The semiconductor industry’s undisputed leader, Nvidia (NVDA) is reportedly facing delays in releasing its new gaming GPUs. The GPUs were scheduled for release this year, but that has been delayed due to an ongoing supply crunch in the memory segment. If a new gaming GPU is not released this year, it would be the first time in three decades. The company has chosen to focus on memory supply, which is facing a crisis driven by demand for artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators. Nvidia is also cutting pro ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's H200 AI chip sales to China are currently stalled due to a pending U.S. national security review, despite President Donald Trump's approval for exports nearly two months ago [1] Group 1 - The approval for Nvidia's H200 AI chip exports to China was granted by President Trump, but the sales remain in limbo [1] - The delay in sales is attributed to a national security review by the U.S. government [1]

Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that the increasing demand for AI is driving a significant rise in the need for advanced memory solutions [1][2] Group 1: AI Demand and Memory Needs - The future of AI will be influenced by memory requirements as much as by computing power, with modern AI models necessitating high-speed processing and increased memory capacity [2] - Nvidia is heavily reliant on partnerships with major HBM suppliers to meet the soaring demand for memory this year [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Manufacturing and Capacity - Huang refuted claims that the U.S. has taken 40% of Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing capacity, stating that global chip production is expanding with new capacities being added in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, while Taiwan remains a crucial manufacturing hub [4] - TSMC is identified as Nvidia's irreplaceable foundry partner, with expectations for significant capacity scaling over the next decade, primarily in Taiwan alongside international expansion [5] Group 3: Regulatory and Market Dynamics - Huang dismissed rumors regarding the approval of Nvidia's H200 AI chips in China, clarifying that no orders have been placed and final clearance is still pending [6] - The H200 chip has become a focal point in U.S.-China tech tensions, with reports indicating that while U.S. shipments are approved, China has not fully cleared imports, leading to a gray market where servers with H200 GPUs are sold at a premium [7] - Chinese technology firms reportedly placed orders for over 2 million H200 chips last month, significantly exceeding Nvidia's available supply [8] Group 4: Stock Performance - Nvidia shares closed up 0.52% at $192.51 on Thursday, followed by a 0.71% decline in after-hours trading to $191.15, reflecting a favorable price trend across various time horizons [8]

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell to an 11-1/2-year low of 84.5 in January, weaker than expectations of 90.6. Also, the U.S. November S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. rose +1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.2% y/y. In addition, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose to -6 in January, slightly weaker than expectations of -5.In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed, with the S&P ...

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is positioned as a leader in the AI infrastructure buildout, which CEO Jensen Huang describes as the largest in human history, emphasizing its multi-layer platform shift that encompasses various sectors [2][3]. Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Market Position - CEO Jensen Huang highlighted AI as a multi-layer platform shift, impacting energy, chips, data centers, models, and applications, which is driving demand across multiple industries [2]. - NVIDIA's sustained capital expenditure (capex) and software-led monetization strategies are expected to support its durability beyond short-term GPU cycles [3]. - The company is witnessing significant global venture capital investment exceeding $100 billion into AI-native startups, indicating strong future demand for computing resources [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Challenges - NVIDIA is facing near-term geopolitical challenges, particularly regarding its plans to sell the H200 AI chip in China, where customs restrictions have created uncertainty despite U.S. export approvals [4]. - The server partner Inventec reported that shipments to China are currently "stuck on the China side," further complicating revenue visibility from the region [4]. Group 3: Business Focus - NVIDIA specializes in designing GPUs and accelerated computing platforms that cater to various markets, including gaming, data centers, AI software, networking, and automotive [5].

Core Insights - Nvidia has demonstrated operational dominance, with stock performance characterized by sharp rallies and healthy pauses, maintaining an uptrend despite recent dips [1][4][5] - The company has transitioned from a graphics specialist to a leader in AI data centers, with a current market capitalization of nearly $4.6 trillion [2][3] Financial Performance - Nvidia's Q3 revenue grew 62.5% year-over-year to $57.01 billion, with adjusted EPS rising 60.5% to $1.30, indicating strong execution [13] - The data center segment saw sales jump 66% to $51.2 billion, while networking revenue surged 162% to $8.2 billion [14] - Analysts forecast Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue at $65.6 billion, with EPS expected to grow 69.4% year-over-year to $1.44 [16] Market Position and Analyst Sentiment - Cantor Fitzgerald has named Nvidia a "top pick," suggesting the recent pullback presents an attractive entry point, with demand trends stabilizing and a new product cycle approaching [4][17] - Tigress Financial raised its price target for Nvidia to $350, emphasizing its dominance in data center computing and potential in autonomous driving and healthcare [18][19] - Overall, analysts maintain a consensus rating of "Strong Buy," with 44 out of 48 analysts recommending this rating [20] Strategic Developments - Nvidia plans to resume H200 AI chip shipments to China by mid-February, boosting investor confidence despite regulatory risks [8] - The company has a significant $500 billion order backlog tied to chips and networking, with a large portion expected to materialize in 2026 [22] - Nvidia is expanding into CPUs, software, and inference through strategic partnerships, enhancing its market position [22][24]

Exxon Mobil Corporation - ExxonMobil updated its corporate plan through 2030, raising its outlook for earnings and cash flow growth by $5 billion each compared to its previous forecast [2] - The company now expects to deliver $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth by 2030, relative to 2024 levels, while maintaining flat capital spending [2] - Exxon Mobil shares rose 1.1% to close at $119.42 on Tuesday [5] NVIDIA Corporation - NVIDIA expects to begin shipping its second-most powerful AI chip, H200, to China in mid-February, fulfilling initial orders with existing chips [4] - Initial shipments are expected to include 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules, representing around 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips [4] - NVIDIA shares climbed 3% to close at $189.21 during the session [5] iShares MSCI India ETF - The iShares MSCI India ETF rose 0.5% during the session [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia (NVDA) is positioned as a major beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom, driven by strong demand for its advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) [1] Market Pressure and Competition - The stock has faced pressure due to concerns over AI valuations and increasing competition from companies like Broadcom (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Google's tensor processing units (TPUs) [2] - Nvidia is also dealing with uncertainties regarding chip exports to China amid geopolitical tensions [2] Analyst Sentiment - Despite market pressures, several analysts maintain a bullish outlook on Nvidia, citing its strong execution, innovation, and dominant position in the AI GPU market [3] - TipRanks' AI Analyst has an "outperform" rating on NVDA with a price target of $205 [3] Analyst Insights - **Vivek Arya – Bank of America** - Arya reiterated a buy rating with a price target of $275, emphasizing Nvidia's competitive edge and upcoming Blackwell-backed LLMs expected in early 2026 [4][6] - He noted a $500 billion revenue opportunity for Blackwell, Rubin, and networking for 2025-2026, with recent deals with OpenAI and Anthropic representing potential upside [7][8] - **Stacy Rasgon – Bernstein** - Rasgon also holds a buy rating with a price target of $275, highlighting the potential upside in the $500 billion outlook for Blackwell and networking sales [9][10] - He believes Nvidia is about two years ahead of Google's TPU program and that its programmable platform solutions are superior for cloud AI infrastructure [11][12] - Rasgon mentioned ongoing uncertainty regarding licenses to ship H200 AI chips to China and the implications of a 25% revenue sharing with the U.S. government [13] - **Blayne Curtis – Jefferies** - Curtis reaffirmed a buy rating with a price target of $250, citing Nvidia's technology moat and growth potential amid ASIC adoption [15][16] - He expects significant revenue from the new CPX chip in 2027 and has raised his EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 to $7.82 and $9.50, respectively [18]

Group 1 - Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) is interested in acquiring Nvidia's H200 AI chip following the Trump administration's approval for Nvidia to export chips to China [1] - Chinese companies, including Alibaba, are awaiting government approval to import Nvidia's chips, which would be significant for Alibaba and other tech firms as they currently use H20 chips that are nearly six times slower than the H200 chips [2] - The Chinese government recently met with representatives from Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent to evaluate the demand for H200 chips, which are essential for training AI models more efficiently [3] Group 2 - Wall Street has mixed opinions on Alibaba's stock, with Arete downgrading it to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $172, while Susquehanna maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $190 [4] - Despite recognizing Alibaba's potential as an investment, some analysts believe that other AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk [5]

Regulatory Approval & Financial Impact - President Trump granted Nvidia permission to ship its H200 AI chip to China [1] - Nvidia could regain billions of dollars in lost business [1] - The sales would only go to approved customers [1] Competitive Landscape - Chip makers such as Intel and AMD would also be eligible [1] Deal Terms - In exchange for the permission, Nvidia would give a 25% cut of the sales [1]