此在改革伊始新券发行时可能 提供利率补偿，从而导致新老债券之间出现利差。 "新老国债之间的利差可能达5至10个基点(BP)，且新券收益率的上行幅度可能大于老券的下行幅 度。"国金资管固收团队测算，以10年期国债为例，假定后续票面利率为1.7%，自营类账户按6%税率征 税，影响大致为10BP，而资管产品按3%税率征税，影响为5BP左右。 华源证券分析，新老政府债券及金融债收益率将出现5至10BP利差，对增值税差异进行适度补偿。信用 债相对利率债和金融债的性价比会提升，信用利差会出现一定幅度的压缩。新规或将使得企业债券收益 率与新发的金融债收益率更接近。 不同机构影响迥异 目前我国债券投资的税收制度针对不同券种、不同投资者以及不同的收益来源存在一定的差异。因此， 此次政策变化对不同机构影响存在较大差异。 对于国债利息等恢复征收增值税，市场普遍认为，存量债券(以下简称"老券")由于仍然享受增值税优 惠，相对于新发债券(以下简称"新券")具有一定优势，上周五，债市出现了显著的波动。8月4日早盘， 现券收益 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the coming week, the funding pressure is expected to ease, and the central range of DR001 is likely to fall back to the range of 1.35% - 1.40%, but there is still a probability of sporadic frictions. The funding pressure on certificates of deposit (CDs) will ease, but the supply - demand pressure remains. With a maturity scale of over one trillion yuan in the coming week, CD yields may decline with fluctuations [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Liquidity Tracking 1.1 Hotspot Interpretation 1 - The central bank's draft for comments aims to cancel the freezing of collateral for bond repurchases to promote bond market opening and facilitate the central bank's bond - buying restart. This will enhance the expectation of the central bank's bond - buying, improve bond market liquidity, optimize the demand for high - rating and high - liquidity bonds, and increase secondary - market bond supply, with more positive than negative impacts [10]. 1.2 Hotspot Interpretation 2 - At a press conference, the central bank stated that small and medium - sized banks' bond investments should maintain a reasonable level. While it is reasonable for small and medium - sized banks to appropriately increase bond holdings within the regulatory scope, they need to balance investment returns and risk - taking. Currently, the bond investment proportion of most small and medium - sized banks is relatively stable, and the risk of large - scale reduction in rural commercial banks' bond investments is small [11]. 1.3 Central Bank Operations - In the past week (7/14 - 7/18), the central bank net injected 1.4 trillion yuan of short - term liquidity through open - market operations, including 200 billion yuan of net - invested term - repurchase and 1.3 trillion yuan of net - invested 7 - day reverse repurchase. As of 7/18, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 1.73 trillion yuan. In the coming week (7/21 - 7/25), with the maturity of 1.73 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases and 20 billion yuan of MLF, and considering the end of the tax period and reduced government bond supply pressure, the central bank is likely to conduct net withdrawals. In July, the central bank has 1.5 trillion yuan of MLF and term - repurchase maturing [12][13][14]. 1.4 Government Bond Issuance - In the past week, the net government bond payment was 42.88 billion yuan, and in the coming week, it is expected to be 23.99 billion yuan, indicating a reduced supply pressure. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. As of 7/18, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 57.5%, and that of new local bonds was 51.8%. The government bond supply pressure is expected to be relatively small in the second half of July, but relatively large in August and September [16][18]. 1.5 Bill Market - In the past week, most bill interest rates declined, especially the 6 - month bill interest rates. Currently, the bill interest rate trend is still significantly weaker than the seasonal level, reflecting slow credit demand recovery [25]. 1.6 Fund Review - Funds were tight first and then eased. With large - scale net injections by the central bank, the tax period passed smoothly. On 7/18, DR001 rose to 1.46%, DR007 to 1.51%, R001 to 1.49%, and R007 to 1.51%. The stability of non - bank fund prices was stronger than that of inter - bank fund prices. Term, institutional, and market stratifications of funds all converged to some extent. The market trading volume declined, the overnight trading proportion in the inter - bank market remained stable, and that in the exchange market increased. The net lending of the banking system decreased significantly, the net borrowing demand of core non - bank institutions decreased slightly, and the net lending demand of core non - bank net lenders increased [28][32][33][39][43]. 1.7 Inter - bank CDs - In the past week (7/14 - 7/20), CDs were issued worth 947.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of 170.9 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term decreased. The issuance interest rates of CDs of state - owned and joint - stock banks first increased and then decreased, and the secondary - market yields also showed the same trend. In the coming four weeks, the maturity amounts are 1.0765 trillion yuan, 376.7 billion yuan, 598.2 billion yuan, and 907.1 billion yuan respectively, with relatively large pressure in the coming week [50][54][56]. 2. Institutional Behavior Tracking 2.1 Secondary - market Transactions - The market fluctuated significantly in the past week, with a slight increase in trading - oriented players' influence and a weakening of rural commercial banks' allocation strength. Different types of bonds had different buyer and seller structures. For example, rural commercial banks, funds, and other products were the main buyers of interest - rate bonds, while joint - stock banks, securities firms, and city commercial banks were the main sellers [61]. 2.2 Institutional Duration - The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds continued to rise, while the transaction duration of general credit bonds decreased, and that of secondary - tier bonds increased [62][65]. 2.3 Institutional Leverage - The bond - market leverage ratio was 107.04% in the past week, continuing to decline from the previous week [65].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weaker credit impulse expected from Q3, suggesting a cautious outlook for the industry [4][13]. Core Insights - Strong government bond issuance has driven a 10bps increase in broad credit year-on-year, reaching 9.1% [3][13]. - Private credit demand remains weak, with bank loans unchanged at 7.1%, reflecting subdued private credit amid a softer property market and external tariff impacts [3][13]. - A supplementary budget of Rmb0.5-1 trillion is anticipated from Beijing in September/October to address slowing GDP growth, projected to dip to 4.5% year-on-year [5][13]. Summary by Sections - **Credit Impulse and Government Bonds**: The fiscal-led credit impulse peaked due to strong government bond issuance, which has improved liquidity for local governments and infrastructure entities [3][4]. - **Future Projections**: The remaining quota for government bond issuance in the second half of 2025 is expected to be below Rmb6 trillion, leading to a reversal in the credit impulse trend [4][5]. - **Economic Growth Outlook**: The report forecasts a slowdown in real GDP growth to 4.5% year-on-year in Q3, influenced by the payback of front-loaded exports and a negative deflationary feedback loop [5][13].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **financial sector**, focusing on **credit growth**, **banking performance**, and **investment strategies** in the context of recent economic conditions in China. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Credit Growth Recovery**: In June, total social financing (社融) reached **2.2 trillion yuan**, an increase of **1.1 trillion yuan** year-on-year, marking the end of a declining trend. This recovery is attributed to accelerated government bond issuance and increased short-term loans from small and medium-sized banks, while large banks showed relatively weaker performance [1][2][5]. 2. **Weakness in Medium to Long-term Loans**: Despite improvements in short-term credit, medium to long-term loans continue to show weak growth, indicating an unstable economic recovery and ongoing local government debt issues. Policy support is needed to stimulate corporate capital expenditure and infrastructure investment [1][6]. 3. **Household Credit Trends**: Household credit increased by **270 billion yuan** in June, with medium to long-term loans up by **150 billion yuan**. The decline in early mortgage repayments contributed positively, although overall consumer spending remains lukewarm [7]. 4. **Deposit Growth**: In June, deposits increased by **750 billion yuan**, with significant growth in both household and corporate deposits. The M1 growth rate reached **4.6%**, the highest since the second half of 2023, reflecting a trend of increased demand for liquid deposits [10]. 5. **Small and Medium-sized Banks' Contributions**: Small and medium-sized banks contributed nearly **400 billion yuan** to credit growth in June, the highest this year, indicating strong demand from the real economy [5][8]. 6. **Large Banks' Performance**: Large banks experienced a rare decline in credit growth, potentially due to liquidity pressures, which constrained their balance sheet expansion [5][8]. 7. **Investment Strategies in a Low-Interest Environment**: Banks are increasingly focusing on financial investment to stabilize revenue and profits, with self-operated business contributing over **30%** to total revenue. This shift is driven by the need to manage profit volatility and ensure stable dividend returns [14][22]. 8. **Risks in Bond Investments**: Small and medium-sized banks face interest rate and credit risks in their bond investments. Aggressive strategies may lead to profit adjustments and increased market volatility [13][25]. 9. **Future Market Behavior**: As banks prioritize profit stability, trading activities are expected to increase, particularly in OCI bonds, which may impact the overall bond market [21][26]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The impact of external factors, such as trade tensions, on credit demand and social financing growth is highlighted, suggesting that future performance will depend on both domestic and international economic conditions [12]. - Regulatory policies affecting public fund investments could significantly impact banks' asset allocation strategies, especially if tax advantages for funds are removed [27]. - The outlook for the stock market remains positive for bank stocks, with specific recommendations for high-dividend stocks in both the Hong Kong and mainland markets [28]. This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the financial sector in China.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific securities Core Insights - Government bond issuance remained strong in June, reaching approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, with net government bond issuance at 50% of the full-year quota approved in March, indicating a faster pace than in recent years [7][9][16] - Container shipping from China to the US saw a significant increase in June, with tonnage averaging 41% higher than May and 19% higher than a year ago, suggesting a recovery in trade activity [7][28] - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 8.6% year-on-year in June, indicating a contraction in the housing market, while secondary home sales also declined by 2.1% year-on-year [7][45] - Auto retail sales rose by 24% year-on-year for the first three weeks of June, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales increasing by 38% year-on-year, reflecting a positive trend in consumer demand [7][45] Government Bond Issuance and Liquidity Operations - Overall government bond issuance in June was strong, with a total of 1.4-1.5 trillion yuan, maintaining a solid pace despite a moderation in special CGB issuance [9][16] - Year-to-date CGB issuance reached 51% of the full-year target, while special LGB issuance accounted for 49% of its full-year target [16][18] - Liquidity injections through MLF and OMOs were recorded, stabilizing CGB yields around 1.65% [9][16] Shipping and Logistics - The deadweight tonnage of departing container ships increased by 9.4% year-on-year in June, indicating a robust export growth [35] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) rose significantly, with increases of 39% to USEC and 28% to USWC compared to the end of May [35][36] Housing, Consumption, and Production - The decline in new home sales and secondary home sales suggests ongoing weakness in the housing market, with confidence indices remaining subdued [45][46] - Mixed operating rates were observed across various sectors, with increases in all-steel tire and petroleum plants, while semi-steel tire plants showed little change [45][46] Food and Commodity Prices - Agricultural food prices increased by 0.2% year-on-year in June, while pork wholesale prices dropped by 16.3% year-on-year, reflecting a high base effect from the previous year [78][79] - Commodity prices showed mixed trends, with increases in copper and aluminum prices, while cement and steel rebar prices declined [78][79]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong year-to-date return performance for emerging markets (EM) local debt, suggesting a favorable investment outlook despite recent geopolitical risks and rising oil prices [9]. Core Insights - Foreign demand for Korea government debt remains robust, with inflows of USD8.2 billion in May 2025, following USD7.9 billion in April [13]. - Emerging markets are experiencing a shift in foreign investment patterns, with stronger inflows into low yielders like Korea, contrasting with outflows from high yielders [9][10]. - Mexico government debt has seen significant outflows, totaling approximately USD4 billion in 2Q25, indicating a decline in foreign interest [11][12]. Summary by Sections Foreign Capital Flows - Inflows into Korea government debt reached USD8.2 billion in May, with notable investments in Korea Treasury Bonds (KTBs) [13]. - Malaysia government debt attracted USD3 billion in inflows in May, up from USD2.3 billion in April, indicating strong foreign interest [14]. - Colombia government debt saw an increase of USD436 million in foreign holdings in May, contrasting with previous months [15]. Emerging Markets Trends - The report highlights a strong performance of EM local debt, with a focus on positioning for lower rates in low yielders [9]. - Foreign investors increased their holdings in Indonesia and Hungary, while outflows were noted from India, Thailand, and South Africa [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical stability and economic indicators in shaping future investment flows into EM sovereign debt [9].

Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is experiencing uncertainty due to government borrowing, trade wars, and tax cuts [2] - Long bonds, particularly those maturing in 30 years or more, are at the center of concerns [4] - Volatility in the bond market has increased, with yields on long bonds spiking above 5%, nearing the highest since 2007 [6] - Investor demand for long bonds has disappeared, resembling the volatility of meme stocks or crypto [13] Fiscal Policy and Debt - The US is projected to incur another $22 trillion deficit over the next 10 years [3] - Concerns about fiscal spending are driving long-term interest rates up, requiring higher yields to compensate for risk [14] - Government fiscal deficit problems are a ticking time bomb, leading to higher, longer-term yields [22][23] Global Implications - A global movement of rates higher has been observed [18] - Volatility in long-term bonds poses a problem for governments, as investors demand higher yields [20] - Higher yields will affect housing affordability, auto loans, student loans, and credit card rates [21] - The selloff in longer term bonds shows investors that major governments have a huge fiscal deficit problem [22] Long Bond Specifics - Long bonds were popular when investors sought decent yields due to near-zero or negative interest rates in Europe and Japan [8] - Austria Century Bonds, maturing in 2120, have seen their price fall about 75% from their peak in 2021 [12] - Rising long-end yields have increased by some 50 basis points, signaling potential financial stress [7]

回溯历史数据，不难发现，6月利率走势多以下行为主。从2016年至今的9年时间中，有6年的利率明显 下行。 "就今年而言，资金面是'债牛'行情得以延续的首要支撑。"一位机构交易员乐观表示，"毕竟，相较于今 年第一季度，眼下外部环境变化带来的不确定性正明显加大，此时货币当局对于资金面也必将更为'呵 护'。可以看到，一季度DR007的均值和波动率分别为2.11%和0.44%，二季度以来（截至5月末）上述数 值已分别降至1.71%和0.10%，管理层的态度由此可窥一斑。" 新华财经上海6月4日电（记者杨溢仁）5月以来，受多空消息交织博弈的影响，债市利率呈现出低位震 荡走势。展望6月，收益率能否再下一城？ 分析人士认为，在关税博弈不确定性依旧较高、管理层对于资金面大概率保持"呵护"态度的大背景下， 债市仍可布局。 资金面宽松料延续 不可否认，现阶段债券收益率曲线长端的上行在很大程度上是受到了投资者对资金面的担忧影响。部分 机构担心，央行会再次主动收紧资金面；还有一些投资者担心，6月份较大规模的CD（大额存单）到期 量会影响银行体系流动性的充裕程度；也有部分投资者担心存款降息将导致银行负债流失。 除了来自资金面的支撑外， ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, focusing on government bonds and monetary policy implications. Core Insights and Arguments - **Government Bond Issuance**: Last week, the issuance of government bonds reached 2.3 trillion, leading to increased funding demand and a tightening of the financial environment [1] - **Financing Demand Trends**: Since April, a decline in financing demand has driven down funding prices, with actual interest rates rising, potentially leading to further contraction in financing demand and an improvement in bank liability gaps, suggesting a more relaxed overall financial environment [1][7] - **Government Bond Supply**: The supply of government bonds in Q2 is expected to be limited compared to Q1, with net financing reaching a new high since November last year, indicating that the peak impact of government bond supply may have passed [1][8] - **Central Bank Liquidity**: The central bank has injected significant liquidity but shows no intention of major easing, maintaining a cautious stance on monetary policy despite the current low inflation [1][10] - **Key Observational Indicators**: The most critical indicators are the liability pressure on large banks and their inventory levels, which reflect potential risks in the financial system [1][11] - **Interest Rate Predictions**: Overnight rates are expected to remain between 1.4% and 1.5%, while term rates are projected to be between 1.5% and 1.6%, indicating continued pricing of funding inventory [1][14] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Fiscal Deposits**: The accumulation of fiscal deposits has significantly influenced liquidity, with a notable increase of 1.2 trillion in the first four months of the year, which is expected to decline as the peak of fiscal supply passes [1][9] - **Market Sentiment**: Recent tightening of funds, particularly on Fridays, has affected market sentiment, with fluctuations in overnight and 7-day rates [3][4] - **Economic Growth Dependency**: The economy's reliance on external demand is highlighted, with a shift from steep yield curves to flatter ones anticipated due to weakening internal demand indicators [2][15][17] - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: Investors are advised to adapt their strategies based on the changing yield curve shapes, as the overall liquidity risk in the market is expected to remain low in the coming months [2][18] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the bond market and monetary policy in the context of recent adjustments in deposit rates and liquidity measures by the central bank [1][2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Trends** - The bond market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with yields declining due to expectations of deposit rate cuts. However, the overall market remains in a state of adjustment [2][4]. - Credit bonds have shown a positive performance, particularly in the medium to short-term segments, while long-term credit bonds have underperformed compared to their government counterparts [3][15]. 2. **Liquidity and Monetary Policy** - The central bank is expected to maintain a stable and loose liquidity stance following recent rate cuts, with potential for structural monetary policy measures to enhance liquidity [5][9]. - There was a temporary tightening observed after the rate cut, attributed to banks needing to replenish excess reserves based on a 10-day or bi-weekly average assessment method [6][10]. 3. **Impact of Deposit Rate Changes** - Changes in the deposit base directly affect the amount of excess reserves banks need to hold. An increase in the deposit base during the maintenance period leads to higher requirements for excess reserves [7][8]. - The anticipated cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is expected to release approximately 1 trillion in liquidity, although actual releases may be lower due to recalibrations [8]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Future Outlook** - The sentiment in the credit bond market remains optimistic, with expectations of further easing that could push rates below 1.4%. Short-term credit bonds are particularly volatile [16][17]. - The current yield levels in the credit bond market are at historically low levels, indicating limited protection from interest rate fluctuations [18]. 5. **Investment Strategies** - Institutions with stable liabilities are advised to extend durations to 2-4 years and consider lower-rated city investment bonds, which are expected to improve in liquidity [23]. - High-rated, liquid investments such as 4-5 year secondary capital bonds are recommended, but caution is advised due to limited protection [23]. Additional Important Insights - The bond market's performance is influenced by various factors, including tax periods and government bond payments, which can absorb liquidity [12]. - The historical trend shows that liquidity prices tend to stabilize or decline marginally within two weeks following a rate cut, although specific circumstances can vary [10]. - The secondary capital bond market has seen a significant decline in yields, indicating reduced investment opportunities [19]. - The current market environment favors certain types of bonds, such as real estate bonds and medium-duration city investment bonds, which exhibit better liquidity [22]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the bond market dynamics, monetary policy implications, and strategic investment recommendations.