Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a stable and volatile trend after a round of rapid decline and full release of negative sentiment, with the price finding support at the 40 - and 60 - day moving averages [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the rebound of domestic coal futures offsets the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [6]. - The prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend under the dominance of bearish sentiment due to the decision of OPEC+ to continue significant production expansion in September [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 63.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons or 1.35% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.40%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.47% [9]. - As of August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 9.22 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a weekly decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.76 percentage points [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity [9]. - In July 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.5%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.3 percentage points but still in the expansion range [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10] Methanol - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a slight weekly increase of 0.26%, a monthly decrease of 3.28%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.46%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9302 million tons, a weekly increase of 31,300 tons, a significant monthly decrease of 56,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 312,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.55%, a slight weekly increase of 0.59%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.72%, a slight weekly increase of 0.41%; the acetic acid operating rate was 88.79%, a weekly decrease of 4.16%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.84%, a weekly decrease of 2.32% [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.72%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a monthly decrease of 2.67 percentage points. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 87 yuan/ton, a significant weekly increase of 249 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 21 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 650,300 tons, a significant weekly increase of 63,200 tons, a significant monthly increase of 150,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 158,000 tons. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 293,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 30,900 tons, a significant monthly decrease of 63,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,100 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a weekly decrease of 5 and a decrease of 72 compared to the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 30,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year decrease of 116,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a significant weekly decrease of 3.029 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.659 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.006 million barrels, a weekly increase of 453,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a weekly increase of 235,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 96.9%, a weekly increase of 1.5 percentage points, a monthly increase of 2.2 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.4 percentage points [13] - As of July 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 156,023 contracts, a weekly increase of 2,692 contracts and a significant decrease of 49,956 contracts or 24.25% compared to the June average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 249,973 contracts, a significant weekly increase of 22,728 contracts and a significant increase of 63,690 contracts or 34.19% compared to the June average [14] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,500 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 14,550 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,420 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,388 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | +32 yuan/ton | +8 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 475.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.5 yuan/barrel | 501.0 yuan/barrel | - 4.9 yuan/barrel | - 25.6 yuan/barrel | +4.4 yuan/barrel | [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is expected to test short-term support levels around 3200, with potential rebounds aimed at the 3260-3270 range [1][3] - The analysis suggests that the recent price movements of gold have been characterized by a downward correction, with key support levels identified at 3228, 3200, and 3175 [1][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of patience and risk management when attempting to identify potential bottom formations in gold prices, highlighting the difference in speed between bottom formations and top formations [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the US dollar is nearing a critical mid-range level, which may lead to a continuation of its downward trend, potentially impacting gold prices in the short term [3] - It is mentioned that if gold fails to hold above the 3200 level, further testing of the 3175 support may occur before establishing a short-term bottom [3] - The silver market is also discussed, indicating a potential recovery if it can stabilize above the 32 level, with a defensive position set at 31.6 [3]