Core Viewpoint - The Mortgage Market Index (MMI) for November 2025 shows a decline to 3.31%, marking a 7 basis points drop month-on-month and reaching a three-month low, indicating a trend of decreasing mortgage rates in Hong Kong [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rates - The MMI reflects the actual interest rates that new mortgage customers can achieve, which has decreased for two consecutive months [1] - The new capped interest rate for H mortgages has fallen to 3.25% following adjustments in the best lending rates by banks in September and October of the previous year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The one-month HIBOR is reported at 2.98%, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement preventive rate cuts in the first half of the year due to greater risks of weakening employment than rising inflation [1] - HIBOR's trajectory will depend on U.S. interest rates and capital flows, with predictions that it will fluctuate between 2-3% in the first half of the year [1] Group 3: Future Projections - If there is further capital inflow into Hong Kong, HIBOR may challenge levels below 2%, potentially allowing H mortgage owners to secure loans at rates lower than the capped interest rate, which could lead to further adjustments in the MMI [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has recently announced a rate cut of 0.25%, impacting the Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR) [1] - The latest one-month HIBOR related to mortgage loans is reported at 3.13%, an increase of 15 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - With the current large bank mortgage interest rate set at H plus 1.3%, the mortgage interest rate stands at 4.43%, which is above the capped interest rate of 3.25% [1] Group 2 - Homeowners are likely to use the capped interest rate of 3.25% for mortgage calculations due to the current rates [1] - For a loan amount of 4 million HKD over a 25-year term at an interest rate of 3.25%, the monthly repayment is calculated to be 19,493 HKD [1] - The three-month HIBOR is reported at 3.09%, an increase of 10 basis points from the previous trading day [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5% aligns with market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes [1] - HSBC has announced that its prime rate will remain at 5.25%, which is also in line with market expectations, suggesting that Hong Kong banks will likely follow suit [1] - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a recovery, driven by significantly reduced mortgage rates, lower housing costs, and increased demand for purchasing over renting [1] Group 2 - There is an expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice this year, potentially bringing the rate below 4% and gradually down to the low 3% range [1] - The anticipated decrease in U.S. interest rates is expected to lead to a corresponding reduction in Hong Kong's prime rate, which could drop by an additional 0.25% after a previous reduction of 0.625% [1] - The expected decline in the capped interest rate for mortgages in Hong Kong to 3.25% will lower income requirements for mortgage applicants, further supporting the local property market [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong dollar is approaching the weak end of its trading band at 7.85, which may trigger the Monetary Authority to intervene in the market [2] - The significant disparity between Hong Kong and U.S. interest rates has led to increased arbitrage activities, and seasonal factors may contribute to a rise in Hong Kong interbank rates [2] - Despite the expected rise in interbank rates, it is anticipated that Hong Kong's mortgage rates will remain lower than levels seen before May of this year, fluctuating mainly between 1.84% and 2% to 3% [2]