ab 14 November 2025 Global Research Our latest 2026-27 China macro outlook In our baseline, we expect China's GDP growth to slow modestly to 4.5% in 2026. We expect exports to decelerate in 2026, leading to a much narrower growth contribution from net exports. Overall domestic activities are likely to stay largely resilient, with the property downturn likely to continue albeit with smaller contractions; consumption to maintain a modest, but softer pace; and infrastructure and manufacturing investment to rec ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of various sectors in the Chinese consumer market, particularly focusing on e-commerce platforms like Tmall, Taobao, and JD. The overall growth across most sectors is described as muted, with specific categories showing significant declines in year-over-year (YoY) growth rates [1][12]. Category Performance - **Supplements/Infant Milk Formula/Dairy**: - Supplements grew by 9% YoY, Infant Milk Formula (IMF) by 2%, and Dairy by 1% [1][12]. - **Declining Categories**: - Beer saw a decline of 19%, Beauty products declined by 9%, Small kitchen appliances by 7%, Sportswear by 6%, and Sports shoes by 4% YoY [1][12]. - **Flat Performance**: - Pet foods and Women's clothing remained flat YoY [1][12]. Brand Performance - **Domestic vs. MNC Brands in Cosmetics**: - Multinational Corporations (MNCs) outperformed local brands in October, attributed to easier bases and favorable platform support. Estee Lauder and Kose led with 33% and 32% YoY growth, respectively [2][29]. - Local brands like Mao Geping and Botanee grew by 33% and 11% YoY, while Proya and Giant saw declines of 24% and 25% YoY [2][28][29]. Sportswear Insights - Niche MNC brands continued to outperform larger brands, with product cycles playing a significant role in performance disparities. For instance, Adidas showed solid momentum, while Nike did not perform as well [3]. - Weather-sensitive brands like Bosideng and Uniqlo experienced growth due to colder weather in Northern China [3]. Sales Recognition Practices - The growth rates for October may be distorted due to sales recognition practices related to pre-sales and returns during the Double-11 shopping festival. A combined analysis of October and November data is recommended for a clearer picture [7]. Notable Brand Performers - **Outperforming Brands**: Lululemon, Adidas, Roborock, Pop Mart, and Maogeping [8]. - **Underperforming Brands**: QuadHA, Nutrilon, Fancl, Carlsberg, and Comfy [8]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of omni-channel strategies being executed by brands, indicating that online sales may not fully reflect overall performance due to offline sales channels [3]. - The performance of various categories is further detailed in the exhibits, showing YoY trends and market share changes for key brands in the infant milk formula and supplements sectors [19][20][22][25]. Conclusion - The overall consumer market in China is experiencing stagnant growth with significant variances across categories and brands. MNCs are generally outperforming local brands, particularly in cosmetics, while certain sectors like sportswear are seeing a bifurcation in performance based on brand strategies and external factors like weather.

Data Summary - In the first three quarters of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365,877 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 and 1.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the entire previous year respectively [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has shown significant effects, with retail sales of furniture increasing by 21.3%, and home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as cultural and office supplies, growing by 25.3% and 19.9% respectively, indicating a notable acceleration compared to the previous year [1] - As of September 10, over 8.3 million applications for the "old-for-new" car policy have been submitted nationwide, averaging over 30,000 applications per day [1] Case Study - In a Beijing auto dealership, various cars displayed prominent subsidy tags, attracting many customers. A customer noted that the combination of new energy vehicle subsidies and "old-for-new" incentives resulted in a total discount of 20,000 yuan [2] - The fourth quarter has seen the allocation of 69 billion yuan in national subsidies, completing the distribution of 300 billion yuan in central funds for the "old-for-new" policy this year, which supports the upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival [2] - The combination of "old-for-new" and national subsidies has significantly stimulated consumer enthusiasm, leading to a vibrant consumption market and an optimization of consumption structure, with high-efficiency and smart home appliances seeing sustained high growth in retail sales [2] Expert Commentary - According to an expert from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 330 million people have applied for the "old-for-new" policy from January to August, driving related sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan and supporting a 4.5% growth in retail sales of consumer goods [3] - The policy has notably promoted the upgrade of consumer goods, invigorating the market and improving residents' quality of life, while also accelerating product and capital turnover for enterprises [3] - The current period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, with an emphasis on enhancing consumer capacity and demand, necessitating local governments to implement measures to stimulate consumption and optimize policies across various dimensions [3]

Core Insights - Singles' Day, celebrated on November 11, has evolved into the world's largest shopping festival, generating over US$150 billion in sales, reflecting a significant cultural and commercial transformation due to the rise in singlehood [2] - The event is crucial for gauging the broader economic health of China, especially amid weak consumption and economic challenges [3][4] - Chinese retailers are extending the Singles' Day shopping period to nearly five weeks to stimulate consumer interest in a sluggish economy [4] Economic Context - Weak consumption has been a significant concern for the Chinese economy this year, influenced by U.S. trade policies and a persistent property market crisis [3] - Recent government stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and increased liquidity for banks, are expected to enhance consumer confidence and spending during the Singles' Day period [6] Early Shopping Trends - Early shopping trends for this year have shown positive signs, with Alibaba reporting a more than seven-fold increase in presales of home appliances during the first hour compared to last year [5] - JD.com also noted double-digit growth in transaction volume from October 14 to October 31, with record sales in consumer electronics and home appliances [5] Investment Opportunities - Several ETFs are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the Singles' Day shopping event, including: - Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF (CHIQ), which tracks the MSCI China Consumer Discretionary Index [8] - KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB), providing exposure to the Chinese Internet market [9] - First Trust Dow Jones International Internet ETF (FDNI), measuring the performance of major non-U.S. international companies in the Internet industry [10] - EMQQ The Emerging Markets Internet ETF (EMQQ), focusing on growth in Internet and e-commerce activities in developing markets [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady growth of the consumer market in Guizhou Province, with a 3.8% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters of the year [1] - Retail sales of limited consumer goods increased by 5.1%, surpassing the national average by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a robust performance in the wholesale and retail sectors [1] - The province has implemented national subsidy policies to promote the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, resulting in significant consumer engagement and a total consumption boost of 497.62 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - New service consumption potentials are being released, with new business formats like boutique coffee and new tea drinks growing by 52.8% in the first three quarters [2] - The government has issued implementation opinions to enhance the quality of service consumption in areas such as dining, tourism, and elderly care [2] - E-commerce is thriving, with online retail sales reaching 1,049.3 billion yuan, marking a 12.6% increase, supported by initiatives like the "Ten Hundred Thousand" project [2] Group 3 - The province has accelerated innovation in consumption scenarios, creating 140 commercial circles and 116 pedestrian streets, enhancing the shopping experience for consumers [3] - Specific measures to boost consumption include extending the old-for-new policy, optimizing vehicle replacement subsidies, and implementing support policies for various industries [3] - The introduction of a tax refund policy for outbound travelers has improved shopping convenience for international visitors, further stimulating local consumption [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China Economics** sector, focusing on inflation trends and economic indicators in the Asia Pacific region. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends**: - CPI increased to **0.2% YoY** in October 2025, rebounding from **-0.3%** in September, attributed to a "super Golden Week" which boosted food and service prices [8][6][4] - Core CPI rose to **1.2% YoY**, up from **1.0%** in September, driven by higher gold prices and a low base effect [8][6][4] 2. **Producer Price Index (PPI) Developments**: - PPI showed a slight increase of **0.1% MoM**, compared to **0%** previously, influenced by higher imported prices in non-ferrous metals, particularly copper [8][6][4] - Overall, producer prices remained stable, with commodity prices supported by disciplined production practices [8][6][4] 3. **Inflation Outlook**: - The outlook for inflation remains stable yet lukewarm, with expectations of largely stable inflation data for November and December as the low base effect diminishes [4][8][6] - Anti-involution measures are expected to provide a floor for sequential momentum in inflation [4][8][6] 4. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - Non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, are experiencing strong demand due to supply constraints and global demand driven by AI advancements [3][8] - Prices for daily sundry articles reached a **15-year high of 0.7% MoM**, likely due to transient demand from promotional events [3][8] Additional Important Information - The report includes a detailed summary table of CPI and PPI changes over recent months, highlighting significant fluctuations in various categories such as food, non-food, and core indices [6][8] - The analysis emphasizes the impact of seasonal effects and promotional events on price movements, which may not be sustainable in the long term [2][3][8] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape in China and the broader Asia Pacific region.

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has lowered its price target on Whirlpool (WHR) to $60 from $70 and maintains an Underperform rating following the company's Q3 performance and revised guidance [1] Financial Performance - Whirlpool reported Q3 adjusted EBIT of $180 million [1] - The company has cut its 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance to approximately $800 million from $900 million [1] - Free cash flow guidance has also been reduced to about $200 million from $400 million [1] Forecast Adjustments - Following the Q3 report, Bank of America has lowered its 2025 EBITDA forecast by 8% and its 2026 EBITDA forecast by 6% [1] - The adjustments reflect a weaker gross margin outlook for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - SharkNinja Inc. is positioned for potential growth due to improving macroeconomic conditions, including consumer spending and anticipated interest rate cuts, which could enhance demand for housing-related appliances [1][2]. Economic Context - Recent trends indicate a rise in U.S. retail sales, averaging a 0.6% monthly increase over the past quarter, suggesting a return of consumer resilience beneficial for SharkNinja [3]. - Goldman Sachs has expressed a bullish outlook on the retail sector, supporting the notion that lower inflation and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts will boost consumer confidence and spending [2]. Housing Market Exposure - SharkNinja's customer base includes new and existing homeowners, making it significantly exposed to the real estate cycle, which presents both risks and opportunities [4]. - Building permits in the U.S. are at their lowest since 2020, indicating a decline in new-home demand, which has contributed to SharkNinja's stock trading at 73% of its 52-week high [5]. Stock Performance and Sentiment - SharkNinja's stock recently experienced a 5.3% rally in one week, with a decrease in short interest by 4.9%, indicating a potentially bullish market sentiment [7][8]. - The company's Q2 2025 earnings report showed an EPS of $0.97, exceeding the forecast of $0.78 by 24%, reinforcing investor confidence [9]. Future Earnings and Valuation - Analysts project a 12-month stock price forecast of $126.71, representing a 35.7% upside from current levels, with a consensus EPS estimate for Q3 2025 of $1.42, a 46% increase from the previous quarter [10][11]. - SharkNinja currently trades at a P/E ratio of 25.5x, which is a premium compared to the retail sector average of 18.9x, indicating that the market expects growth but has not fully priced in the potential upside [11][12]. Long-term Outlook - SharkNinja is seen as emerging from a period of unjustified weakness, with accelerating earnings momentum and favorable macroeconomic conditions, making it an attractive option for medium- to long-term investors [13]. - The company is positioned for a sustained rally into 2026, driven by earnings expansion and potential multiple expansion [12].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, particularly the industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales sectors, as well as GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: China's Q3 GDP growth moderated to 4.8% year-on-year (yoy) from 5.2% in Q2, slightly above market consensus of 4.7% but in line with forecasts. Sequentially, GDP growth showed a slight acceleration to 1.1% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) non-annualized in Q3 from 1.0% in Q2 [1][10][20]. 2. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production (IP) growth rose significantly to 6.5% yoy in September, exceeding expectations, driven by stronger exports and increased auto output. Sequentially, IP gained 1.4% month-over-month (mom) non-annualized in September [3][13][20]. 3. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: FAI growth remained depressed at -0.5% year-to-date (ytd) yoy in September, with a notable single-month decline of -6.7% yoy. This was attributed to ongoing "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged downturn in the property sector [8][14][20]. 4. **Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% yoy in September from 3.4% in August, impacted by weaker offline sales and the fading effectiveness of the consumer goods trade-in program. Online sales showed slight improvement [9][15][20]. 5. **Services Sector**: The Services Industry Output Index remained stable at 5.6% yoy in September, indicating resilience in the services sector despite challenges in retail sales [16][20]. 6. **Property Market**: The property market continued to show weakness, with significant year-on-year declines in new home starts (-14.4%) and property sales (-10.5% in volume) [11][18][20]. 7. **Unemployment Rates**: The nationwide unemployment rate decreased slightly to 5.2% in September from 5.3% in August, although youth unemployment remains a concern at 18.9% for the 16-24 age group [19][20]. Adjustments to Economic Forecasts - Full-year real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 4.9% and 4.3%, respectively, reflecting adjustments based on Q3 GDP outcomes and historical data revisions. The growth target of "around 5%" for the year remains on track despite US-China tensions [1][20][37]. Additional Important Insights - The effectiveness of existing easing measures is diminishing, necessitating targeted easing to ensure stable growth and employment in the coming quarters [20]. - The majority of recent easing measures' growth impulses are expected to materialize in late 2025 or early 2026 [20]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its outlook.

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's foreign trade has shown resilience and growth amidst global changes, achieving significant structural improvements and enhancing its trade strength [1][3]. Trade Volume and Growth - The scale of China's goods trade has continuously expanded, surpassing $5 trillion and $6 trillion, with a projected total of $6.16 trillion in 2024, marking a 32.4% increase compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [6]. - The service trade is expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2024, ranking second globally [8]. Trade Structure Optimization - The export share of high-tech products in goods trade reached 18.2%. Exports of "new three items" such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products are projected to grow 2.6 times by 2024 compared to 2020 [12]. - Knowledge-intensive service trade is expected to increase by 38% from 2020 levels, with digital delivery services' import and export volume growing by nearly 40% [12]. Diversification and Resilience - China's foreign trade has become more resilient and diversified, with ASEAN being the largest trading partner for five consecutive years. China is among the top three trading partners for over 150 countries and regions [15]. - The trade volume with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative is projected to exceed 50% in 2024 [15]. Supply Chain and Economic Support - The industrial and supply chains in China's foreign trade have become more complete and flexible. Events like the China International Import Expo and the Consumer Goods Expo serve as bridges for international economic cooperation [17]. - China's foreign trade remains a significant contributor to global trade growth, and the Chinese economy is a key support for global economic recovery [17].