投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：上涨 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡上涨。沪深京三市全天成交额 31770 亿元，较上日放量 5981 亿元。股 市成交金额突破 3 万亿元关口，市场情绪较为乐观，持续吸引资金流入股市，推动股指估值修复。一 方面，反内卷政策 ...

日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.08.25） 参考策略：IF2509 多单持有，买入 IO-4300-P 看跌期权保护 核心逻辑： 1.海外方面，全球央行年会上美联储主席鲍威尔最新表态相对偏鸽， 9 月大概率降息，市场基本计价价全年降息 2 次，大幅提振全球风险情绪， 有助科创类相关板块估值提升。 2.资金情绪方面，市场量能处于高位水平，融资余额稳定在 2.1 万亿 上方，融资余额市值占比上升至 2.30%，杠杆资金持续加速进场，杠杆资 金交投情绪持续升温，融资资金交易额占比虽先升后降，期末比重仍较上 周提升 0.1 个百分点。权益类 ETF 整体净申购为主，沪深 300 指数、上证 50 指数、中证 500 指数、中证 1000 指数分别净流入 428.57 亿、87.1 亿、 110.75 亿、59.41 亿。 3.政策端，新一期国常会听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新 政策情况汇报，加强统筹协调，完善实施机制，更好发挥对扩大内需的推 动作用，综合施策释放内需潜力。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 8 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：上涨 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均大幅上涨，涨幅超过 2%。沪深京三市全天成交额 25788 亿元，较上日放 量 872 亿元。股市成交金额连续多个交易日大于 2 万亿元，说明 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term outlook is oscillatory, the medium - term outlook is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For the IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is upward. The stock market trading volume remains at a high level, and investor sentiment is positive. Although there is a need for profit - taking and technical consolidation, policy support is strong, and continuous capital inflows are beneficial for valuation repair. In the short term, the stock index is mainly oscillatory and bullish [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward, with the core logic being strong support from positive policy expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillatory and bullish, and the medium - term view is upward. The trading volume of the three major stock markets (Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing) was 2640.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 168.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume is still high, and investor sentiment is positive. There is a need for profit - taking and technical consolidation. Policy support is strong, and continuous capital inflows are conducive to valuation repair. In the short term, the stock index is mainly oscillatory and bullish [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 8 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：上涨 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡上涨。沪深京三市半日成交额 18499 亿元，较上日放量 1136 亿元。消 息面，7 月 PPI 环比降幅收窄，部分行业供需关系有所改善， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is to maintain a strong - side volatile operation, and the medium - term view is to rise. The reference view is also a rise. The policy support and positive expectations of anti - involution policies drive the recovery of the stock market's risk appetite, and the overseas uncertainty risks are temporarily suspended, making the short - term market sentiment positive and optimistic. However, some stocks have achieved large gains, so there is a need for technical consolidation in the future [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is strong - side volatile, and the reference view is rising. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is strong - side volatile, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is rising. Yesterday, each stock index fluctuated and consolidated in a narrow range. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1852.5 billion yuan, an increase of 93.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The current trading volume of the stock market is above 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating that investors' risk appetite is positive and optimistic. Although the expectation of short - term policy intensification has weakened, the policy support expectation still exists. Overall, it is expected that the stock index will maintain a strong - side volatile operation in the short term [5]

Group 1: Index Trends - On August 4th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to close at 3583.31 points with a trading volume of 639.776 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.46% to close at 11041.56 points with a trading volume of 858.775 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.04% with a trading volume of 329.555 billion yuan, opening at 6637.84, closing at 6739.69, with a daily high of 6739.73 and a low of 6631.12 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.78% with a trading volume of 236.649 billion yuan, opening at 6190.34, closing at 6261.73, with a daily high of 6261.96 and a low of 6187.62 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.55% with a trading volume of 80.252 billion yuan, opening at 2748.62, closing at 2769.39, with a daily high of 2769.39 and a low of 2748.62 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 69.22 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, machinery, and national defense and military industry significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 48.53 points from the previous close, with sectors such as national defense and military industry, media, and non - ferrous metals significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 15.26 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - ferrous metals, and electronics significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 35.52, IM01 of - 107.93, IM02 of - 294.98, and IM03 of - 466.83 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 34.72, IC01 of - 96.84, IC02 of - 247.57, and IC03 of - 377.49 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 6.85, IF01 of - 19.1, IF02 of - 50.68, and IF03 of - 81.55 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.09, IH01 of 0.34, IH02 of 2.36, and IH03 of 2.52 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00 etc.) are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, IM00 - 02 was - 158.791 etc. [21]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, like at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, IC00 - 02 was - 90.0318 etc. [22]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, for example, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, IF00 - 02 was - 13.4098 etc. [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889 etc. [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for financial futures in the stock index sector is that the short - term trend of stock indices is expected to be range - bound, while the medium - term view is upward. For IH2509, the short - term is expected to be volatile, the medium - term is expected to rise, the intraday trend is expected to be slightly bullish, and the overall view is upward [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term is "volatile", the medium - term is "rising", the intraday is "slightly bullish", and the overall view is "rising". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, all stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 161.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 342 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Short - term Technical Factors**: Since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, so some profit - taking funds have a need to take profits, and the stock indices need short - term technical consolidation. The recent decline in trading volume in the stock market indicates a decline in investors' risk appetite [5]. - **Policy Factors**: The July Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. The policy focus is on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. Incremental policy benefits may need to wait for the Fourth Plenary Session of the 24th Central Committee in October, so the driving force of policy benefits has weakened marginally in the short term [5]. - **Economic Data**: The manufacturing PMI weakened in July, indicating that the problem of insufficient internal effective demand still exists [5]. - **External Factors**: External uncertainties remain, and the final result of China - US economic and trade consultations has not been finalized. Therefore, the driving force of the market has weakened marginally in the short term, and it needs time to fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view for the IH2509 variety is a shock, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the intraday view is a shock - biased upward trend, with an overall view of an upward trend. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. - For the IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is a shock - biased upward trend, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the overall reference view is an upward trend. The core logic is that the stock indices oscillated and rose yesterday, with the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reaching 1829.3 billion yuan, an increase of 63.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The market sentiment is positive, and the trading volume is at a high level. However, from a technical perspective, some stocks have risen significantly since late June, and some profit - taking funds may seek to lock in profits, so the stock indices may need a period of shock consolidation. In general, the stock indices will be mainly shock - biased upward in the short term, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the Politburo meeting [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Views Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term is a shock, the medium - term is an upward trend, the intraday is a shock - biased upward trend, and the overall view is an upward trend, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is a shock - biased upward trend, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the overall reference view is an upward trend. The market is positive with high trading volume, but there may be profit - taking pressure, and short - term shock - biased upward movement is expected, with attention on policy guidance [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued to rise, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 showing relatively strong performance Most of the basis of the four stock index futures varieties was in the futures discount mode The A - share market remained upward, with the market strength gradually increasing and the trading volume rising The Wande All - A index broke through last year's October high, and the scope of hot industries expanded, with industries entering a virtuous rotation [2] - Looking ahead to next week, the incremental funds for this upward movement initially came from a wide range of net inflows of institutional funds As the market's money - making effect accumulates, the inflow of retail investors is accelerating, and the market heat is rising The "anti - involution" narrative logic is strengthening The policy of "anti - involution" is both a short - term measure to stabilize the price level and revive nominal growth and a long - term strategic choice to build a consumption - driven economy [3][4] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Contents Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a general upward trend, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 being relatively strong The basis of the futures main contracts was as follows: IH was 1.29, IF was - 11.16, IC was - 83.59, and IM was - 100.81 [2] - The A - share market continued to rise last week, with Friday's adjustment not affecting its overall strength The Wande All - A index broke through last year's October high, and industries entered a virtuous rotation, with low - position chip semiconductors and the computer sector taking over the rise on Friday [2] Market Outlook - Next week, the incremental funds for the upward movement initially came from institutional net inflows, and the inflow of retail investors is accelerating The market heat is rising, and the "anti - involution" narrative logic is strengthening [3] Policy Impact - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission mentioned "anti - involution" again, making the top - down "anti - involution" policy thinking clearer and accelerating the pace of governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises in various industries "Anti - involution" is both a short - term measure for economic stability and a long - term strategic choice [4]